航空燃料：未来已来？.pdf

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1、Aviation Fuels:is the future here?2025 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5SpeakersModeratorSAF&e-SAFAlfonso Berrocal VP Business DevelopmentArgusGiulia SquadrinAssociate Editor,BiofuelsArgusLouise BurkeGlobal Head of AviationArgusTim HardSVP Busines

2、s Development Energy TransitionArgusArgus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 20252EU and UK mandates could drive 1.5mn t SAF demand in 2025EU and UK mandates could drive 1.5mn t SAF demand in 20250%5%10%15%20%25%UK SAF mandate UK-TotalUK-PtLHEFA cap2%10%15%22%0.2%1.5%3.5%2%SAF mandates started on 1 January

3、in EU and UK:only firm targets to date globallyMandates set penalties/buy-outs in case of non-compliance0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%EU SAF mandateEU-TotalEU-Synthetic6%20%34%42%70%5%1.2%15%35%2%10%Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025Mandates and incentives shaping global trade flowsMandates and incen

4、tives shaping global trade flowsEurope key demand hub due to mandates,attracting global SAF volumesUS demand voluntary,incentives could boost domestic productionNational initiatives to grow SAF uptake shaping up in the Asia-Pacific regionNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificLatin America1.43.23.81.60.70.3

5、0.2-9.10.00.10.6 0.01.82.92.0 1.7SAF balances:2024,2025,2030&2035 mn t Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025SAF supply to tighten after 2034 with current targetsSAF supply to tighten after 2034 with current targets4 Plentiful supply to meet mandated demand in the early stages of the obligations Supp

6、ly/demand balance set to shift post 2034 with rising European targets More mandates(if announced),voluntary demand,projects delays could shift balance earlier-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000Global SAF supply/demand balance,000 tonnesNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificLatin AmericaVery pr