当前红肉贸易形势.pdf

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1、The Current Trade Landscape for Red MeatsFebruary 28,2025 Erin BorrorUSMEF Vice President,Economic AnalysisUSDA Ag Outlook Forum,Washington DCUSMEF MissionVisionIncrease the value and profit opportunities for the U.S.beef,pork,and lamb industries by enhancing demand in export markets through a coord

2、inated and collaborative partnership of all stakeholders.The recognized global leader in analyzing,cultivating and penetrating international red meat markets.Its going to be exciting and were not going to talk about eggs!We are in a Fourth Turning Aging and shrinking populations Competition in these

3、 markets will get more intense Heavily indebted governments Social safety net questions;consumer confidence Refinancing this year of government debt around the world=reduced liquidity ahead Mara Lago Accord Inflation creeping higher again Inflation exceeding GDP/income growth in many countries,press

4、uring consumers Volatility Here to stay The Fourth Turning Strong U.S.dollar Tariffs could push the dollar higher will something break?AI Super Cycle U.S.stock market accounting for majority of global market cap,over 60%when just a fifth of GDP Americans(and others)are more invested in the U.S.stock

5、 market-when it turns,big risk to confidence and spending Crypto currencies&gold A sign of the times with financial market uncertainty,sanctions,government debt,inflation concerns War Political change The Fundamentals Are Bullish Further growth ahead for U.S.pork exports,relatively steady for beef a

6、lthough with tariff uncertainty The global pork market has been massively impacted by ASF;now FMD in Germany Top exporter,EU,is in decline;Canadian production steady Brazil is the rising competitor Everyone looking to offset the continued slowdown in China+thankful for continued China demand for var