欧洲生物甲烷转型：市场发展、未来机遇和挑战.pdf

1、European Biomethane:A market in transition 2025 Argus Media group.All rights reserved.1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5SpeakersModeratorSophie BarthelEditor Argus BiofuelsArgusLawrence TempletonVP,European Natural Gas&Electricity ArgusKevin SchaeferSVP,Germany&Central EuropeArgusArgus

2、 Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000European Natural Gas Supply(TWh)UK&NLNorwayRussiaNorth AfricaAzerbaijanLNG-5 10 15 20 25 30 35Key grid-injected biomethane producers(TWh)DKFRDEESNLUKBiomethane supported by supply security needs2 Flexible Europ

3、ean natural gas supply has fallen Overall natural gas supply has fallen Biomethane provides local supply flexibility with additionality EU Target 35bn m/year by 2030(340TWh)2023:234 TWh production with only 47 TWh grid injected Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025All biomethane is not equal3Source:

4、Argus European Natural Gas and Argus European Natural Gas OutlookEnergy cropsAgricultural and other biological waste products Carbon intensity score(gCO/MJ(e)BiodigesterPan-European natural gas networkUpgraded biogas=biomethane(CH4)Industrial&manufacturingElectricity generationHouseholds and small b

5、usinessesTransport fuels road and maritimeRoad:CNG,LNG stationsMaritime:LNG/bunkerVoluntary use?Mandated use?Voluntaryscheme termsMandatedscheme termsMass balanceSubsidy/no subsidyFeedstock&CI scoreLocation/nationalVintagee.g.RE 100/CDPCertification(1)Upstream(3)Downstream(2)Midstream(4)SchemeBIOMET

6、HANE SUPPLY CHAINLower(26g+)Argus Oil and Future Fuels Forum 2025-5 10 15 20 25 30-50 100 150 200 250 3001Q 221Q 231Q 241Q 25Argus Waste-backed location spreads(/MWh)DenmarkNetherlandsMax location spread(rhs)Pricing influenced by feedstock,location and time4-5 10 15 20 25 30-50 1