结构性转变下的货币政策未来2.pdf

1、1PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALCharles L EvansFormer President,FRB ChicagoThe Future of Monetary PolicyUnder Structural Shifts2025 Bank of Korea International ConferenceStructural Shifts and Monetary PolicySeoul,Republic of KoreaJune 2-3,20252PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALPowell on Anchored Inflation Expectat

2、ions“While the framework must evolve,some elements of it are timeless.Policymakers emerged from the Great Inflation with a clear understanding that it was essential to anchor inflation expectations at an appropriately low level.”“During the Great Moderation,well-anchored inflation expectations allow

3、ed us to provide policy support to employment without risking destabilizing inflation.Bernanke 2004”“Since the Great Inflation,the U.S.economy has had three of its four longest expansions on record.Anchored expectations played a key role in facilitating these expansions.More recently,without that an

4、chor,it would not have been possible to achieve a roughly 5 percentage point disinflation without a spike in unemployment.”Jerome Powell,May 20253PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALWhat could go wrong?Structural ShiftsTwo-sided Inflation Risks Front-door risks:Demand-dominated inflation Back-door risks:Geopol

5、itical/supply-dominated inflation A short list of past risks:Global Financial Crisis and excessive financial risk-taking Responses to fiscal debt concerns,austerity programs Covid Pandemic,fiscal support and supply chain disruptions Geopolitical threats,terrorism and conflicts Unprecedented tariff e

6、scalations to change trade patterns Cyber risks,information-system disruptions,Y2K,AI and obsolesce Disinformation and the partisan divide4PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALGov Bernanke on Great Moderation and the Role of MP(2004)Was the Great Moderation in U.S.from early 1980s to 2007(GF