Gen-AI：人工智能和工作的未来.pdf

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1、IMF|Research1GEN-AI:ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE FUTURE OF WORKMauro Cazzaniga,Florence Jaumotte,Longji Li,GiovanniMelina,AugustusJ.Panton,CarloPizzinelli,EmmaRockall,and Marina M.TavaresInternational Monetary Fund Research DepartmentThe views expressed in this presentation are those of the autho

2、rs and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.IMF|Research2Focus Artificial Intelligence(AI)is set to profoundly change the global economy What are the implications for the future of work,macroeconomy and income distribution?Focus:oimplications of AI

3、adoption on jobs across AEs and EMDEsoits potential to displace and complement human laboropotential effects of AI on inequality and productivityocountries preparedness to adopt AIIMF|Research3Measuring exposure to and complementarity with AI Exposure to AI:Degree of overlap between AI applications

4、and human abilities in occupations(Felten et al.,2021;2023).Complementarity(or Shielding)Index:Leverage two parts of the O*NET capturing“work context”and“skills.”Group into 6 categories:a.Communication:Face-to-Face,and public speakingb.Responsibility:Responsibility for outcomes and others healthc.Ph

5、ysical Conditions:Outdoors exposed,and physical proximityd.Criticality:Consequence of error,freedom and frequency of decisionse.Routine:Degree of automation,and unstructured vs structured Workf.Skills:Job zone(level of education,training and skills needed)Examples:Judges:High AI exposure yet shielde

6、d by societal norms and lawsAI may complement their work,enhancing productivity.Clerical Workers:High AI exposure with low shieldinghigher displacement risk.Conceptual Diagram of AI Exposure(AIOE)and Complementarity()Sources:Felten,Raj,and Seamans(2021);Pizzinelli and others(2023);and IMF staff calc