不完美的系统信息导致数字孪生的不确定性.pdf

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1、Uncertainty in digital twins from imperfect system informationNathan Urban nurbanbnl.govApplied Mathematics,Computing&Data SciencesBrookhaven National LaboratorySeptember 17,2024BNLWhat is a digital twin?For the purposes of this talk:A predictive computational model of a specific,real-world systemCa

2、n be physical simulation,AI,anything elseIncorporates decision making(control,planning,design optimization,)Automatically“ingests data about the system and updates its representation of reality,following these decisionsLearn Predict Act Learn Beyond this,I am not going to open the terminology can of

3、 worms!What is a predictive digital twin,computationally?A mechanistic(“physical”)simulationConstructed to emulate a specific systemInitialized with data(state estimation),or“tuned”to data(parameter estimation)A data-driven model(usually statistical/machine learning)Data as inputs to a prediction(“s

4、tate estimation”),or trained to data(“parameter estimation”)Both of these A ML model that uses both simulated and real-world dataA ML model of data from a simulation that has been tuned to the real worldA mechanistic simulation that contains AI components or submodelsA mechanistic(“physical”)simulat

5、ionConstructed to emulate a specific systemInitialized with data(state estimation),or“tuned”to data(parameter estimation)A data-driven model(usually statistical/machine learning)Data as inputs to a prediction(“state estimation”),or trained to data(“parameter estimation”)Both of these A ML model that

6、 uses both simulated and real-world dataA ML model of data from a simulation that has been tuned to the real world A mechanistic simulation that contains AI components or submodelsWhat is a predictive digital twin,computationally?Uncertainty in digital twinsMuch uncertainty quantification(UQ)for DTs