从财政僵局到金融压制：衰落的解剖.pdf

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1、From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression:Anatomy of a FallOlivier JeanneJohns Hopkins UniversityNBER and CEPRIMF Annual Research ConferenceWashington DC,November 15,2024Olivier Jeanne(JHU)From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression:Anatomy of a FallIntroductionFinancial repression has historica

2、lly been used in advanced economies tostabilize or reduce excessive government debt(Reinhart and Sbrancia,2015;Acalin and Ball,2023)Concerns that financial repression could make a comebackThis paper presents a framework to study financial repression scenariosOur framework captures different forms of

3、 financial repressionfrom open-market purchases of government debt to extracting quasi-fiscalrevenue from the banking sectorLiterature:Becker and Ivashina(2018),Chien,Cole and Lustig(2023),Chari,Dovis and Kehoe(2020),Jeanne(2024)Olivier Jeanne(JHU)From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression:Anatomy

4、 of a FallIntroductionModelUnsustainable government debt dynamics+possibility of fiscal adjustmentFinancial repression:banks purchase government debt and/or providequasi-fiscal revenue to governmentWe characterize the optimal financial repression policiesDataWe benchmark the model against data on go

5、vernment debt and bank balancesheets in advanced economiesOlivier Jeanne(JHU)From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression:Anatomy of a FallModelBalance sheets Government dt=bt+t Banks Households mt aht abt mt bt t Debts are realBanking sector consolidates central bank and depository institutionsOliv

6、ier Jeanne(JHU)From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression:Anatomy of a FallModelAssumptionsHousehold utilityU0=E0?Z+0ct+u(mt)ertdt?Government levies fiscal revenue ton households and quasi-fiscal revenue ton banking sector,at costt+tFiscal inertia:Initially constant deficit leading to dt+but there