经常账户分散度上升：金融一体化还是贸易一体化？.pdf

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1、Rising Current Account Dispersion:Financial or Trade Integration?George AlessandriaYan BaiSoo Kyung WooUniversity of RochesterJune 16,2023Distribution of Net Flows:1970 vs 20100246Density-1-.50.51Trade Balance/GDP1970-19732010-20131/24What Explains the Rise in Intl Borrowing/Lending over Time?Three

2、main possibilities:More country-specific shocks?Reduced financial frictions(policy&non-policy)?Intertemporal frictionsFall in static trade barriers?Intratemporal frictionsAnswer:It is mostly the fall in intratemporal trade barriers!2/24Net Trade Flows Has Become More Dispersed.2.3.4.5.6.7Median TRY.

3、02.04.06.08.1.12IQR TBY197019801990200020102020IQR Trade Balance-Y(L)Net trade flow:TBY=(X M)/Y3/24Gross Trade Flows Also Have Risen.2.3.4.5.6.7Median TRY.02.04.06.08.1.12IQR TBY197019801990200020102020IQR of TBY(L)Median of TRY(R)Net trade flow:TBY=(X M)/YGross trade flow:TRY=(X+M)/Y3/24Net Flows C

4、ontrolling for Gross TradeXt MtYt|zTBY=Xt+MtYt|zTRYXt MtXt+MtFixing the level of trade constant,TBYcft=X70+M70Y70|zTRYcfXt MtXt+Mt4/24Net Flows“Stable”when Controlling for Trade Growth.2.3.4.5.6.7Median TRY.02.04.06.08.1.12IQR TBY197019801990200020102020IQR of TBY(L)Median of TRY(R)IQR of TBY,Counte

5、rfactual5/24This PaperDocument patterns of world dispersion,as level of gross trade dispersion in net trade but after controlling for trade growth dispersion in relative priceso dispersion in outputUsing an N-country model,quantify the role of financial vs trade frictionsTrade frictions:bilateral ic

6、eberg costsFinancial frictions:debt elastic interest rate,interest premiumFind that changes are mainly due to trade integration6/24Further Decomposition of Net TradeX MY|z TBY=X+MY|z TRYX MX+M|z 0.5lnX/MUsing CES demandX=?pxP?DM=?pmP?DMore structure on lnX/M:lnXM=ln?pxpmPP?+lnDD+ln7/24Full Decomposi