估算政治压力对美联储的影响：一种采用新数据的叙事方法.pdf

1、estimating the effects of political pressure on the fed:a narrative approach with new dataThomas DrechselUniversity of Maryland,NBER,CEPRNovember 2024motivationRenewed attention to political dimension of U.S.monetary policyTrumps pressure to ease affected markets(Bianchi et al.,2023)Empirical resear

2、ch:Cross-country,e.g.Alesina and Summers(1993)Estimated regime-switching models,e.g.Bianchi and Ilut(2017)This paper:Identifies shocks to political pressure on the Fed over timeQuantifies effects on inflation and other macro variables1/18motivationRenewed attention to political dimension of U.S.mone

3、tary policyTrumps pressure to ease affected markets(Bianchi et al.,2023)Empirical research:Cross-country,e.g.Alesina and Summers(1993)Estimated regime-switching models,e.g.Bianchi and Ilut(2017)This paper:Identifies shocks to political pressure on the Fed over timeQuantifies effects on inflation and

4、 other macro variables1/18motivationRenewed attention to political dimension of U.S.monetary policyTrumps pressure to ease affected markets(Bianchi et al.,2023)Empirical research:Cross-country,e.g.Alesina and Summers(1993)Estimated regime-switching models,e.g.Bianchi and Ilut(2017)This paper:Identif

5、ies shocks to political pressure on the Fed over timeQuantifies effects on inflation and other macro variables1/18this paperNewly collected archival dataPersonal interactions between U.S.Presidents and Fed Officials 19332016Amount,length,type of interactions construct long time seriesNarrative ident

6、ificationExploit variation from Nixon and Johnson administrationsSVAR with narrative sign restrictions “political pressure shocks”2/18preview of findingsWhen the President pressures the Fed to ease monetary policy.1.Inflation and inflation expectations increase gradually and strongly2.Little to no e