显微镜下的骤停.pdf

1、Sudden Stops Under the MicroscopeCecilia DassattiRodrigo LluberasCentral Bank of UruguayORT Uruguay UniversityPablo OttonelloDiego PerezMaryland&NBERNYU&NBERNovember 14,202425th Jacques Polak Annual Research ConferenceIntroduction Emerging markets experience recurrent episodes of“sudden stops”Abrupt

2、 reversals of capital flows Macro level:contractions in economic activity,consumption,aggregateinvestment,currency depreciation(e.g.,Calvo et al.06)Goal of this paper:Study the micro-level patterns of adjustmentInform theories explaining macro adjustments Approach:Exploit cross-sectional patterns in

3、 firms borrowing(Khwaja Mian 08,Di Giovanni Kalemli-Ozcan Ulu Baskaya 22)Focus:Uruguay,EM featuring 2 sudden stops and rich loan-level dataSummary1.What are the channels of transmission of sudden stops?Lender channel(e.g.,Calvo 04,Morelli Ottonello Perez 22)Collateral channel(e.g.,Korinek and Mendoz

4、a 14)Risk channel(Neumeyer Perri 05,Uribe Yue 06,Hegarty et al.24)2.Are sudden stops different from regular business cycles?Lender channel more than doubles during episodes of sudden stopsConsistent with intermediaries acceleration mechanisms(e.g.,CaballeroKrishnamurthy 01,Gertler Kiyotaki 10;He Kri

5、shnamurthy 12,Brunnermeier Sannikov 14)We do not find a strengthening of the collateral and risk channels3.Are the effects of sudden stops heterogeneous?Lender channel affects more firms with high risk and in nontradable sectorLess heterogeneity for risk and collateral channelsSummary1.What are the

6、channels of transmission of sudden stops?Lender channel(e.g.,Calvo 04,Morelli Ottonello Perez 22)Collateral channel(e.g.,Korinek and Mendoza 14)Risk channel(Neumeyer Perri 05,Uribe Yue 06,Hegarty et al.24)2.Are sudden stops different from regular business cycles?Lender channel more than doubles duri