结构性转变下的货币政策未来.pdf

1、FUTURE OF MONETARY POLICY UNDER STRUCTURAL SHIFTSFatih Karahan,Ph.D.GovernorJUNE 2,2025SEOULImportant Structural Changes Impacting Monetary Policy2Demographics:Declining fertility and aging populationsFertility is collapsing but economic impact will be more relevant in next decades.Climate changeFre

2、quent agricultural frosts,extreme temperatures in Trkiye.Geopolitical fragmentation and trade tensionsHighly relevant for Trkiye.Changes in payments(fintech,digital currencies,etc.)Very dynamic payment industry in Trkiye(FAST payments,emoney,CBDC etc.)Public debt and monetary-fiscal interactionsDebt

3、-to-GDP ratio 25%Supply Shocks0100200300400500Mar 90Mar 95Mar 00Mar 05Mar 10Mar 15Mar 20Mar 25Gulf War IUS Recession and 9/11Iraq War and Outbreak of SARSGlobal Financial CrisisSovereign Debt Crisis in EuropeUS Fiscal Cliff and Sovereign Debt Crisis in EuropeBrexitUS ElectionsUS-China Trade Tensions

4、,and BrexitCovid-19 PandemicRussia-Ukraine WarCollapse of Credit Suisse and Some of theBanks in the USUS Election and Geopolitical RisksAge of volatilitySource:The World Uncertainty Index,Ahir et al.(2022).Last Observation:First quarter of 2025.*The first quarter of 1990 has been indexed to 100.3Wor

5、ld Uncertainty Index*(Quarterly)Number of loss events*(1980-2019)Extreme events are more frequent,affecting food and energy prices.Source:Munich RE.*Graph shows number of events that causes material damage.4 More frequent extreme weather events Volatile food and energy prices Not under the control o

6、f CBs Yet affects public perception Challenges the framework and communicationPorts Global Supply Chain Stress Index*Geopolitical fragmentation and trade tensionsSource:The World Bank.*The size of bubbles corresponds to cumulative global supply chain stress index at the destiantion port for the sele