全球供应链中断对宏观经济结果的因果效应：证据与理论.pdf

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1、The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions onMacroeconomics Outcomes:Evidence and TheoryBai,Fernandez-Villaverde,Li,and ZanettiGeorge Alessandria(Rochester)IMF|November 2024SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and Air

2、liftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I Easy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a mod

3、el to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Convincing.Need more work in this spirit!1SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and AirliftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI

4、 Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I Easy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a model to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Conv

5、incing.Need more work in this spirit!1SummaryI Isolating aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions(SCD)big&un-resolved issue.I Berlin Blockade and AirliftI Suez closings in 56&67-75I 1973 Oil shock started with Oil EmbargoI Port StrikesI COVIDI SanctionsI Challenge:SCD rarely alone/exogenous.I E

6、asy to identify micro effects(Barrot and Sauvignan,2016 Carvalho,et al.,2021)I This paper:I Propose a novel measure based on ship movementsI Develop a model to identify effectsI Recover role of foreign supply disruptions.I Convincing.Need more work in this spirit!1What is a supply disruption?I Incre