全球原油市场.pdf

1、Global crude markets1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5SpeakersModeratorAzlin AhmadManaging Editor,SingaporeArgusJonathan GouldVP Crude,Americas ArgusJames GooderVP Crude,Europe&AfricaArgusArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Americas become Europes baseload supply0500,0001,000,0001,500

2、,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,000ARAs main crude source regions,b/dNorth AmericaLatin AmericaFSUEuropeMiddle EastAfricaSource:Vortexa2Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025New Americas quotes3Buzios cfr RotterdamLizaUnity GoldPayara GoldArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Europes refiners seek WTI in

3、USGC fob market-4-3-2-1012345WTI Midland delivered Europe minus USGC fob+freight,$/blArgus WTI Houston5Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025PADD 3-Argus WTI Houston at the Epicenter of Crude Price Discovery6ProductionRefiningExports12%10%10%Of Global waterborne volumesOf Global Oil Production50+comp

4、lex refineries10.0 mmb/d CDU capacity16.4pc global coking capacityOf Global Refining Capacity4.0+mmb/d exports20+major loading terminals70+destination countries9.0+mmb/d production6.0+mmb/d Permian Basin7.5+mmb/d Permian takeaway Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Permian basin Driving US exports7

5、US Tight Oil ProductionSource:EIAMillion bbl/dayUS Crude Production EIA STEO0.940.280.380.14-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.22023202420252026Components of annual changemillion barrels per day forecast12.012.513.013.514.02023202420252026monthly historymonthly forecastYrly Avg.U.S.crude oil production mil

6、lion barrels per day 01234567891020182019202020212022202320242025PermianOther regionsUS tight oilFederal Gulf of Mexico(GOM)Lower 48 excluding GOMAlaskanet changeData source:U.S.Energy Information Administration,Short-Term Energy Outlook,February 2025Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Gulf Coast T