美国农业部食品价格展望.pdf

1、USDA Food Price OutlookMegan SweitzerAgricultural EconomistUSDA Economic Research Service2025 USDA Agricultural Outlook ForumFebruary 27,20252Food price changes have impacts across the economy Price changes affect producers,retailers,and consumerso Agriculture and related industries contributed 5.6

2、percent of U.S.GDP in 2023 Spending on food accounted for12.9 percent of total householdexpenditures in 2023o Food was the third highest household spending category after housing and transportation3Food price changes have impacts across the economy Households share of spending on food varies by inco

3、meo Lowest income quintilespent$5,300 in 2023(32.6 percent of income)o Highest income quintile spent$17,000 in 2023(8.1 percent of income)05101520253035404550Percent Percent of after-tax income spent on food by income quintile,1990-2023RecessionLowestSecondMiddleFourthHighestSource:USDA ERS using BL

4、S Consumer Expenditure Survey data4The USDA Economic Research Service(ERS)Food Price Outlook(FPO)forecasts food CPIs and PPIs FPO provides monthly forecasts of price changes up to 18 months in the future Forecasts are based on Consumer Price Index(CPI)and Producer Price Index(PPI)data from the U.S.B

5、ureau of Labor Statistics Annual food price changes for:o 22 CPI retail food categories o 13 PPI farm and wholesale categories Includes data files and Summary Findings reportFood Price Outlook Summary Findings Report5In 2024,food prices grew 2.3 percent,slower than the all-items CPISource:USDA ERS u

6、sing BLS Consumer Price Index data0123456All itemsHousingMedicalcareFoodRecreationTransportationApparelEducation/communicationPercent changePrice change for major Consumer Price Index(CPI)categories,20246Food prices grew slower than their 20-year average of 2.9 percentSource:USDA ERS using BLS Consu