战略防范的长期洪水展望.pdf

1、OFFICIALOFFICIALLong-Range Flood Outlook for Strategic Preparedness Natural Hazards Research Australia 2025Dr.Navid GhajarniaResearch Scientist Bureau of MeteorologyNHRA Project T4 A3Team:Dr.Wendy Sharples,Dr.Christopher Pickett-Heaps,Dr.Jiawei Hou,Dr.Foad Brakhasi,Dr.David WilkeThis research projec

2、t is funded and supported by Natural Hazards Research Australia.OFFICIALOFFICIALService Gap/Similar International ProductsService Gap/Similar International Products Short-term Flood Forecast Products(7 days)Long-term Water Forecast Products Examples from overseasNOAAs Long-Range Flood OutlookECMWF-E

3、arly Warning SystemUK Met-Office Flood OutlookA need for a multi-week to seasonal flood risk outlook to improve flood preparedness Gap in Forecasting CapabilityNo multi-week forecast Not all forecasting services are truly seamlessOFFICIALOFFICIALLongLong-Range Flood Risk OutlookRange Flood Risk Outl

4、ookKey hydrological variablesRunoffRoot-zone soil-moistureActual evapotranspirationNo Flood Risk(52%)Minor Flood Risk(32%)Moderate Flood Risk(12%)Major Flood Risk(4%)Flood or AEP ThresholdFrom point-based flood risk results to flood risk inundation mapsMonthly RunoffMaximum daily dischargeBuilding o

5、n Bureaus modeling capacityHydrological forecastsMonthly to 3 monthsWeekly/fortnightly to 6 weeksDeveloping a Statistical modelRelationship between:hydrological conditions(e.g.monthly)Maximum daily dischargeIdentifying the likelihood of exceeding flood thresholdFlood thresholds from flood forecastin

6、g operationsAEP thresholds from FFAOFFICIALOFFICIALBJP model fit BJP model fit South Esk River at Perth,Tas.South Esk River at Perth,Tas.Runoff(qtot)Soil-moistureOFFICIALOFFICIALFlood Inundation and MappingFlood Inundation and MappingSentinel-2OFFICIALOFFICIALFlood Inundation and MappingFlood Inunda