能源、分裂和宏观经济——当前和未来的挑战.pdf

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1、Energy,fragmentation and the macroeconomy current and future challengesHilde C.BjrnlandBI Norwegian Business SchoolIMF/Norges Bank Conference:The Future of Macroeconomic Policy,June 15-16,2023 Oil and the macroeconomy 40 years of oil price-macro modelsI.Adverse macroeconomic effects*Commodity depend

2、enceSource of oil market shocks Volatility of shocks Policy responsesII.Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market(persistence)Coibion and Gorodnichenko(2015,AEJ:Macro),Aastveit,Bjrnland and Cross

3、(2023,REStat)*)see Hamilton(1983,JPE)for seminal paper and Bjrnland(2022,Sintra)for survey.Inflation absent oil in the Euro area Counterfactual for the Euro area,holding commodity prices constant from Q1 2021.Measure the indirect effect of inflation expectationsSource:Aastveit,Bjrnland,Cross(2023,RE

4、Stat)and Aastveit,Bjrnland,Cross,Kalstad (2023)(NB:Work in progress)Commodity exporters,boom or gloom?Theory of Dutch disease.Does it fit?Depend on democracy,institutions,spending rule and saving for rainy daysSome resource-rich economies have had higher growth rates than OECDRole for the oil relate

5、d industry as an engine for growth*Oil prices Spending effect(0/-)Oil activity Resource movement-Technology spillovers,Learning by doing(+)*)Bjrnland and Thorsrud(2016,EJ),Arezki,Ramey,and Sheng(2017,QJE),Alcott and Keniston(2018)and Bjrnland,Thorsrud and Torvik(2019,EER).Fragmentation and long run

6、challenges for commodity producers Climate change-reaching net zero by 2050 will require an 80 percent reduction in global fuel extraction IEA(2022)Shift in energy consumption patterns.Renewable and sustainable sources Fragmentation:diversification of energy sources and decentralization of productio