conor-osullivan---bord-bia---china-prospects-2025.pdf

1、Irish Meat in China:New Opportunities and Challenges in 2025Conor OSullivan,China ManagerDeclan Saruwatari,China Market SpecialistBord Bia Meat Marketing Seminar,17thJanuary 2025Agenda1.Geopolitics and policy2.Meat consumption trends in China3.The future for Irish meat in ChinaSection 1:Policy and M

2、acro Environment4Irish Meat in China:New Opportunities&Challenges in 2025Food security is more important than everASF,Covid-19,and geopolitical tensionsWe have the confidence and the vigour to ensure Chinese rice bowls are firmly held in our own hands.“”Xi Jinping,2022Top priorities are basics:rice,

3、wheat,soy,maize,oilAnimal products also important:pork,poultry,and dairy Rapid transition to large intensive farmsHuge(over)investment in production,cold chain,and storage.22 FTAs with 29 countries.24 countries with active beef access.18 active countries supplying pork.Over 1000 facilities for each.

4、Accelerated market access to diversify supply base5Irish Meat in China:New Opportunities&Challenges in 2025Oversupply and weak demand crashed pricesCompanies are pulling back on new projects and focusing on minimising losses.But even with smaller herds,efficiency gains will keep production relativel

5、y steady.Volatility will remain,but prices expected to rise in 2025.Pig PricesSource:MARA,All prices in CNY/kg,from Oct 2022 to Dec 2024 1015202530BeefLamb6Irish Meat in China:New Opportunities&Challenges in 2025China imported less meat from the world last yearSource:S&P ConnectUSD,Jan-Nov 2024 vs J

6、an-Nov 2023-5.1%volumevalue+4.2%-42.3%volumevalue-33.7%USD,Jan-Nov 2024 vs Jan-Nov 20237Irish Meat in China:New Opportunities&Challenges in 2025EU-China trade tensionsAug 21st:Chinese investigation into EU creamcream and cheesecheese announcedAug 20th:EU publishes tariff plan for Chinese EVsOct 4th: