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识别和定义火灾发生的景观干燥阈值.pdf

上传人: 表表 编号:1152811 2026-02-14 17页 2.45MB

1、Identifying&defining landscape dryness thresholds for firesWe acknowledge the Traditional Owners of the lands on which we work,the Dja Dja Wurrung and Wurundjeri peoples.Dr Jane Cawson and Dr Jamie BurtonDr Jane Cawson and Dr Jamie BurtonThe University of MelbourneNatural Hazards Research AustraliaL

2、andscape moisture is the water in the air,soil and vegetationInfluences probability of ignition,fire spread,intensity and size across different spatial and temporal scalesFire managers need landscape moisture information to make informed decisions at various levelsNot just a matter of having access

3、to moisture datasets,but understanding which metrics are most informative,and defining thresholds for levels of fire activityLandscape moisture(or dryness)Many moisture metrics4To determine which moisture metrics are most informative for fire agency decision makingResearch Aim1.Workshop with fire de

4、cision makers 2.Review of existing moisture metrics3.Quantitative evaluation of moisture metrics to inform decision making Project stagesWorkshopACTNSWQLDSATASVICWAOnline,October 202426 participantsAll States and Territories represented,except NTAims:Document key fire management decisions that depen

5、d on moisture informationIdentify what attributes make a moisture metric useful for different types of decisionsFire management decisionsDesirable AttributesSeasonal planningWildfire preparednessWildfire responsePrescribed burningIndicator of hourly fluctuations in fuel availabilityIndicator of dail

6、y fluctuations in fuel availabilityLeading indicator of fuel availability over longer timeframes(months)Applicable across many climatic zones/vegetation types Readily available for use,not reliant on intensive computations or field calibration Provides up-to-date informationPredicts at a moderate to

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1. 研究目的:确定景观干旱阈值,为消防决策提供最有效的湿度指标。 2. 关键方法:通过研讨会(26名参与者,覆盖澳大利亚各州)、现有指标回顾及定量评估,筛选湿度指标。 3. 核心指标:包括死燃料湿度、活燃料湿度、大气湿度、土壤湿度和干旱指数(如SPEI)。 4. 决策关联:不同指标适用于不同决策尺度(如季节性规划需长期预测,火灾响应需实时数据)。 5. 应用场景:指导季节性规划(如过火面积预测)、火灾准备(如每日火灾发生监测)及 prescribed burning(计划燃烧)。
**干旱如何助燃?** **湿度指标如何选?** **火险如何预测?**
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