不断变化的全球投入－产出联系和需求外溢效应.pdf

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1、CHANGINGGLOBALINPUT-OUTPUTLINKAGES ANDDEMANDSPILLOVERWataru MiyamotoU of Hong KongThuy Lan NguyenSF FedIMF Economic Review Summer ConferenceNorges Bank,OsloJune 15,2023The views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as representingthe views of the Board

2、 of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,the Federal Reserve Bank of SanFrancisco,or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.1CHANGINGIO LINKAGESWorld input-output structure has changed over timeData:World Input-Ouput Table(1965-2011)Changes in international tradeChanges in

3、 sectoral compositionQuestion:To what extent does changing worldinput-output(IO)linkages affect international spillover ofdemand changes?Approach:Framework based on IO analysis2MAINFINDINGSSignificant changes in the strength of transmissionForeign value added increases about twice as much with2011 I

4、O linkagesKey for transmission magnitudeIO linkages in both intermediate and final goodsDemand compositionImplication:relevant for large literatureTime varying transmissionDemand composition matters(as opposed to aggregateanalysis)3RELATEDLITERATUREChanging trade,input-output linkages and business c

5、yclesBonadio,Huo,Levchenko and Pandalai-Nayar(2023):comovementCaselli et al.(2017 QJE),Miyamoto and Nguyen(2022):volatilityThis paper:transmission of demand changesDemand spilloverBems,Johnson and Yi(2010 IMFER,2011 AERPP):demandspillover,global trade and Great RecessionThis paper:transmission over

6、time4EMPIRICALFRAMEWORKIntermediate DemandFinal DemandUSUSROWROWUSROWSector 1Sector 2Sector 1Sector 2USSector 1MFIntermediateUSSector 2InputsROWSector 1ROWSector 2Value AddedVGross OutputQN countries and S sectorsFinal demand F is NS1Intermediate inputs M is NSNSValue added and Gross output are NS1A