Teneo：2024年下半年航空业展望报告 - 2024-2026年航空客运量预测与趋势分析（中译版）（33页）.pdf

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1、Strictly private and confidentialTeneo Aviation Outlook H2 2024Passenger Traffic Forecast and Thematic Analysis Covering 2024 2026June 20242Contents and Authors2Teneo Aviation Outlook H2 202401Foreword and Executive Summary302Key Themes Impacting Aviation Volume to 2026603Regional Outlooks1804Previo

2、us Forecast Accuracy Review2405Data Tables26Gee LefevreSenior Managing DirectorTravel,Leisure,and Hospitality Practice LeadGee.L+44 20 3206 8860Matthew SeetSenior ConsultantMatthew.S+44 7557 315544Jesse MathewsConsultantJesse.M+44 7912 783513Cyrus TehranchianAssociate ConsultantCyrus.T+44 7385 00593

3、1Marcella ReisAssociate ConsultantMarcella.R+44 20 7076 5485Foreword and Executive Summary4The outlook for aviation is complex and varies significantly around the world.Macroeconomic factors continue to affect disposable income,placing greater strain on consumer choice and spending prioritisation.Me

4、anwhile,geopolitical developments and environmental regulations indirectly affect demand through increased fare prices.On the supply side,aircraft production constraints and industry-wide labour shortages continue to pressure the industry.This report combines Teneos extensive experience in the globa

5、l transportation industry with its proprietary aviation passenger forecasting model.The model can produce detailed forecasts for every major country and airline,taking into account a range of drivers and inhibitors.This paper presents Teneos aviation volume forecast up to the end of 2026 on a region

6、al level.The forecast considers consumer spending and ticket prices,macroeconomic conditions and business confidence,and longer-term trends around sustainability and regulation.ForewordTeneo Aviation Outlook H2 2024Executive SummaryGlobal aviation volume has largely recovered to its 2019 levels;howe