AI和服务领导的增长：印度职位广告的证据.pdf

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1、AI and Services-Led Growth:Evidence from Indian Job AdvertsAlexander Copestake,1Max Marczinek,2Ashley Pople,3Katherine Stapleton3October 17,20241International Monetary Fund2University of Oxford3World BankThe views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the F

2、CDO or any ofthe institutions with which the authors are affiliated.1IntroDataDescriptivesMethodologyResultsMechanismsRobustnessConclusionMotivation Rapid growth in demand for AI skills across countries since 2015Online job posts listing AI skills(%)2IntroDataDescriptivesMethodologyResultsMechanisms

3、RobustnessConclusionMotivation Rapid growth in demand for AI skills across countries since 2015 Impact on jobs ambiguous(displacement vs.productivity/new tasks)(Brynjolfsson et al.2017,Acemoglu&Restrepo 2018,Agrawal et al.2018,Cockburn et al.2018,Klinger et al.2018,Goldfarb et al.2020,Agrawal et al.

4、2021)Limited empirical evidence,focused on high-income countries(adoption)(E.g.Acemoglu et al.2021 in USA,Albanesi et al.2023 in Europe,Stapleton 2021 in UK)Important potential consequences for development(call center vs.chatbot)(Susskind&Susskind 2015,Baldwin 2019,Baldwin&Forslid 2020,Korinek&Stigl

5、itz 2021)India a key case:archetype of services-led growth;large+young population E.g.IT/Business Process Outsourcing employs 4M,8%of GDP(SESEI 2019)200M ageing into labor market by 2030(UN 2019)3IntroDataDescriptivesMethodologyResultsMechanismsRobustnessConclusionMotivation Rapid growth in demand f

6、or AI skills across countries since 2015 Impact on jobs ambiguous(displacement vs.productivity/new tasks)(Brynjolfsson et al.2017,Acemoglu&Restrepo 2018,Agrawal et al.2018,Cockburn et al.2018,Klinger et al.2018,Goldfarb et al.2020,Agrawal et al.2021)Limited empirical evidence,focused on high-income