景顺投资（Invesco）：2025年第三季度全球资产配置全景展望报告（英文版）（29页）.pdf

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1、June 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only 1 Global Asset Allocation 2025 Q3 Quarterly update from Invescos Global Market Strategy Office 10 June 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only.June 2025 For professional/institutional/qualifi

2、ed/accredited investors only 2 The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2025 Q3 We think the global economy will accelerate over the next 12 months as central banks ease and real wages grow.However,we think some market valuations understate the risks to the US economy.We continue to embrace risk with

3、 caution and emphasise non-US assets within our Model Asset Allocation.We reduce equities(to Underweight)and REITS(but remain Overweight),while adding to government bonds and high yield credit(taking both to Neutral).Seeking balance,we maintain maximum exposures to both bank loans and commodities.Mo

4、del asset allocation In our view:Commodities should benefit as the global economy improves.We stay at the Maximum.Bank loans offer an attractive risk-reward trade-off.We stay at the Maximum.Real estate(REITS)have rebounded but may benefit as rates fall.We reduce but stay Overweight.Government bond y

5、ields have risen.We increase to Neutral(and lengthen duration beyond Neutral).Corporate investment grade(IG)has a similar profile to government bonds.We remain at Neutral.Corporate high yield(HY)spreads are tight but the improved growth outlook helps.We boost to Neutral.Equities have rebounded and w

6、e reduce to slightly Underweight(and remain Underweight the US).Cash will be disadvantaged as the global economy accelerates.We remain at Zero.Gold may be helped by a weakening dollar and geopolitics,but is expensive.We remain at Zero.Regionally,we favour Europe and EM and seek JPY exposure.US dolla