john-clarke---eu-commission---eu-trade-relationships-and-outlook.pdf

1、Agricultural Trade to 2030:Open Agricultural Trade to 2030:Open Trade or Trade or ProtectionismProtectionism?Presentation to BordBia,Naas,Ireland 17 January 2025John Alistair ClarkeFormer EU Commission Director for International Relations&Head of the EU Delegation to WTO and UN.Fellow,Maastricht Uni

2、versity&Fellow of the Royal Asiatic SocietyAgrifoodAgrifoodTrade Performance In the last Trade Performance In the last decadedecade EU worlds 1stexporter for 10 yrs Trade surplus of EUR 70 bn in 2023 Diversification of markets,sources of supply,product rangeFactorsFactors BehindBehind SuccessfulSucc

3、essful Export PerformanceExport Performance Common Agricultural Policy(CAP)market orientation CAP payments to farmers Demographics global population growth and dietary changes Europes reputation for quality and safety Trade policy keeping markets open,reducing trade barriers,creating new markets esp

4、ecially through FTAsWill Will TheseThese SameSame 5 5 factorsfactors prevailprevail in future?in future?Demographics Quality and safety CAP market orientation&CAP payments Trade policy RepurposingRepurposing of EU Trade Policy of EU Trade Policy SustainabilitySustainability&Strategic Autonomy&Strate

5、gic AutonomySustainability Sustainable development chaptersin FTAs Green Deal regulations affectingtrade/imports:Renewable Energy Directive,CBAM,DeforestationRegulation,Forced Labour,CS3D etc Growing resistance from 3rd countries&risk of disputesStrategic Autonomy Economic Security vs open trade(cfM

6、acron,Draghi report)Need to de-risk or de-couple esp from China in critical technologies Investment Screening,International ProcurementInstrument,Foreign Subsidies Regulation,AntiCoercionInstrument,AntiDumping&Safeguard measuresFuture Trends and Expectations for EU Future Trends