小组讨论：结构性转变下的货币政策未来.pdf

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1、Panel Discussion:Future of Monetary Policy underStructural Shifts2025 Bank of Korea International ConferenceKi Young Park(Yonsei University)June 3,2025Structural shifts Central bankers are stargazers(Powell(2018),IMF(2018).We are interested in so many“stars”(r,u,Y,.)But these stars are unobservable.

2、They must be inferred from data via models.Structural shifts?(demographics,debt,climate change,digital innovation,etc.)Stars are moving to new steady states.New stars may be born.They will also affect the properties of data and call for new models(or modificationof existing models).1(My own)checklis

3、t Do structural shifts affect the mandate?Do central banks have a high level of understanding of the related transmissionmechanisms?Are central banks well-equipped to handle?Do we have for all three?2Difficulties These shifts are multi-dimensional and often involve opposing forces.They are slow-movi

4、ng(except digitalization?).Their shocks are uneven across sectors.3Climate change Biral and K anzig(2024):Global warming is highly correlated with extremeclimate events.In South Korea,the number of extremely hot days is increasing,while extremelycold days are declining impact on industrial productio

5、n and inflation?4AI and Digitalizaion It makes the financial sector more sensitive to monetary policy.Huang et al.(2023):BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainlythrough the extensive margin It makes the corporate sector less sensitive to monetary policy.Autor et al.(2020):technol

6、ogical change market power,labor share Adao and Silver(2022):monetary policy is more effective in countries with a higherlabor income share.Duval et al.(2021):market power dampens monetary policy shocks.5Demographic change Chen and Zhang(2025):Different implications of population