全球经济展望报告-PDF版

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经济学人智库（EIU）：2026年欧洲展望报告：贸易政策转向下的韧性考验（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Trade policy shifts tests resilienceEurope outlook 2026Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately identify risks to fiscal sustainability,currency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and multinational corporations make informed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20253Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel: 44(0)20 7576 8000 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue,16th Floor New York NY 10022 United StatesTel: 1 212 541 0500 E-mail:Hong Kong Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing Hong KongTel: 852 2585 3888 E-mail:Gurgaon Economist Intelligence 9th Floor Infinity Tower A DLF Cyber City Gurugram 122002 Haryana IndiaTel: 91 124 6409486 E-mail:Dubai Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056 Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai United Arab EmiratesTel: 971 4 4463 147 E-mail:The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025ContentsWhat to watch in 2026Key risksKey opportunities5685 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025What to watch in 2026Slowing global growth,fiscal strains and European security in the spotlightWhat to watch in Europe in 2026 Slowing global growth amid US tariffs will weigh on economic activity in Europe in 2026.The US will become a less important trade partner,new free trade agreements will make headlines and frictions with China will rise.Anti-immigrant populist parties will make the political weather in Europes biggest economies.Governments will struggle to reduce heavy debt loads amid public demands for fiscal largesse.Bond market jitters will continue.Europes efforts to back Ukraine against Russia will step up,and defence spending and cooperation will rise sharply.The impact on growth,investment and strategic autonomy will be modest in 2026,but more robust from 2027.The war in Ukraine Peace talks are stalled,but Russias military advances are costly and slow,and the Russian economy is under pressure Ukraine urgently needs funding.Europe will step up Tough decisions loom as the cost of support becomes clearerThe deficit-populism doom loop High debt loads and bond market pressures compete with public demands for more spending and lower taxes Populist parties stand ready to capitalise on mainstream governments unpopularity Drastic policy changes will be a growing business riskEuropes strategic autonomy New urgency around European security is driving a surge in defence spending,helped by Germanys fiscal policy U-turn and new EU funds Positive impact on economic growth,but capability gaps will take time to fill Rearmament will mean new opportunities for defence firmsGlobal growth headwinds US tariff deals will remain subject to change,keeping uncertainty elevated,and Chinese competition will intensify After export front-loading in 2025,external demand will weaken Slower global growth will damage export-oriented firmsEIUs assessment of the risks to businessprofitability over the next two yearsLowHigh500 kmOpenStreetMapcontributorsSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Key risksSlowing global growth amid new US tariffs will weigh on Europes economic activity in 2026Highly uncertain US trade policy resulted in a surge in front-loaded European export growth before tariffs came into effect,followed by a crash in late 2025.Export trends will adjust to a new normal in 2026,with permanently lower exports to the US.New free-trade agreementsstarting with the Latin American Mercosur blocwill gain in importance.Meanwhile,Chinese goods that the tariffs have priced out of the US are being redirected to new markets,including Europe.These will intensify competitive pressures,undercutting some producers,and could lead to new EU tariffs on China.However,consumers will benefit from cheaper imports,lower inflation and the reduced cost of credit.What to watch Most exposed to US tariffs are Switzerland(with 39%“reciprocal”tariffs),Germany(via car exports),Ireland and the Nordics(via pharmaceutical exports).The EU has trade deals with markets making up 20%of global GDPDeals are being adopted or negotiated with a further 11%as US tariff fears drive progressSources:European Commission;EIU.*Negotiations have finished,but no part of the agreement is in place yet.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.Agreements in placeBeing adopted or ratified*Being negotiatedOn hold7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Anti-immigrant populist parties will consolidate their gains in Europes biggest economiesFar-right or populist parties already play a role in government in ten countries in Europe.They are in opposition but leading polls in France,Germany and the UK,with immigration a hot-button issue and cost-of-living strains dissipating only slowly.In 2026 they will raise their profile further,and put growing pressure on the governments in these countries.The challenge for the French and British governments is how to handle large fiscal deficits,heavy debt loads and rising financing costs in this context.Fiscal policy decisions will be fraught,since cutting spending would be unpopular and easily exploited by populist parties.Higher taxes are likely.For Germany,meanwhile,the challenge is in defending a democratic system that excludes its most popular party from office.What to watch UK local elections in May,the Swedish general election in September,German state elections in September and the French presidential election in April 2027.8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Total:1,150Funds for defence spending,to meet the new 3.5%of GDP NATO target by 2029(650)Funding set aside for theClimate and TransformationFund(KTF),to 2037(100)Investments in roads,railways,education,digitalisation,energy andhealthcare,to 2037(400)Key opportunitiesThe drive towards European strategic autonomy will gain pace as the war in Ukraine grinds onA surge in investment is pumping up defence stocks in Europe,facilitated by new EU funds,a fiscal U-turn in Germany and efforts to prioritise procurement within Europe.Large sums will also go into German infrastructure,which typically has a large fiscal multiplier and creates spillover effects for central Europe.Capacity constraints will be a challenge,and Europes ability to defend itself will remain questionable in the short term,but the impact on growth,investment and capabilities will become more robust from 2027.Meanwhile,Europes efforts to influence the war in Ukraine will step up,as the US scales back its aid and becomes a less predictable security partner.But this will come at a high cost,and debates about the EUs fiscal strainsamid poor demographics and a live debate about EU enlargementwill become only more divisive.What to watch Russia-Ukraine peace talks,Europes“coalition of the willing”,procurement of cutting-edge tech from Ukraine and ongoing Russian“grey zone”aggressions in Europe.Germanys fiscal policy U-turn:1.15trn in new spendingThe government has announced spending plans amounting to 24%of GDP Fiscal plans following debt-brake reforms;bnSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.9 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Meet the EIU teamDaniel RidlerSenior analyst,EuropeEmily Mansfield is the Regional Director for Europe at EIU,leading the coverage of European political and economic affairs,and managing a large team of analysts,with the goal of producing market-leading analysis and accurate forecasts.Her specialist areas are France,Germany,the UK and Europe-wide issues.Emily joined EIU in 2011,having previously worked in France and the US.She holds a graduate diploma in economics from Birkbeck,as well as bachelor and masters degrees from the University of Cambridge.Emily MansfieldRegional director,EuropeSpecialist subjects Geopolitics,macroeconomics,democracy,productivity,technology,country risk,business environment,index building,politics,financial riskLanguages English,FrenchLocation LondonDan is a senior analyst in the EIUs Europe team,with a focus on Eastern Europe,the Balkans and central Asia.He primarily covers Russia,Ukraine and Slovenia.Before joining the EIU,he worked in several other roles covering wider Europe,most recently managing a global risk team in the private sector.Dan holds an MSc in International Relations from the London School of Economics,and a graduate diploma in economics from the University of London.Specialist subjects Political risk,macroeconomics,geopoliticsLanguages EnglishLocation London10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025Frances is an analyst in the Europe team of The Economist Intelligence Unit.She focuses on macroeconomic and political analysis of countries in Europe,with a special focus on Eastern Europe and EU policy affairs.Frances produces monthly country reports,economic forecasts,and financial and operational risk assessments to assist the EIUs clients in their investment decisions across the region.She also provides insights on the political,economic and business environments of selected countries to corporations,policymakers and private sector clients.Frances joined EIU in 2021.She holds a BSc in philosophy,politics and economics from the London School of Economics.Frances LiAnalyst,EuropeSpecialist subjects Political and economic forecasting,macroeconomic analysis,financial risk,geopolitics,country risk,migration,global economics,trade,monetary policy,EU green policyLanguages EnglishLocation LondonPrianthi Roy is an expert in macroeconomic and political forecasting.Since 2018 she has covered central and eastern Europe,euro zone countries and the Nordic economies.She also heads the EIUs proprietary Business Environment Rankings and long-term forecasts and frequently publishes white papers and hosts webinars to inform clients about the latest business outlook.Prianthi comes from a background in development economics and has a Masters degree in Economics from the University of Manchester and a Bachelors degree in Economics from Singapore Management University with a double major in Political Science.Prianthi RoySenior analyst,EuropeSpecialist subjects Political and economic forecasting,democracy,business environments,medium-and long-term forecasting,financial and operational riskLanguages English,Bengali,Hindi and French(limited working proficiency)Location Gurugram,India11 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202511Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the political,policy and economic outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2025 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Europe outlook 2026Trade policy shifts tests resilienceOctober 2025

2025-10-29 13页 5星级

经济学人智库（EIU）：2026年全球展望报告：审慎缘由探析（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025Reasons to remain cautiousGlobal outlook 2026Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately identify risks to fiscal sustainability,currency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and multinational corporations make informed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20253Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel: 44(0)20 7576 8000 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue,16th Floor New York NY 10022 United StatesTel: 1 212 541 0500 E-mail:Hong Kong Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing Hong KongTel: 852 2585 3888 E-mail:Gurgaon Economist Intelligence 9th Floor Infinity Tower A DLF Cyber City Gurugram 122002 Haryana IndiaTel: 91 124 6409486 E-mail:Dubai Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056 Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai United Arab EmiratesTel: 971 4 4463 147 E-mail:The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025ContentsWhat to watch in 2026Key risksKey opportunities5685 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025What to watch in 20262025 was“the end of the beginning”Winston Churchill,a UK war-time prime minister,described the 1942 allied victory at El Alamein as“not the end,nor the beginning of the end,but the end of the beginning”.The rise in policy uncertainty in 2025,driven in large part by the start of the second administration of the US president,Donald Trump,has accelerated tectonic plate shifts across the global economy.The impact of these shiftson the global economy,political and institutional structures,trade and investment flowswill become clearer in 2026.In late 2025,news-based measures of economic policy uncertainty have retreated from their April highs,the China-US trade truce remains in place,and US“reciprocal”tariffs for other countries have largely settled around 10-20%(and may be thrown out entirely by the US Supreme Court).That should at least give more clarity on the state of affairs.However,there are three main reasons to remain cautious.First,tariffs have risen at a fast pace to levels not seen in the modern era,and the economic effects of that are still in their infancy.Second,there remains a great deal of uncertainty over the future path of tariffs,including at the sectoral level.Third,outside of trade,geopolitical risks remain elevated,as the US no longer aspires to lead a world order premised on rising global co-operation and trade.The August 1st reciprocal tariffs push the effective rate back up to 1930s peakUS weighted average tariff rate(WATR);%Sources:White House;USITC;US Census Bureau;EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.*Includes tariffs on China,Canada and Mexico,and 25%steel and aluminium tariffs.Includes April 29th“non-stacking”order and May 8th UK-US framework agreement.Does not include copper tariffs.EIU updated Canada and Mexico tariff assumptions on July 22nd to reflect the latest data,lowering both effective tariff rates.Note.Horizontal axis extended to show change in 2025 tariff rates.190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010202005101520251010102525251616162424241515152828281919192 2 2Average rate on all importsFebruary and March tariffs*April 2nd tariffsApril 9th pauseApril 11th electronics exemptionMay12thGeneva pauseMay30th 50%metals tariffsAugust1stSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActSmoot-Hawley Tariff Act6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025Key risksGlobal growth is forecast to slow again in 2026,to 2.4%,as the trends triggered by US policy uncertainty in 2025including trade dislocation,higher borrowing costs,faster US inflation and softer global demandreach their full expression.The economic blowback to the US has so far been offset by a boom in AI investment,but signs of this surge slowing are already appearing.Personal consumption has been losing momentum and housing investment has turned downtwo important bellwethers of US(and therefore global)growth.In the US,stagflationary conditions are likely to continue into 2026,as softer(non-AI)investment and a tariff-induced uptick in goods inflation drag on growth in the coming quarters.For the rest of the world,much of the growth shock has yet to be felt,owing to the front-loading of exports to the US in early 2025.Given that prior strength represents demand brought forward,not a fundamental increase in demand,that suggests that there will be“payback”ahead.We expect a period of below-trend growth in global goods trade,which will hit exporters that are most tied into US demand the worst.This choppiness in trade volumes will compound a broader trend of slowing global demand that we expect to see from late 2025,as slowing US and global growth start to affect consumption.There will be payback for front-loadingAsias merchandise exports;US$bnSources:European Commission;EIU.*As a function of EIUs nominal GDP forecasts.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.Growth,trade volumes,institutionsHistoryTrendPotential path202120222023202420252026600620640660680700720740760Assuming recent export strength wasAssuming recent export strength wasdriven by front-loading,this is whatdriven by front-loading,this is whatthe path of Asian exports could lookthe path of Asian exports could looklikelikeAssuming recent export strength wasdriven by front-loading,this is whatthe path of Asian exports could looklike7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025Significant policy uncertainty,particularly stemming from the US,could return at any time,renewing the downside risks that dominated the outlook for much of Q2-Q3 2025.If the Trump administration launches serious efforts to impinge on the independence of the US Federal Reserve(Fed,the central bank),this would disrupt financial markets,cause borrowing costs to rise and weigh on the US dollar,akin to what was(briefly)seen in the second quarter of 2025.Meanwhile,geopolitical risks remain elevated,even if Ukraine transitions into a lower-intensity conflict and nuclear talks limp along in Iran.Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025Key opportunitiesMonetary easing,growth bright spots,AI investmentFurther monetary easing should support demand more meaningfully later in 2026,as the benefits of interest rate declines typically act with a lag.Central banks in Europe,Latin America and Asia are close to the end of their easing cycles,most of which began in 2024.We expect the Fed to lower interest rates by another 50 basis points(bp)in 2026,after lowering rates by a total of 75 bp in 2025.US rate cuts will be a modest tailwind in the Middle East,where many borrowing costs track those of the US.Even in the US,an upside risk to our outlook is the amount of capital that is currently locked up in mortgage equity that could be released as rates fall.Even as global GDP growth moderates,we expect it to be broad-based.The worlds largest economic bloc,the EU,is approaching a change in growth trend.This reflects a fiscal policy U-turn in Germany,with Europes biggest economy planning to spend the equivalent of a quarter of its GDP on new infrastructure and defence investment over the next 12 years.A new EU loan pot and some looser EU fiscal rules will also enable greater defence spending across the region.Policymakers in China,the worlds second-largest economy,will increasingly focus on driving private consumption,in a notable departure from infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus-led drives of the past.For now,this is more of a small pivot than a major shift,but a more substantial consumption-led stimulus is an upside risk to our forecasts.Capital spending on the infrastructure to support AI will continue to be a vital prop to US growth,and it will also boost capital spending and construction in the Middle East and parts of Asia,such as Malaysia and Singapore.Insatiable demand for semiconductors is bolstering the export sectors of major producers,with Taiwans economy growing by 8%in the second quarter of 2025.This boom is subject to risks and will result in only modest productivity gains in other sectors in the short term.Nonetheless,we expect this investment upcycle to continue in the years ahead.9 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025The global chip cycle is on a tearWorld semiconductor sales;3-month moving average;2018=100Sources:Semiconductor Industry Association;EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2025.All rights reserved.1995200020052010201520202025406080100120140160Dot comDot combubblebubbleDot combubbleGlobalGlobalfinancialfinancialcrisiscrisisGlobalfinancialcrisis20162016softsoftspotspot2016softspot2017/18 cloud2017/18 cloudcomputingcomputinginvestment boominvestment boom2017/18 cloudcomputinginvestment boomCovidCovidpandemicpandemicCovidpandemicAI supercycle?AI supercycle?AI supercycle?Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 2026Reasons to remain cautiousOctober 2025Meet the EIU teamChris Varvares is regional director for the Americas and head of economic strategy.As a senior member of the global forecast team,he leads the analysis of global economic trends,international trade,and the intersection of geopolitics and the economy,with special focus on the Americas.As head of economic strategy,Chris is responsible for reviewing and refining the economic analyses and modeling underling EIUs products and promoting product refinements that increase their relevance to our clients.Chris VarvaresRegional director,AmericasSpecialist subjects Economic growth,inflation,labor markets,macroeconomics,monetary policy,fiscal policy,economic modelingLanguages EnglishCailin BirchPrincipal global economistCailin Birch is the Principal Global Economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit.She is a frequent guest in national and international media,providing critical insight into global political and economic trends.She is also an experienced speaker and moderator at high-level events,who can deliver thoughtful insights and draw impactful conclusions from complex discussions.Specialist subjects Global economic growth,geopolitics,energy resource security,macroeconomics,monetary policy,emerging-market economicsLanguages English,FrenchJoshua is the principal economist for North America and global economics.As a senior member of EIUs Global Forecasting team,he also leads the analysis of global economic trends,international trade,and the intersection of geopolitics and the economy.He brings his previous experience as a senior policy-maker at the centre of the UK government to inform his advice to clients.Josh BaileyPrincipal economist,North America and globalSpecialist subjects Macroeconomics,global economics,trade,supply chains,industrial policy,geopolitics,public policy,labour markets,business environmentLanguages English11 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202511Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the political,policy and economic outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2025 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2025Global outlook 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