人工智能对产出和通胀的影响.pdf

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1、The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflationIaki Aldasoro,Sebastian Doerr,Leonardo Gambacorta*and Daniel Rees2025 Bank of Korea International Conference-Seoul,3 June 2025*Head of Emerging Markets,BIS.The view expressed here are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the

2、 Bank for International Settlements.2The rise of Artificial Intelligence(AI)AI has the potential to be“the most important general-purpose technology of our era”(Brynjolfsson et al,2023)Recent inroads of gen AI in everyday applications have triggered hopes of widespread efficiency gains Productivity

3、gains for workers(Brynjolfsson et al,2023;Noy and Zhang,2023;Peng et al,Gambacorta et al,2024)Improvements in sales&employment growth,productivity&innovation for firms(Yang,2022;Baily et al,2023;Czarnitzki et al,2023,Babina et al,2024,Acemoglu,2024;OECD,2024)By transforming occupational tasks,alteri

4、ng corporate strategies,and affecting production efficiency,AI may have significant consequences for labour markets,firms,and whole economy Broad agreement:positive impact of AI on productivity,GPT.Disagreement:on the magnitude,range is wide 0.07%-2.5%per year,over the next decade.3Research question

5、 and methodological approachWhat are the effects of AI on aggregate output and inflation,as well as on output in different sectors?OutlineConstruct industry-level measure of exposure to AI(AIIE)at the 2-digit NAICS level,building on Felten et al(2021)Calibrate multi-sector macroeconomic model in whi

6、ch AI is a positive productivity shock with a differential impact across sectors Allocate the shock across sectors using the AIIE measureInvestigate effects on macro-aggregates§ors;use model for counterfactual analyses Effects of AI could be“unanticipated“or“anticipated”by agents4Preview of find