rupert-claxton---gira---global-meat-outlook.pdf

1、Tel:+(33)4 50 40 24 00Global Meat Outlook 17thJanuary 2024Rupert Claxton GiraMajor Topics Covered in a selective global update1)Global Meat Market Overview2)Beef3)Pork4)Sheepmeat5)Final Thoughts GiraGlobal Meat Market Overview GiraCosts soften from 2022 highs,but remain above long term averageKey of

2、 issues challenging the meat industryHPAITRADEFMDSafeguarding GiraChickens relatively low cost and flexibility drive global market growth World meat consumption,2012-24f&29fGlobal Meat Consumption Volumes:main species,mio t cwe GiraBeef GiraStability:Liquidation in BR&drought in N.Am;Cattle herd cha

3、nges,2024e-25f(excl.SSA)Drought still impacts US/CA herds means no production recovery in 2025-26AU cattle cycle turned:herd declines in both 2024 and 2025 boosting current productionStrong BR liquidation underway now as 2024 drought exacerbates the cattle cycleEU/GB contracts despite milk prices as

4、 productivity gains continue Gira2024 surge to US+MENA sustained,mitigating Asias import dominanceWorld beef&veal importers,2022-25fBeef&Veal importers:.their suppliers 000t cwe GiraStrong exports,focussed away form EuropeAustralian BeefProducer Prices,Australia 2013-24(monthly)Australian Beef Expor

5、ts,2013-25f Gira+13.7%+10.9%+25.5%-8.8%Focus on China,which limits Mercosur impact for now!Brazilian beef Exports:reaching record-high levels!Total Monthly Beef Exports by Destination,2019-Oct 2449%to China2024 export price:-5%+28%GiraPork GiraEU challenge persists as cost of compliance deters reinv

6、estmentPork net production changes,2024e-25fCN find profitability.And back to growth phase some imports remain!Oversupply a real risk in some regions as overall demand remains weak.EU back in slow retreat after period of rapid decline Net Pork Production Change 2024e-2025f GiraFu