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Saudi ArabiaEconomic Outlook 2024STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|CONTENTSKey Takeaways 3Summary 4 The Global Outlook 6 MENA Regional Outlook 8 Oil Outlook 9 Saudi Arabia Growth Outlook 10 Saudi Arabia Monetary Policy Outlook 14 Saudi Arabia Fiscal&Public Debt Outlook 16Saudi Arabia External Sector Outlook 18 Saudi Arabia Labour Market Outlook 21 Things to Watch in 2024 26 Macroeconomic Dashboard 28STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|3Key TakeawaysThis report provides an analysis of Saudis macroeconomic performance in the first five months of 2024 and growth prospects for the remainder of the year.It assesses the countrys fiscal policy,external sector,labor market,and business environment based on projections made by the Ministry of Finance ahead of the fiscal year and the International Monetary Fund(IMF)in April 2024.The report concludes with highlights of challenges and sectors to watch in the coming year.Below are our key takeaways.Saudi Arabia is actively diversifying its economy by reducing its reliance on oil and expanding its non-oil sector.After being stagnant in 2023(growth rate of 0.03%),the economy is expected to grow by 2.6%this year according to the IMF,moderately below Saudis 4.4%projection in the 2024 budget.The growth trend of non-oil economic activity reflects a persistent expansion,with ongoing investments in the private sector and non-oil industries.Despite the expected fiscal deficit in 2024 to finance non-oil developmental projects,public debt in Saudi Arabia remains sustainable.With the fiscal balance expected to be in deficit over the medium term until 2026,the Kingdoms public financial management system is healthy,having a strong a credit rating profile,low debt-to-GDP ratio,significant foreign reserves,and momentum to diversify sources of income.Inflation in Saudi Arabia is expected to remain low and be among the lowest globally in 2024,positioning the country favorably for private consumption in the travel,tourism,and hospitality sectors.Private consumption in 2023 reached an all-time high over the past two decades and e-commerce transactions for 2024 are on pace to also register a record-high,as the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority remains steadfast in maintaining the peg of the Saudi riyal to the US dollar.Saudi Arabia aims to attract and retain foreign direct investment(FDI)amid concerns over a sluggish growth among its key trade and FDI partners.The Public Investment Fund(PIF)and the National Development Fund(NDF)will continue to provide stimulus to the economy to sustain trust and appetite among global investors.The Kingdom is also prioritizing measures that strengthen its position as a global trading hub and mitigate trade disruptions from recent geopolitical tensions.The unemployment rate across genders and nationalities in Saudi Arabia is decreasing and the labor force participation rate for women is on an upward trend,indicating a strong momentum of employment in the country.According to the most recent employment statistics,Saudi is meeting its Vision 2030 targets of cutting the unemployment rate below 7%,reaching 4.4%in Q4 of 2023.New challenges loom for Saudis labor market as it is short on local specialized talent,relies on foreign labor,and faces growing competition between the public and private sectors.Foreign employees constitute most of the workforce,translating to a sizable remittance outflow,and almost two-thirds of Saudi university graduates specialize outside technological fields like engineering and medicine that govern Saudis disruptive sectors.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|4SUMMARYIn the face of a challenging global economic environment,Saudi Arabia is diversifying its economy,reducing its reliance on oil,and focusing on expanding the non-oil sector.Despite experiencing stagnation in 2023,the country looked to scale up investments in the private sector to grow the economy by 4.4%this year compared to 0.03%the year prior.As it stands however,the growth rate for 2024 is projected at a modest 2.6cording to the IMF.The Kingdoms public finances are reassuring.A strong credit rating profile,sustainable public debt,and significant foreign reserves indicate stability and offer a buffer against potential shocks.The government intends to streamline operating expenses and diversify sources of income while running a deficit until 2026 to increase financing of non-oil sector development projects.Despite the deficits,forecasts indicate that public debt will remain below Saudis debt ceiling of 50%.Saudi ArabiaEconomic Outlook 2024STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|5The Public Investment Fund(PIF)and the National Development Fund(NDF)will continue to provide stimulus to the Saudi economy,playing a crucial role in building trust among global investors and attracting foreign direct investment(FDI).However,the recent geopolitical tensions are triggering trade disruptions,like rising shipping costs,which threaten the flow of trade and investment.Despite this,Saudi Arabia remains committed to its economic diversification efforts and continues to strengthen its position as a global trading hub.Inflation in the country is expected to remain low in 2024,hovering 2.2%,positioning the country well for private consumption and tourism.E-commerce transactions are on pace to register a record-high,with the volume in Q1 of 2024 threefold that in 2021,and private consumption in 2023 recorded its highest value over the past two decades.In parallel,unemployment continues to decline,and female labor force participation is increasing,surpassing the 2030 target ahead of schedule.However,meeting the growing demand for specialized talent and managing competition between the private and public sectors remains a perennial challenge,carrying long-term implications such as increasing labor costs and hindered talent retention.The business environment in the Kingdom is developing fast.Saudi is investing in economic cities,like NEOM and Qiddiya,that incentivize investors through lax tax regulations and business processes.More so,the Social Development Bank has increased its financing target for 2024 to support startups in the country.Regulatory reforms to facilitate the ease of doing business and public service delivery,like the digitization of government services,are improving the countrys rankings in global e-government and AI readiness indices,signaling a commitment to technological advancement and public sector excellence.Reaching midway through the decade,Saudi Arabia remains committed to Vision 2030 and carries a strong momentum to drive reforms forward.This year shows promise in the travel,tourism,and hospitality sectors,as well as progress in green initiatives and healthcare.Balancing these priorities with labor market trends will prove pivotal in successfully navigating the next half of this transformative decade.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|6The Global OutlookGlobal Economy is decelerating in 2024,with uneven growth across the regionThe outlook for the global economy in 2024 remains subdued.According to the IMFs World Economic Outlook Update issued in April 2024,global economic growth is projected at 3.2%,maintaining its pace in 2022 and 2023(Figure 1).Emerging&DevelopingAsiaSub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North AfricaLATINAmerica UnitedStatesEuroArea%5.2%3.8%2.5%2%2.7%0.8Figure 1:Global growth in 2024 slightly declines,GDP Growth Rates(Annual%Change)1Real GDP Growth(%)2024f1.IMF World Economic Outlook April 2024Reeling from a series of shocks,namely the Covid-19 pandemic,geopolitical tensions and conflicts,and inflationary pressures on commodities,the global economy showed resilience in staying afloat.However,the growth achieved during the 2020s is poised to be the weakest of any half-decade since the 1990s.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|7The Global OutlookEmerging markets are expected to outperform their developed peers in 2024,registering a growth rate of 4.2%compared to the sluggish 1.7%for advanced economies.Figure 2:Growth in emerging&developing economies is outperforming advanced economies in 2024.Real GDP Growth(%)22.IMF World Economic Outlook April 2024.*Saudi Arabia Ministry of Finance data.According to IMF predictions,the growth in emerging markets and developing economies is driven by large expansions in India followed by China(Figure 2).For advanced economies,growth is sluggish largely due to the faster-than-anticipated disinflation process.And despite the contractionary monetary policy,household consumption was strong and able to cope by drawing on income realized during periods of quantitative easing during the pandemic.The challenge ahead in 2024 and beyond for advanced economies is to navigate fiscal consolidation measures to restore sustainable public debt while maintaining economic growth.Advanced EconomiesEmerging Markets&Developing Economies1086420-2-4-6SpainNigeria202220232024STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|8Figure 3:MENA growth is growing in 2024 which is higher than global average Real GDP Growth(%)Real GDP Growth(%)3MENA Regional OutlookModest growth for the MENA region in 2024 at 2.7%,in line with GCC economies which are poised to rebound to 2.4%.According to the IMF,overall MENA regional growth is forecast at and still below the average of 4.2tween 2000-2019.20242.7 231.9%5.2 22fromaverage0.5 20-2021|In 2024,the growth rate in oil-exporting and importing MENA countries is behind 2022 levels.For oil exporters,growth is projected at 2.9%,up from 2%in 2023,yet almost half the growth achieved in 2022.For oil importers in the MENA region,countries are expected to register a moderate GDP growth of 2.4%in 2024,following a growth of 1.8%in 2023 and 4.5%in 2022.For the GCC,growth is projected at 2.4%in 2024,a significant improvement from the stagnant 0.4%in 2023,yet far behind the 7.0%registered in 2022.Moreover,the forecast for 2024 is still better than the 1.7%contraction between 2018 and 2019,but remains below the average of 4.2tween 2000 and 2019.According to IMF projections,the UAE,Oman,and Saudi Arabia are likely to dominate GCC growth in 2024.3.IMF Regional Economic Outlook April 2024;IMF World Economic Outlook April 2024.20226.54.52.11.82.92.420232024MENA OilExportersMENA OilImportersGlobal:3.5MENA Avg.:5.2GCC Avg.:7.0Global:3.2MENA Avg.:1.9GCC Avg.:0.4Global:3.2MENA Avg.:2.7GCC Avg.:2.4STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|9Figure 4:Still higher than breakeven oil prices provide buffer for GCC countries except for Bahrain,GCC Breakeven Oil Price(USD per Barrel)55.IMF Regional Economic Outlook April 2024.Oil OutlookDespite the decline in oil prices,projections for 2024 are above the breakeven point for most GCC economies.Crude oil prices have declined in 2023 from their nine-year peak in 2022,averaging$83 per barrel so far in 2024.On the supply side,OPEC announced production cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day(mb/d)in April 2023 and in the second quarter of 2024coupled with additional voluntary cuts of 1 mb/d and 0.471 mb/d from Saudi Arabia and Russia respectively.This was only partly offset by growth in oil output by non-OPEC countries,namely the United States,where production is expected to increase by 1.1 mb/d this year.On the demand side,OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 2.2%,or 2.25 mb/d in 2024,as the world will need 30.2 million bpd in 2024 from its members to balance the market,which is up 0.8 mb/d from 2023.4 Goldman Sachs have projected a bullish$100 per barrel projection for 2024;however,other organizations such as Fitch and the EIA have anticipated oil prices to fall within the range of$75 to$94.91 per barrel for 2024.The oil price ranges predicted by Goldman Sachs,Fitch,and the EIA are still expected to surpass the fiscal breakeven oil prices for most GCC oil exporters,except for Bahrain(with a breakeven oil price higher than$125).160140120100806040200Goldman Sachs,Fitch&EIA Forecast for 2024$75-$100 Range.20232024BahrainOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEKuwait4.OPEC Monthly Oil Report April 2024.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|10Saudi Arabia Growth OutlookEconomic growth in 2024 is making a big stride compared to 2023,driven by expansions in non-oil sectors.GDP GrowthAfter a stagnant 2023,the Saudi economy looks to muster a modest growth rate(2.6%)in 2024,albeit slower than its stellar performance(8.7%)in 2022 and behind its budget projections(4.4%)for the year.This can largely be attributed to the repercussions of geopolitical tensions and conflicts on economic activity,mainly in the trade sector following interruption of shipping routes along the Red Sea.Real GDP growth is estimated atlower thanand compared with growth of20230.03%8.7%3.1%Budget20232022The 2024 budget assumes real GDP growth of but over-optimistic relative to current growth prospects ofin line with estimates of October 2023estimates of April 20244.0%2.6%4.4 232024Oil GDP is forecast by the IMF at The contribution of the oil sector to Saudis economy is on a downward trend in 2023 and 2024,evidenced by a sharp and continued reduction in oil activities since 2022.Yet the decline in oil GDP in 2024 is expected to be less steep than in 2023,with the possibility of non-OPEC supply of oil falling short of expectations,triggering demand for Saudi output.On the other hand,the year-on-year growth of non-oil economic activity reflects a stable and persistent expansion.2024-2.4 23-9 22fromfrom1.2%5.6 20-20212020-2021Non-oil GDP is forecast by the IMF at 20243.9 233.8%5.3 22|STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|11Point-of-sale(POS)and e-commerce transactions,which serve as proxies for private consumption,show a continued appetite among consumers,with both indicators on an upward trend since 2017.This year has the potential of registering the largest e-commerce and POS transactions,with the value of sales in Q1 2024 dwarfing that recorded during the same period in 2021 by 200%.Given the contained inflation rates in 2023 and the projected slow inflation in 2024,it is likely that interest rates will not have a significant impact on credit-based consumer spending in 2024.The easing of inflation and the potential increase in public wages,as the government strives to maintain a high standard of living for Saudi residents,is expected to positively influence consumption patterns.Figure 6:POS transactions growth,Saudi Arabia Point of Sale Transactions Figure 7:E-commerce transactions growth,Saudi Arabia E-commerce Sales(Number of transactions)6(SAR,B)76.SAMA.Monthly statistical bulletin7.SAMA.Monthly statistical bulletin1.05.113.926.236.544.4Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2021Q1 2020Q1 2019Saudi Arabia Growth OutlookEconomic growth in 2024 is making a big stride compared to 2023,driven by expansions in non-oil sectors.TransportHealthRestaurants&CafesHotelsF&BClothing&FootwearRecreation&CultureMisc.Goods&ServicesElectronic&Related DevicesFurnitureConstruction&Building MaterialsJewelryTelecomEducationPublic UtilitiesOthers2,5002,0001,5001,0005000Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|12Figure 8:Non-oil private sector expansion continues MENA PMI Index Figure 9:Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Index(Points)8(Points)108.Markit Economics.A reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month,and below 50 an overall decrease.10.GASTAT.Data on Saudi Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)and Industrial Production Index(IPI),two private investment indicators,reflect an optimistic investor sentiment and a reduction in oil production.The Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)in Saudi Arabia continues to remain above the 50-threshold,indicating a positive outlook for the expansion of non-oil private sector activity.Moreover,the PMI in Saudi is significantly higher than in Egypt and slightly higher than in UAE,suggesting an ongoing growth anchored by business-friendly policies outlined in Vision 2030.In March 2024,Saudi Arabias Industrial Production Index(IPI)experienced a year-on-year decline of 8.7%,reaching 104.48 from 114.47 in March 2023,based on the 2021 base year.This decline is largely driven by a reduction in mining and quarrying activity,which represents 61.4%of the indexs weight,following Saudis decision to slow oil production.9 Saudi Arabia Growth OutlookEconomic growth in 2024 is making a big stride compared to 2023,driven by expansions in non-oil sectors.7060504030201009.Arab News.March 2024.“Saudi industrial production rises 0.3%in January driven by mining activity.”20242024JanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanMarMarMarMarMarMarMarMarMarMarMayMayMayMayMayMayMayMayJulJulJulJulJulJulJulJulSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepNovNovNovNovNovNovNovNov140120100806040200STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|13Figure 10:Private consumption&Exports of goods&services of GDP expanding,GDP by Expenditure at Constant Prices(SAR,M)1111.GASTAT.Consumption(Government&Private)As a testament to the growth of the private sector,private consumption registered a remarkable 46%year-on-year increase in 2023,reaching a record high over the past two decades.And due to the relatively low inflation level in 2024,private consumption is expected to remain on its upward trend.InvestmentThe PIF,NDF,and other government-led non-oil investments will continue to invest in fixed capital formation to create job opportunities.The launch of five new special economic zones with attractive regulations for investors has resulted in investments exceeding SAR 30 billion,while eight agreements have been signed with relevant government agencies to activate incentives.Moreover,a SAR 16.4 billion investment in the automotive industry system,the activation of the Investment Council,and the launch of the National Initiative for Global Supply Chains aim to strengthen the Kingdoms position as an investment hub and major center in supply chains.Exports&ImportsSaudi Arabia will experience continued export growth,driven by the steady increase in non-oil exports.Investments in infrastructure and diversification initiatives will translate to a demand for capital goods,raw resources,and machinery from other countries,maintaining the need for imports as a result.Saudi Arabia Growth OutlookGDP by Expenditure Component&Outlook86420200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Govt.Final Consumption ExpenditurePrivate Final Consumption ExpenditureGross Fixed Capital FormationExports of Goods&ServicesImports of Goods&ServicesSTRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|14Saudi Arabia Monetary Policy OutlookInflation contained in the Kingdom According to the 2024 budget statement,the MoF forecasts inflation at202420232.2%2.6%frominFigure 11:Saudi inflation contained by several factors Inflation Rate(YoY%Change)1212.GASTAT.The Consumer Price Index(CPI)in the Kingdom rose by 1.6tween March 2024 and 2023.Housing rents soared by 10.5%,driven by a 9.7%surge in villa rents,vegetable prices increased by almost 7%,and restaurant and hotel prices increased by 2.4%.Meanwhile,CPI for recreation and culture and education remained relatively stable(around 1%increase),while prices for home furnishing equipment and transportation decreased by 3.2%and 1.8%respectively. 24JanJanJanJanJanJanMarMarMarMarMarMarMayMayMayMayMayJulJulJulJulJulSepSepSepSepSepNovNovNovNovNovSTRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|15Saudi Arabia Monetary Policy OutlookSaudi Inflation among lowest globally The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority(SAMA),the central bank of Saudi Arabia,adjusts its policies in response to inflation fluctuations in coordination with the actions taken by the US Federal Reserve (Figure 12).This is because the Saudi riyal is pegged to the US dollar,and SAMA strives to maintain the exchange rate stability between the two currencies.Figure 12:SAMA still mirrors US Fed rate moves Figure 13:Saudi 2024 inflation among lowest globallySaudi Arabia Reverse Repo Rate&US Federal Funds Rate(%)13Global Inflation Rates,2024(%)1413.SAMA;US Federal Reserve.14.IMF World Economic Outlook April 2024The Kingdoms inflation rate in 2024 looks to remain the lowest among G20 members and among the lowest worldwide,enabling private consumption and tourism growth.JanJanJanJanJanJanMayMayMayMayMaySepSepSepSepSep2024USSaudi ArabiaSTRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|16Figure 14:The Kingdom faced a deficit:Surplus/Deficit Revenue&Expenditure (SAR,B)15 15.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia Fiscal&Public Debt OutlookDeficit in Saudi Arabias 2024 Budget not a concern as public debt remains sustainableThe fiscal deficit is projected at SAR 79 billion(almost 2%of GDP)in 2024,in line with that of 2023(SAR 82 billion;2%of GDP).During 2024 and the medium term,Saudi intends to run a deficit and direct spending to major development programs and non-oil projects that can drive sustainable economic growth.The priority is to improve the quality of public services and develop infrastructure across the Kingdom,as well as empower the private sector,stimulate the investment environment,and enhance social support,which will contribute towards improving the quality of life under Saudi Vision 2030.In 2024,projected public spending(SAR 1.25 trillion)is 25%higher than 2022 estimates and 12%higher than that of 2023.The wage bill makes up the largest expenditure line,in line with previous years,at SAR 544 billion(43%of total budget),followed by use of goods&services at SAR 277 billion(22%)and capital expenditures at SAR 189 billion(15%).A breakdown by sector also reveals an expenditure trend that is consistent with previous years.The military makes up the largest portion of expenditures at SAR 269 billion,followed by general items and health&social development at SAR 216 billion and SAR 214 billion respectively.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|17Saudi Arabia Fiscal&Public Debt OutlookDeficit in Saudi Arabias 2024 budget not a concern as public debt remains sustainableOn the revenue side,Saudi projects generating SAR 1.17 trillion in 2024,which is 4%larger than what it had estimated in the 2023 budget.Since the launch of Vision 2030,the annual contribution of non-oil income to total revenues has been on an upward trend,representing 37%in 2023(Figure 15).And during 2024,Saudi seeks to further accelerate the implementation of structural reforms that diversify income sources beyond oil to realize broader economic and social returns.For a closer budget analysis,Strategic Gears reviewed Saudi Arabias annual budget for 2024 here.Figure 15:Non-oil revenue is still growing in 2023;oil revenue decreasedSaudi Arabia Total Revenue Breakdown(%of Total)1616.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.Public debt at the end of 2023 stood at almost 25%of GDP and is forecasted at 26%of GDP for 2024,comfortably below the governments debt ceiling of 50%.According to the governments medium-term projections,public debt is also set to rise to 26.2%of GDP in 2025 and 26.9%of GDP in 2026.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|18The current account balance in Saudi Arabia is expected to continue its positive trend from 2023 into 2024,driven by a surplus in the balance of trade.Additionally,foreign direct investment(FDI)and tourism inflows are also expected to contribute to this trend,providing a cushion to the countrys economic stability.According to the IMF,the current account balance in Saudi Arabia rebounded from a deficit of 3.1%of GDP in 2020 to a surplus of 5.1%of GDP in 2021.This recovery followed the dual impact of COVID-19 and lower oil prices that year.The surplus has continued to increase,reaching an estimated 13.6%of GDP in 2022,driven by higher oil exports,and 6%in 2023.For 2024,the IMF forecasts it to reach 5.4%of GDP,a strong position yet lower than the average of 12%seen in the two decades leading up to 2020.Figure 16:Saudi current account balance remains positiveCurrent Account Balance(%of GDP)1717.SAMA;IMF.Saudi Arabia External Sector OutlookCurrent account balance is positive but below historical standards%STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|19Saudi Arabia External Sector OutlookCurrent account balance is positive but below historical standardsLooking at the composition of Saudi exports over the last decade,the countrys exports expanded beyond oil to include a diversified basket of non-oil commodities.The share of non-oil exports has been increasing considerably over the past decade,reflecting ongoing diversification efforts.Total non-oil exports in 2023 were valued at SAR 208 billion(17.4%of total exports)and SAR 266 billion(17.2%of total exports)in 2022,up from SAR 190 billion in 2012(13%of total exports).Figure 17:Saudi exports basket continues to diversifyOil&Non-Oil Share of Saudi Exports(%of Total)1818.GASTATSTRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|20Saudi Arabia External Sector OutlookFDI remains positive,hovering below its average of the past decade.Figure 18:FDI recovering,but still below peak levelsSaudi Arabia FDI Inflows(SAR,B)1919.Invest Saudi.Performance of Saudi Arabia in Key Economic and Investment IndicatorsFDI flows play a crucial role in supporting Saudi Arabias diversification goals and bolstering the countrys balance of payments.According to Invest Saudi,FDI inflows to Saudi Arabia saw a huge,yet short-lived,rebound in the year following the pandemic,reaching SAR 72.3 billion in 2021 from SAR 20.2 billion in 2020,only to decrease again to SAR 30 billion in 2022 and SAR 19 billion in 2023.FDI remains below its peak level of SAR 148.1 billion in 2008 and the average of SAR 43.5 billion over the previous 15 years.However,the number of investment licenses granted by the Ministry of Investment has increased by 96tween 2022 and 2023,reaching 8,540 licenses.The new National Investment Strategy aims to attract SAR 1.8 trillion in FDI inflows between 2021 and 2030,equivalent to SAR 200 billion a year,yet at the present rate this seems too ambitious.The position of Saudis foreign reserves looks reassuring for the dollar peg.The Saudi Central Bank(SAMA)reported that the peg is bolstered by substantial foreign exchange reserves,with the PIF managing assets worth SAR 3 trillion for sovereign wealth funds by the end of 2023.The exchange rate stability will continue to serve as a reliable pulse for prospective foreign investors,who have an important contribution to the Kingdoms financial account as the government attempts to liberalize the economy further.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|21Saudi Arabia Labour Market OutlookRecord low Saudi male&female unemployment Figure 19:Both Saudi male&female unemployment at a record low Unemployment Rate%(15 years old)2020.GASTATThe governments efforts to grow the non-oil sector and address labor market disparities are evident in the quarterly data,showing improvements in overall unemployment rates and participation of Saudi women in the workforce.Assuming that momentum from 2023 carries over,it is expected that employment growth will persist in 2024,with the private sector playing a significant role in generating job opportunities.Saudi Arabias Vision 2030 aims to cut unemployment from 11.6%in 2015 to 7%by 2030.According to the General Authority for Statistics(GASTAT)estimates,the overall unemployment rate(Saudis and non-Saudis)fell to 4.4%in Q4 2023 compared with 4.8%in the same period of the previous year,which indicates a great momentum of employment in the Kingdom.During this period,the unemployment rate for Saudi nationals fell to 7.7%in Q4 2023 compared with 8%in the same period in 2022,and the lowest rate since GASTAT began reporting quarterly statistics in Q2 2016.This was driven by a decline in both Saudi male and female unemployment rates to 4.6%and 13.7%respectively in Q4 2023 compared with 4.2%and 15.4%in the same period of 2022,and also represent the lowest rates since GASTAT began reporting quarterly statistics in Q2 2016(Figure 19).STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|22Saudi Arabia Labour Market OutlookFemale participation rate in labor market is still exceeding visions 2030 targets.Figure 20:Saudi female labor force participation doubles and exceeds Vision 2030s targetsSaudi Female Labour Market Statistics(%)2121.GASTAT.The implementation of women empowerment and inclusive workforce reforms in Saudi Arabia has had a positive impact on womens employment since 2020.These reforms,including protecting pregnant women from dismissal,combating harassment,and providing financial benefits,created a suitable workforce environment for women to enter.In the fourth quarter of 2022,the employment rate for women reached its highest point at 84.6%,with an average rate of 79.2%from 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2023(Figure 20).According to labor market data,as of Q4 2023,63.5%of employed Saudi women were working in the private sector.Of those,15.2%were employed in the wholesale and retail sector,while 9%were employed in the construction industry,and 10%were employed in the social work sector.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|23Saudi Arabia Labour Market OutlookEmerging labor market challengesThe labor market shows positive signs,and the government remains committed to addressing structural imbalances and emerging challenges.While the employment rates among eligible Saudi workers have increased,the number of foreign employees still exceeds them by approximately 203%in the third quarter of 2023,with non-Saudi employees constituting 75%of the total workforce.The heavy reliance on foreign labor,particularly in the private sector,poses economic threats to the Saudi economy,in terms of skewing demographics and increasing remittance outflow.Foreign workers outnumber Saudi nationals in the workforce22The rise in competition between the private and public sectors presents both opportunities and challenges.On the positive side,this competition can contribute to reducing unemployment rates by broadening the workforce and result in competitive salaries for employees.However,this intensified competition for talent has broader implications in the long run,such as labor costs that the private sector could find difficult to sustain,high turnover rates and challenging ability to retain talent,which can hinder continuity for public administrations.The shortage of specialized talent in Saudi Arabia,particularly in technological sectors,is evident.The distribution of graduates from Saudi universities indicates that 65%of graduates specialize in humanitarian studies,while only 17%pursue degrees in engineering and medical areas.This imbalance contributes to the scarcity of skilled professionals in crucial sectors,threatening development,service delivery,and dependency on foreign labor.25Competition between the Private&Public Sector23Gap in local specialized talent2422.Gastat.23.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.24.Localized.March 2024.“Retaining Young Saudi Talent in the Private Sector”25.Gastat.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|24Saudi Arabia is developing specialized economic cities,such as NEOM,Qiddiya,and the Red Sea Project,to create thriving business hubs and drive economic growth.These cities offer a range of incentives,including tax exemptions,streamlined regulations,and world-class infrastructure,to attract both local and international businesses.In addition,the recent launch of five new special economic zones with investor-friendly regulations has already resulted in SAR 30 billion worth of investments according to the 2024 budget report.Saudi Arabia has launched initiatives to support startups and foster innovation.The Social Development Banks(SDB),which provides financing for freelancers and family businesses,has reached its financing of SAR 3.7 billion for the financial year 2023.In 2024 and the medium term,the SDB has increased its financing target to SAR 4.4 billion to further facilitate business practices by supporting the culture of entrepreneurship.Development of Economic Cities26Entrepreneurship and Innovation27Saudi Arabia Business Environment The reform momentum is accelerating developmentSaudi Arabia is making big strides in diversifying its economy and fostering a more conducive business climate.Through a series of strategic investments and reforms,the Kingdom is attracting foreign investment,empowering local businesses,and creating a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem.These initiatives aim to boost economic growth,reduce dependence on oil,and create new opportunities for investors.26.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.27.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.The Kingdom has improved regulations to ease the process of doing business.Achievements like the establishment of commercial courts,digitization of government services,and implementation of bankruptcy law have created a more transparent and conducive business environment.These reforms have not only simplified procedures for local businesses but also instilled confidence in international investors,also with the launch of the visiting investor business visa.Regulatory ReformsSTRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|25Saudi Arabia aims to improve its ranking in the United Nations E-Government Development Index to 26 from its current position of 31st by the end of 2024.28 In parallel,Saudi improved its ranking in the Government AI Readiness scoreboard for 2023,placing it second behind UAE for the most prepared governments in the MENA and 29th worldwide.29On December 5,2023,Saudi Arabias Ministry of Investment,along with the Ministry of Finance and the Zakat,Tax,and Customs Authority,made a significant update to the RHQ Program.The announcement included the introduction of a 30-year tax incentive package for multinational companies engaged in RHQ activities in Saudi Arabia.Better E-Government and AI Readiness RankingSaudi Arabias Regional Headquarters(RHQ)Program30Saudi Arabia Business Environment The reform momentum is accelerating development28.The index measures the state of e-government of UN member states relative to each other across online service delivery,telecommunication connectivity,and human capacity.29.Government AI Readiness Index 2023.30.SPA.”30-Year Tax Relief Added to Incentives for the Saudi Program for Attracting Regional Headquarters of Multinational Companies”STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|26Within the framework of the Saudi Green Initiative,NEOM presents an attractive prospect for companies specializing in solar and wind technology.The city is striving for 100%renewable energy with the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project boasting an impressive total investment value of$8.4 billion.This project aims to lead and expedite the adoption of green hydrogen,aiming to produce 600 tons per day of carbon-free hydrogen by its completion at the end of 2026.31Moreover,the Kingdom has announced ambitious plans to launch renewable energy projects totaling 20 gigawatts by end of 2024,a substantial increase from the production of 2.8 gigawatts in December 2023.This commitment to renewable energy underscores Saudi Arabias dedication to sustainable development,offering opportunities for companies in the renewable energy sector.32Saudi Arabia has set its sights on developing national competencies in the data and Artificial Intelligence field.The expansion in the Communications and Information Technology Market by 6%in 2023 is set to create 25,000 jobs in the digital economy.Moreover,the Saudi Authority for Data and Artificial Intelligence Academy has been established to qualify 10,000 specialists and experts in data science and artificial intelligence by 2025.The hospitality sector in Saudi Arabia presents a promising investment opportunity with the anticipation of hosting Expo 2030 and the FIFA World Cup 2034.As part of Vision 2030,the kingdom has set a SAR 289 billion target for total tourism spending by the end of this decade.Saudi also aims to improve in airport capacity,road infrastructure,and public services to accommodate a growing number of visitors by 2030,which is currently forecasted at 150 million.33Green Economy and renewable energy Information Technology,Data,and Artificial Intelligence34 Tourism&Hospitality Services Things to Watch in 2024In 2024,Saudi Arabia has set a goal to activate 23 logistics centers out of the total 59 logistics centers targeted to be operational by 2030.This initiative aims to facilitate trade and transportation operations,improve logistics infrastructure,and consolidate the countrys position as a trading hub.Transportation and Logistics Services3531.NEOM.May 2023.“NEOM green hydrogen investment”32.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.33.Arabian Gulf Business Insight.February 2024.“Saudi Arabia hits tourism target seven years early.”34.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.35.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|27Saudi Arabia is investing in its education sector by integrating digital transformation,with a focus on developing a digital strategy to provide electronic services to students among others.This may involve introducing electronic equivalency of certificates for students studying abroad,making the process more efficient.Saudi also aims to increase the employment rate of technical and vocational education Saudi graduates to 41%in 2024 by aligning the skill gap between the workforce and employers with education outcomes.Saudi Arabia is focusing on enhancing the quality of healthcare coverage.The country is investing in telemedicine and specialized clinics to provide advanced medical care to the population.As a step towards improving accessibility to healthcare services for individuals living in remote or underserved areas,additional hospitals with a total capacity of 1,100 beds will be built by the end of 2024.Education36Healthcare Services37Things to Watch in 202436.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.37.Ministry of Finance,Saudi Arabia.STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|28Macroeconomic Dashboard 20202021202220232024f(MoF)2024f(IMF)Real GDP Growth(%)-4.1 3.2 8.7 0.034.42.6Oil GDP(%)-6.6 0.2 13.1-5.4-2.4Non-Oil GDP(%)-2.5 4.9 4.2 4.9 3.9 CPI Inflation(%)*3.4 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.22.3 Fiscal Balance(%of GDP)*-11.2-2.3 2.5-2.0-1.9 Current Acc.Balance(%of GDP)-3.2 5.3 13.6 5.9 5.40.5 Total Government Gross Debt(%of GDP)*32.5 30.0 23.8 24.825.927.5 External Debt (%of GDP)32.431.723.924.825.5 Reserves(Months of Next Years Imports)25.621.120.017.816.2 Exchange Rate(SAR/USD)3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75STRATEGIC GEARS|Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook 2024|

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