美国农业部（USDA）：2025中国乳制品市场年度报告（中译版）（23页）.pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:November 21,2025 Report Number:CH2025-0218 Report Name:Dairy and Products Annual Country:China-Peoples

2、 Republic of Post:Beijing Report Category:Dairy and Products Prepared By:FAS China Staff and Jadon Marianetti Approved By:Eric Mullis Report Highlights:Chinas dairy market is currently saturated with excess fluid milk,driving farmgate prices down since mid-2022.While overall milk output is forecast

3、to slightly decline in 2025 as smaller farms exit the market,large processors are investing in cheese,butter,and functional powders to capture higher-value segments.Post expects demand from the feed and infant-formula sectors will keep whey imports firm in 2026,while broader adoption of cheese and b

4、utter in restaurants,bakeries,and tea/coffee chains in lower-tier cities will sustain modest import growth.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The forecasts and revised estimates provided in this report are issued by FAS China and are not official USDA data.FAS China provides this reporting and analysis as a servic

5、e to U.S.farmers,ranchers,rural communities,and agribusinesses in support of a worldwide agricultural information system and a level playing field for U.S.agriculture.Fluid Milk:Post forecasts production to remain broadly stable in 2026 with imports declining slightly.Domestic production is sufficie

6、nt for UHT demand,and pasteurized milk remains locally sourced.Whole Milk Powder(WMP):Post forecasts WMP production to decline slightly in 2026 as manufacturers shift to higher-margin products.Reduced use in UHT-reconstitution due to the amended sterilized-milk standard will drive consumption modest