全球供应链中断对宏观经济结果的因果效应：理论与证据.pdf

1、The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptionson Macroeconomic Outcomes:Theory and EvidenceXiwen Bai1Jes us Fern andez-Villaverde2Yiliang Li3Francesco Zanetti4November 12,20241Tsinghua University2University of Pennsylvania3University of International Business and Economics4University of Oxfor

2、dMotivation Lots of interest in the health of the global supply chain triggered by COVID-19 and the Red Sea crisis.Future wars?Geopolitical tensions?Question 1:What are the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions?Question 2:And what are the policy implications?1Our paper1.Data=A new machin

3、e learning algorithm to transform the satellite data from container ships into ahigh-frequency measure of port congestion.2.Identification=A novel(and simple)model to disentangle the different shocks(supply,demand,supply chain)that drive our measure of port congestion.3.Causal analysis=Data+identifi

4、cation+SVARs and LPs inflation in 2020-2023.4.State-dependent analysis=interplay between supply chain disruptions and the changes in theeffectiveness of monetary policy to control inflation and output.2Why containerized trade?We measure congestion at container ports.Containerized trade accounts for

5、46%of world trade.Most of the rest is accounted for by bulk cargo(e.g.,oil)and specialized vessels(e.g.,roll-on/roll-off).Container ships behave as regular flights or bus lines:Regular schedules picking up/delivering containers from/to feeders.Seaports serve as international hubs for freight collect

6、ion and distribution.Routes and speed are rarely changed(e.g.,speed has next-to-no relation with oil prices).“Hurry up and wait.”3Why port congestion?Port congestion:a container ship must first moor in an anchorage within the port(random areas tolower anchors)before docking at a berth(designated spo