AI创新的宏观经济影响.pdf

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1、The macroeconomic effects of AI innovationAndrea Gazzani*Filippo Natoli*Bank of Italy12thIMF Statistical Forum Measuring the Implications of AI on the EconomyNovember 20-21,2024|Washington,DCDisclaimer:The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent those of the Bank

2、of Italy or the European System of Central Banks.12IntroductionRelease of AI chatbots like ChatGPT spurred debate on the economic effects of AIEmpirical analyses focus on sectoral/labor market implicationsResearch QuestionWhat are the macroeconomic effects of AI adoption?Views are polarized:AI as ga

3、me changer(Bresnahan&Trajtenberg 1995,Brynjolfsson et al.2023,etc).or low return-high risk tech(Acemoglu,2024,etc)?Literature review3This paperStudies empirically the effects of AI innovation in historical perspectiveConstructs an index of AI intensity in US innovation from 1980 to 2019 using patent

4、 dataEstimates its impacts on industrial production,consumer prices,labor markets,inequalityPreview of the resultsAn increase in the intensity of AI in tech is expansionary as positive technology shocksThe downside is an increase in inequality4Data and methodsArtificial Intelligence Patent Dataset b

5、y Gizcy et al 2022all filed patents at the United States Patent and Trademark Office in 1980-2020Score of the AI content of the patented tech(from 0=no AI involved to 1=fully AI-based)Based on separate scores on 8 AI domains(detected through ML and manual validation)AI intensity in US innovation=sim

6、ple score average in the month patents are filedEconomics:filing date is when the news of the future tech is first disclosed(news shock)Impacts of shifts of US innovation towards AI up to 5y ahead using local projectionsPre-estimation analysis5AI domains and examples198019851990199520002005201020150