Leonardo Gambacorta 主讲的“人工智能对产出和通胀的影响”讨论.pdf

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1、Discussion for The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation presented by Leonardo GambacortaIchiro MutoBank of Japan2025 Bank of Korea International Conference on“Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy”Views expressed here are solely my own,not those of the Bank of Japan.Outline of t

2、his study Investigate the Impact of AI on aggregate and sectoral output and inflation in both the short and long run.Based on a multi-sector New Keynesian DSGE model with CES technologies and Calvo-style price&wage rigidities.Measure the occupational and industry exposures to AI and examine the impa

3、ct of AI across industries.Simulations are based on a scenario in which the annual impact of AI on TFP growth is 1.5%for a decade,which is close to the estimates by Goldman Sachs(2023).Emphasize the role of peoples expectations for the future productivity growth driven by AI.2Main Results1.Productiv

4、ity gains from AI will increases GDP,consumption,and investment by almost 30-40%over the next 10 years.2.The sectoral impact of AI is heterogeneous.The increase in value added is larger in capital-intensive sectors,since the productivity boom driven by AI accelerates the accumulation of capital stoc

5、k,which increases output more.3.The increase in GDP is larger when AI affects the production of consumption goods rather than investment goods,due to intersectoral linkages from downstream to upstream industries.4.Inflation dynamics are highly dependent on peoples expectations.If people anticipate h

6、igher future productivity driven by AI,inflation rises immediately due to increased consumption.Otherwise,the adoption of AI is initially disinflationary,and then moderately inflationary due to general equilibrium effects.3Comments41.Quantitative Impact of AI on Productivity Big debate on AIs impact