2025年美国乳业展望.pdf

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1、Office of the Chief EconomistOutlook for the U.S.Dairy SectorPresented ByPeyton FerrierWorld Agricultural Outlook Board,USDAOffice of the Chief EconomistMarket Conditions Facing U.S.Dairy Market in 2025 Milk production is projected to grow modestly by 0.4%based primarily on 0.4%herd growth and sligh

2、t growth in milk per cow Milk components(fats and skim solids percentages)are expected to grow.The all milk price is projected to be nearly unchanged at$22.60 per cwt Feed costs(NASS ration)are expected to fall.2Office of the Chief EconomistAssumptions of the WASDE and acknowledgements Policies in P

3、lace Current to February 2025 Normal Weather Conditions No new animal disease outbreaks Steadying Macroeconomic Conditions Relative to 2021-2024 WASDE forecasts are produced by an interagency committee representing several USDA agencies including:ERS,FAS,AMS,FPAC,and NASS,along with the World Board.

4、3Office of the Chief EconomistDrought Conditions have worsened from early last year,but December hay stocks were up 6%4February 2024February 2025Office of the Chief EconomistFeed Prices are Forecast Lower on a Market Year Basis5Market YearShare of NASS Ration2024/25 Forecast2023/242022/23$4.35$4.55$

5、6.5451%Corn(Bushel)$310$384.11$451.918%Soymeal(short ton)$178.63*(May-Dec)$225$27341%Alfalfa(short ton)*Price reflected average of actual prices reported by NASS.Alfalfa prices are not forecast in the WASDE.Source:USDA NASS,USDA WASDE01002003004005006000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.0020192020202

6、12022202320242025Corn and Soymeal Prices,Quarterly,2019 to 2025 forecastCorn($/bu)Corn($/bu)-ForecastSoymeal($/ton)Soymeal($/ton)-ForecastOffice of the Chief EconomistMilk to Feed Costs Expected to Ease and Support Growth600.511.522.533.512345 6789 10 11 12 12345 6789 10 11 12 12345 6789 10 11 12202