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1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 14.Analyst Certification on page 10.Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 5.12871935 US Semiconductors State of the union:Resilient AI,Lukewarm Analog,Tricky Semicap,Tough consumer Industry Overview SOX roadmap:weak September,followed

3、by strong Q4/Q1 We remain selectively positive on chip stocks entering what has historically been their weakest month(Sep:SOX down-5%/-2%on avg past 5/10 yrs.),as its usually followed by the strongest 2 quarters(Q4 up+15%/+10%,Q1 up+5%/+7%,on avg last 5/10 years).While YTD the SOX has outperformed t

4、he broader SPX,+14%vs.+10%,semis have lagged thus far in Q3 following muted outlook and/or post-print reactions by notable companies(MRVL,AMAT,TXN,ASML,NVDA,AMD).SOX is currently trading at a 23.5x forward PE,just about 1x turn above the SPX,lower than the 3x+PE turn historical premium since late CY

5、22 when the ChatGPT and AI capex cycle started.Maintain ratings on covered companies.Top debates/themes/picks ahead of Q4 seasonal recovery We are watchful during Sep headwinds but expect seasonal momentum to return in Q4.The cyclical framework still broadly favors semis on a combination of secular(

6、AI capex)and cyclical(industrial inventory replenishment,easier YoY compares in autos).But,market volatility could(re)energize investor debates.:1)CY26 AI capex growth;2)Impact of any new US semicap equipment restrictions on China,related the outlook for leading edge-fab equipment demand at TSMC and