重点任务和货币政策.pdf

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1、1PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALCharles L EvansFormer President,FRB ChicagoFocused Mandates and Monetary Policy2025 Bank of Korea International ConferenceStructural Shifts and Monetary PolicySeoul,KoreaJune 2-3,20252PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALKey Messages:Mandates and RisksThe Less Is More approach to monet

2、ary policy Dual Mandate with 2 percent inflation Fed Leadership from Volcker to PowellDo Central Banks have too many mandates?Are they creating more?Federal Reserve Dual Mandate:Is this enough?Financial Stability:BIS-G30-Rajan,Humbly Do Less(ELB,Balance Sheet Policies?)Should inflation-targeting Cen

3、tral Banks manage price-level risks?Should Central Banks manage relative price risks,like Energy,Used Car and Egg Prices?Risk 1:Money and Relative Price illusions can create another CB MandateRisk 2:Can the best economic thinking be explained to the public who ends up on the short-side of public pol

4、icies?“Everything we do is in service to the public.”(Im a big fan)3PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALFed policy regimes over 50 yearsStrong leadership with Fed Independence Volcker-Greenspan:dual mandate only Bernanke-Yellen 2012:lean framework with 2 percent inflation objective Powell-Clarida 2020:more exp

5、ansive framework Upcoming 2025 framework:Less is more?4PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALA reminder:Money and InflationWas it easier in the past?McCallum:(a)People do well for themselves;(b)No such thing as Money Illusion.Classical view:M/P=L(Y,r+)Y,r are fixed =steady money growth Raise money growth?Higher

6、induces temporary higher inflation overshoot owing to lower steady-state money demand Higher M and P,lower M/P With no money illusion,inflation targeting works.Source:McCallum,Monetary Economics,19895PERSONAL/NONWORK/EXTERNALUncertainty is back near Pandemic HighsCan Less handle More?Trump TariffsCo