国际紧缩时代的美元.pdf

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1、The Dollar in an Era of InternationalRetrenchmentRyan ChahrourRosen ValchevCornell UniversityBoston CollegeIMF/Norges Bank/IMFER Conference onThe Future of Macroeconomic PolicyJune 15,2023International Fragmentation-Stylized View1/22This paperCould international fragmentation change special role of

2、USD?Quantitative theory that links trade and dollar dominance multiple steady states,unique dynamics introduce potential for regional heterogeneity Policy tools that change trade and financing patterns tariffs:between the US and China/or between the East/West currency supports:potential to“jumpstart

3、”international currency How do transitions unfold?Welfare implications?Bottom lines Dollar dominance is hard to change.Transition can be slow,until its not.2/22ModelModel Summary1.Four regions two big countries:US and CN two regions composed of s.o.e.s:Region A and Region B baseline:perfect symmetry

4、 between US/CN and between A/B2.Exogenous endowments3.Consumption is CES of all countrys goods home-bias in preferences4.Trading firms conduct all import/exports trading firms need financing(letter of credit)financing is denominated in either USD or CHY5.Big countries supply safe assets to world pot

5、entially unbalanced trade3/22Simplified Model1.Households trade safe assets internationally safe assets used to fund trading firms via search markets earn liquidity premium$jt1=Et?Cjt+1Cjt?1Q$t?1$jt?;$j=MF(B$j,Xj)B$j|z=prob.lending$r2.Trading firms need safe asset funding to complete int.transaction

6、s borrow assets from local households in search markets currency mismatch cost (e.g.expected default cost)V$j=MF(B$j,Xj)Xj|z=prob.obtaining$?r (1 X)?MF(BUj,1 Xj)1 Xj|z=prob.obtaining U?r X?4/22Simplified Model1.Households trade safe assets internationally safe assets used to fund trading firms via s