T2-A2 突发性洪水案例研究.pdf

1、OFFICIALOFFICIALT2-A2 Flash flooding case studiesTo improve predictions and the communication of uncertaintyProject wrap-up NHRA Forum June 2025 Natural Hazards Research Australia 2023Carla Mooney,David Wilke,Vicki Heinrich,Karen Hudson(Bureau of Meteorology)OFFICIALOFFICIALWhat we didWhat we foundW

2、hat we learnedOutlineOFFICIALOFFICIALWhat we did:project overviewFlash flood events are complexThey occur quicklyquickly,can be highhigh-impactimpact and often have high uncertaintyhigh uncertaintyTo improve services,it is important to understand the current statecurrent stateTwo approaches used:Cas

3、e study analysis Case study analysis examining the full warning value chain for three eventsA public survey public survey examining understanding of flash flooding and certainty around its occurrenceCIs flash flooding well understood by the community and emergency services?Is the uncertainty around

4、the forecast communicated effectively?Is the fidelity of information changed as it passes between agencies and to the public?Is the balance between lead time and uncertainty right?Study questionsOFFICIALOFFICIALWhat we did:project componentsCase studiesThree case studies of recent flash flood events

5、Tested the value chain approach and tools developed by the WMO HiWeather projectSurveyBaseline assessmentN=123531%EM sector 69%general public55%flood experience45%no flood experienceCollaboration and engagementEM sector stakeholdersCase study workshops1:1 interviewsAFAC FSWISTG9 presentations includ

6、ing end of project webinarOFFICIALOFFICIALWhat we found:the flash flood warning value chain is complexGaps in the observation network(rain/river gauges)AverageModels did not pick up location and intensity of heaviest rainfallLimited flash flood forecasting in Australia;rainfall forecasts and warning