全球饮料罐市场的未来趋势和驱动因素.pdf

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1、Unique Data.Expert Analysis.Innovative Solutions.One Platform.A review of key recent trends and drivers in the global beverage can market and the future outlookNovember 2024Trends&Future Opportunities in the Global Beverage Can Market21.Market Overview 2.Recent Market Trends&Developments3.Demand&Sup

2、ply Chain Drivers4.Regulations&the Environment5.Innovation&New Product Development6.Conclusions&OutlookAgenda31.Market Overview4Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Global Beverage Market Overview -Consumption by Region Global beverage consumption reached

3、 1221 billion litres in 2023,dominated in size and growth by the Asian&LatAm regionsBillion Litres2020202320242028CAGR 2020-23CAGR 2024-28Asia388.3465.9493.1579.46.3%4.1%Latin America171.7198.0205.1222.84.9%2.1%North America175.1182.1184.0192.71.3%1.2%West Europe143.4152.1153.9160.32.0%1.0%East Euro

4、pe90.694.696.9106.31.5%2.4%Middle East,North Africa53.961.463.471.44.4%3.0%Africa49.056.959.566.75.1%2.9%Australasia9.49.79.810.21.3%1.1%Grand Total1081.31220.81265.71409.84.1%2.7%Global Beverage Market by Region,2020-28(B Litres)Asia38%Latin America16%North America15%West Europe12%East Europe8%Midd

5、le East,North Africa5%Africa5%Australasia1%Global Beverage Market by Region 2023(B Litres)0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%AsiaNorth AmericaEast EuropeAfricaGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Market,Growth Rates(B Litres)CAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-235Global Beverage Market Overview Consumption by Sector Soft Drin

6、ks account for nearly two thirds of total global consumption with positive volume growth in all sectors except winesGlobal Beverage Market by Sector,2020-28(B Litres)Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Billion Litres2020202320242028CAGR 2020-23CAGR 2024-

7、28Soft Drinks687.1794.0827.6937.84.9%3.2%Beer&Cider184.2196.0199.6209.92.1%1.3%Bulk/HOD water153.7168.9174.7191.13.2%2.3%Spirits31.837.539.244.85.6%3.4%Wines24.524.424.626.3-0.1%1.6%Grand Total1081.31220.81265.71409.84.1%2.7%Soft Drinks65%Beer&Cider16%Bulk/HOD water14%Spirits3%Wines2%Global Beverage

8、 Market by Sector,2023(B Litres)-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%Soft DrinksBeer&CiderBulk/HOD waterSpiritsWinesGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Market,Growth Rates by SectorCAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-236Global Beverage Market Overview-Consumption by Channel Off-trade sales account for 76%of total consumption,

9、but stronger growth is taking place in On-trade consumptionGlobal Beverage Market by Channel,2020-28(B Litres)Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 202478%76%75%74%22%24%25%26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2020202320242028Global Beverage Consumption by Channel,

10、2020-2028(B Litres)Off-tradeOn-trade78%67%74%72%80%71%76%22%33%26%28%20%29%24%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Soft DrinksBeer&CiderBulk/HOD waterSpiritsWineFlavoured Alcoholic BeveragesGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Market by Sector&Channel,2023Off-TradeOn-Trade7Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Bev

11、erage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Global Beverage Packaging Market-Consumption by Region In packaging terms,the global market reached 1812 million units in 2023 with both size and growth led by AsiaGlobal Beverage Packaging Market by Region,2020-28(B Units)Billion Units2020202320242028CAGR 2020-23CAGR

12、2024-28Asia608.9754.5807.5989.97.4%5.2%North America294.2300.8303.6317.00.7%1.1%Latin America194.1230.7240.5263.35.9%2.3%West Europe198.1213.7216.9227.22.5%1.2%East Europe101.4108.7111.6123.32.4%2.5%Africa85.099.0103.2115.75.2%2.9%Middle East,North Africa76.788.892.1103.95.0%3.0%Australasia15.215.71

13、5.816.41.2%0.9%Grand Total1573.61812.01891.32156.74.8%3.3%Asia42%North America16%Latin America13%West Europe12%East Europe6%Africa5%Middle East,North Africa5%Australasia1%Global Beverage Packaging Market by Continent,2023(B Units)0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%AsiaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaWest

14、 EuropeEast EuropeAfricaMiddle East,North AfricaAustralasiaGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Packaging Market,Growth Rates(B Units)CAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-238Global Beverage Packaging Overview Consumption by Sector Soft Drinks,Beer and Cider are even more dominant measured in units,accounting for 93%of total

15、 in 2023Global Beverage Packaging Market by Sector,2020-28(B Units)Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Billion Units2020202320242028CAGR 2020-23CAGR 2024-28Soft Drinks1084.41285.31352.01579.65.8%4.0%Beer&Cider380.7406.0414.4435.72.2%1.3%Spirits67.179.383

16、.096.65.7%3.9%Wines33.132.232.434.4-0.9%1.5%Bulk/HOD water8.49.29.510.43.2%2.2%Grand Total1573.61812.01891.32156.74.8%3.3%Soft Drinks71%Beer&Cider22%Spirits4%Wines2%Bulk/HOD water1%Global Beverage Market by Sector,2023(B Units)-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%Soft DrinksBeer&CiderBulk/HOD w

17、aterSpiritsWinesGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Market,Growth Rates by SectorCAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-239Global Beverage Packaging Market Consumption by MaterialPET still accounts for the largest part of the global beverage packaging market overall(41%),with glass and metal taking a further 23%and 24%respec

18、tivelyGlobal Beverage Packaging Market by Materials,2023(B Units)Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024PET41%Glass24%Metal23%Board5%Polypropylene2%Foil2%HDPE1%LDPE1%Paper1%Polycarbonate0%Polystyrene0%PVC0%Global Beverage Packaging Market by Material,2023(B

19、 Units)8.0%2.6%3.8%4.7%1.9%2.3%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%PETGlassMetalGlobal Beverage Packaging Market by Material,Growth Rates(B Units)CAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-2310Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Global Beverage Can Market-Consumption by

20、Region Global beverage can consumption amounted to 414 B Units in 2023.Asia accounts for a relatively smaller share compared to North America,but is growing stronger alongside Latin America and Africa/MEGlobal Metal Can Market by Region,2020-28(B Units)Billion Units2020202320242028CAGR 2020-23CAGR 2

21、024-28Asia110.2125.7129.9145.54.5%2.9%North America114.4114.7115.8122.00.1%1.3%Latin America47.758.761.567.97.2%2.5%West Europe45.753.054.358.65.0%1.9%East Europe20.023.424.427.75.5%3.2%Middle East,North Africa17.921.522.225.16.2%3.0%Africa10.212.713.415.57.6%3.7%Australasia4.54.84.95.22.1%1.7%Grand

22、 Total370.6414.5426.4467.53.8%2.3%Asia30%North America28%Latin America14%West Europe13%East Europe6%Middle East,North Africa5%Africa3%Australasia1%Global Beverage Can Market by Continent,2023(B Units)0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%AsiaLatin AmericaEast EuropeAfricaGrand TotalGlobal Beverage Can

23、 Market by Continent,Growth Rates(B Units)CAGR 2024-28CAGR 2020-23114.1%2.5%2.9%1.4%9.7%8.6%6.9%8.5%3.8%2.3%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%CAGR 2020-23CAGR 2024-28Global Beverage Can Market,Growth Rates by Sector(B Units)Grand TotalWinesSpiritsBeer&CiderSoft DrinksGlobal Beverage Can Market Consumpti

24、on by Sector Soft Drinks and Beer&Cider account for 53%and 42%of the beverage can market.Use for W&S is growing faster but remains small.Global Metal Can by Sector,2020-28(B Units)Source:GlobalData Packaging Intelligence Center,Beverage Market Analyzers,Oct 2024Billion Units2020202320242028CAGR 2020

25、-23CAGR 2024-28Soft Drinks195.8220.7226.5249.64.1%2.5%Beer&Cider160.9175.4180.0190.32.9%1.4%Spirits13.818.219.727.49.7%8.6%Wines0.20.20.20.36.9%8.5%Grand Total370.6414.5426.4467.53.8%2.3%195.8220.7226.5249.6160.9175.4180.0190.313.818.219.727.40.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.02020202320242028Global Be

26、verage Can Market by Sector,2020-28(B Units)Soft DrinksBeer&CiderSpiritsWines122.Recent Market Trends&Developments13The Perfect Storm 2022-24 plagued by droughts,war,COVID and political turmoilHeatwaveshave thrown China into an acute water scarcity crisis limiting agricultural productionFurther COVI

27、D outbreaks in China(e.g.Chengdus latest lockdown affecting 21 million-city lockdowns interrupts production,trade flows,and causes further logjams in portsHeatin Canada hits wheat,corn&soya harvests Sanctions&war stop supply of Russian grain,oilseed,fertilizer components(inc potash)and push up price

28、s of oil and gas.High export tax hits timber&pallet productionsUkrainesupply of oilseed&wheat hitBlack Sea freight suffering from warDroughtin South America hits wheat&soya bean harvestsExcessive rain in SE Asia hits grain and soya bean harvestsHigh price of oil Port disruption still playing out fro

29、m COVID impact on a global level Source:GlobalDataBrexit impact cross-border regulations and port worker strikes cause holdupCOVID-19WAR&GEOPOLITICAL BARRIERCLIMATE CHANGEBeijings,zero COVID policy The European Chamber claim Beijings,zero COVID policy has negatively affected 75%of its members busine

30、ss200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of rice has been lost to Pakistans floodsBrazil reports more amazon fires so far than all of last yearWildfires(Spain,Portugal,France,Romania)have scorched 700,000 hectares of land in EuropeHurricanes&Floods in Florida14Global Supply Chain Pressure Index(GSCPI)Although an

31、nualised inflation has dropped significantly in the last 9 months,pressure on consumer purse strings remains intenseSource:Federal Reserve Bank of New York,Global Supply Chain Pressure Index The GSCPI(Global Supply Chain Pressure Index)is an index generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to

32、 assess global supply chain disruptionThe index is normalized meaning 0 represents the averageMinus numbers mean low pressure Positive numbers mean high pressure2008 financial crashArab SpringBrexitUS-China Trade WarCovid 19Semi-conductor ShortageUkraine WarVolatile inflationMiddle East Conflict15Ma

33、cro-economic environmentWar&ConflictWar in Ukraine and the Middle East continues with no clear resolution in sight.In the Middle East,escalation of the conflict into Lebanon and the possibility of further direct confrontations between Iran and Israel has implications for oil price volatility.The pri

34、ce of Brent crude has been trending higher and reached$80 a barrel on 8thOct,underlining the potential for inflation spikes if the conflict is not contained.In Ukraine,the war is well into its third year with neither side seemingly able to win outright.The potential for a wider conflict is the main

35、concern of policymakers,which could trigger another round of supply and price shocks in energy,food and other commodities.Trump vs.HarrisThe US election remains on a knife edge with both Trump and Harris polling within the margin of error.Although some national opinion polls put Harris in the lead,t

36、he outcome in the all important swing states will likely determine the result.A Trump win would have implications for international trade as tariffs are imposed on many different countries,with a 10-20%baseline global tariff as well as 60%or higher tariffs on China.The net result would be inflationa

37、ry and could kick off a global trade war.A Harris win might see food and grocery firms banned from so-called price gouging,enabling the Federal Trade Commission(FTC)to prosecute firms which“excessively”increase prices.A general settling of inflation rates at close to target levels has helped to conv

38、ince central banks to gradually reduce interest rates.The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September to support economic growth and stabilize a slowing labor market.Further cuts to the Federal funds rate are expected in late 2024 and early 2025.The Bank of England and European Central Bank h

39、ad earlier reduced their rates to 5%and 3.5%,respectively,with analysts expecting the ECB to go further in October due to weak economic data,especially in Germany.The IMF anticipates real GDP growth of 3.2%in 2024 and 2025,with economic activity resilient during the 2022/23 rate hiking cycles.GDP,In

40、flation&Interest RatesUS consumer confidence,as measured by The Conference Board,fell to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August.Consumers expressed pessimism about current business conditions and the state of the labor market,with the steepest drop among those aged between 35-54.Consumer views about

41、 their familys financial situation also weakened in September,with purchase plans for goods and services over the next six months mixed.In Europe,there has been a gradually improving picture for consumer confidence with the EUs economic sentiment survey increasing by 0.5 points in September.Consumer

42、s were more optimistic about their households future financial situation,although expectations about the general financial situation remained unchanged.Consumer ConfidenceIn spite of falling inflation,the macroeconomic environment in 2024 remains uncertain with continuing geopolitical and economic t

43、ensions16Consumer ConcernsThough there are signs of improvement,consumer financial concerns remain elevated whilst sustainability concerns have moderatedSource:Global Datas global quarterly consumer surveys89.30%88.60%88.50%88.20%86.80%85.9%How concerned are you about these aspects of your personal

44、financial situation?(%of GLOBAL consumers saying Extremely Concerned/Quite Concerned)The impact of inflation on my household budget77.90%78.00%77.60%77.40%76.60%76.3%2023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42024 Q12024 Q2Maintaining my current lifestyle in the cost-of-living crisis75.30%75.30%74.10%74.60%73.80%7

45、3.0%How important are each of the following when deciding to make a purchase?(%of GLOBAL consumers saying Essential/Nice to Have)Recyclable Packaging75.70%75.10%74.50%75.20%74.10%73.4%2023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42024 Q12024 Q2Sustainable/Environmentally Friendly17Global Beverage Market TrendsKey Glo

46、bal Alcoholic&Non-Alcoholic Beverage Trends&DriversSectorTrendDetailsAlcoholic BeveragesSetting the Bar LowConsumers growing acceptance and demand for low/no-alcohol products drives innovation and salesNot Going OutSince the pandemic,not going out has led to a channel switch for many consumersA Glas

47、s for EveryoneIn the wake of high inflation,brands are focusing on engagement to avoid losses through consumer budget cutbacksPicking PremiumConsumers are increasingly driving the trend of premiumization by choosing quality over quantityToasting TransparencyProduct claims and additional information

48、resonate with global consumers who actively seek increased transparencyOnes to WatchChanging demographics&economics provide the key opportunities for brand growth;e.g IndiaDigital ConnoisseursOnline branding experiences to create engagement and loyalty,especially in younger generationsNon-alcoholic

49、BeveragesFunctional Focus Consumers actively seeking drinks with specific added functional ingredients&featuresSugar DemonsLow-calorie carbonates are showing stronger growth rate than regular calorie drinksPlant-based AlternativesYounger consumers are the major drivers for new plant-based soft drink

50、s product options Kitchen Cafe With Increased at home consumption RTD coffee and tea are well-placed to bring the caf experience to consumersSocial StatementsYounger consumer groups are particularly drawn to products endorsed by celebrities via social mediaHydration 2.0Consumers are swapping traditi

51、onal beverages for healthier alternatives with new ingredients and formulas to stay hydratedDigital EngagementCompanies are increasingly utilizing technological advancements such as AI and digital touchpoints in new product launches18Global Beverage Can Market -Key Regional Growth TrendsNorth Americ

52、aNorth America is the largest market for beverage cans,driven primarily by the United States.The rising popularity of hard seltzers,craft beer,and energy drinks,along with strong recycling infrastructures,has led to sustained demand in the region.Additionally,high consumer awareness of environmental

53、 issues and regulatory support for sustainable packaging are driving growth.EuropeEurope is another significant growth region,with countries like the United Kingdom,Germany,and Spain leading the way in beverage can consumption.The European Unions stringent environmental regulations on packaging wast

54、e have led to an increased preference for recyclable materials,including aluminum cans.Additionally,the rising demand for craft beverages,including beer and artisan soft drinks,continues to fuel market expansion.AsiaThe Asia region is experiencing the fastest growth in the global beverage can market

55、,with countries like China,India,Japan,and South Korea driving demand.The rapid urbanization,expanding middle class,and increasing consumption of on-the-go beverages have boosted the use of beverage cans.China,in particular,is a key growth market,driven by the rising consumption of energy drinks,spo

56、rts drinks,and alcoholic beverages.Latin AmericaLatin America is emerging as a growth region for beverage cans,with countries like Brazil and Mexico experiencing increased demand.A strong beer culture,coupled with rising consumption of soft drinks and energy drinks,has positioned this region for sus

57、tained growth in the coming years.Additionally,the regions growing awareness of sustainability is supporting the shift toward aluminum cans.Middle East&AfricaThe Middle East and Africa are poised for moderate growth in the beverage can market,driven by rising consumption of carbonated soft drinks an

58、d non-alcoholic beverages.While still developing,the regions potential lies in the gradual increase in disposable income and urbanization.However,environmental concerns and regulations related to sustainability are expected to propel demand for recyclable can packagingThere remains considerable vari

59、ation worldwide,but it is the emerging regions that show most growth potential19Global Beverage Can Market Key Category Growth TrendsFour key categories continue to dictate the overall trends in the global beverage can marketCarbonated Soft Drinks(CSDs)Despite a decline in the consumption of sugary

60、soft drinks in many developed markets,CSDs remain a major consumer of beverage cans globally,particularly in regions like Latin America,the Middle East,and parts of Asia.The introduction of sugar-free and low-calorie variants has helped maintain demand.Energy Drinks and Functional BeveragesEnergy dr

61、inks and functional beverages such as vitamin-infused water,sports drinks,and kombucha are seeing rapid growth,especially in North America,Europe,and Asia-Pacific.This category appeals to health-conscious consumers looking for alternatives to traditional sugary drinks,driving up the use of cans for

62、packaging.Alcoholic BeveragesThe demand for canned alcoholic beverages is expanding across categories like beer,cider,wine,ready-to-drink cocktails,and hard seltzers.In particular,hard seltzers have seen explosive growth in North America and are starting to gain traction in other regions.The conveni

63、ence and portability of canned alcoholic beverages are key factors behind their rising popularity.Bottled Water and Sparkling WaterThe shift toward health-conscious and calorie-free beverages has driven the popularity of sparkling water,with brands adopting cans as their primary packaging due to con

64、sumer preference for convenience and sustainability.Premium bottled water brands are also beginning to use aluminum cans in place of plastic bottles as part of their sustainability efforts.203.Demand&Supply Chain Drivers21Three core industry drivers are affecting trends in both the demand and supply

65、-side of the beverage packaging industry 3.DigitalizationCostsSustainabilityEfficiencyKey Industry Drivers Reduced spending power Increased environmental awareness consumers,customers Digital lifestyles Increased costs,competition and margin pressures Regulation and environmental targets Digital int

66、egration of supply chainsCONSUMER DEMAND INDUSTRY SUPPLYPackaging companies are being squeezed between downward pressures on consumption and volatile operational costsDemand&Supply Chain Drivers22Demand&Supply Chain Drivers-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19M

67、ar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22YoY Packaging Input Price Change by Month(%)Jan 2018-Jun 2022LLDPEHDPELDPEPPPET ResinBoxboardGlassAluNatural GasOilAll packaging input prices have been far more volatile in recent y

68、ears making planning more difficult and inventory more volatile23Demand&Supply Chain DriversBy-product of ammonia and fertiliser production,severely compromised in 2022Risk for carbonated beverages,refrigerant,packaging to extend shelf-lifeSignificant impact across Europe and AmericasCO2 ShortagesRe

69、sin ShortagesAluminium ShortagesBy-product of petroleum refining processSlowdown in Chinese production levelsImport duties being introduced(UK)or continued(US)Difficult for western countries to compete with AsiaSignificant dependence on ChinaRussia sanctions and high energy prices across other small

70、er producing nationsRisk for carbonates,energy drinks,still drinks,iced RTD tea and coffeeING Report Chinese production 1.2 million tonnes below 2021 expectationShortages of crucial supplies to the beverage industry have also been more frequent at times over the past few years24Sustainability nevert

71、heless remains a key priority for all participants in a self-perpetuating supply circle 2023|SEE|24WasteMedia/Lobbying GovernmentRegulationIndustryFoodserviceRetailConsumersStakeholder engagement cycleDemand&Supply Chain Drivers254.Regulations&the Environment26Regulations&the EnvironmentRecent regul

72、atory trends reflect a change toward greater consumer transparency,accountability,environmental responsibilityNutritional Content and MarketingThere is a global push to reduce high-calorie,sugary beverages through targeted regulations.In regions like Latin America and parts of Europe,front-of-pack(F

73、OP)labeling initiatives warn consumers about high sugar and calorie content,while some locations restrict advertising and sales of these products near schools or on daytime television.Such regulations are likely to influence beverage can designs and labeling to include clearer nutritional informatio

74、n and potentially discourage high-sugar contentHealth&Wellness-Focused LabellingAs health and wellness become more significant to consumers,regulations also focus on transparent health claims,especially for functional beverages that promote benefits like improved immunity or mental clarity.This tren

75、d is driven by both regulatory bodies and consumer advocacy,pushing companies to ensure that claims about health benefits are scientifically substantiated and clearly communicated.SustainabilityEnvironmental policies are intensifying as governments worldwide demand more sustainable packaging practic

76、es.In the EU,for example,new regulations mandate clearer and more truthful environmental claims on products,responding to concerns about greenwashing.Companies are now investing in eco-friendly packaging solutions and recyclable materials to comply with these stricter guidelines and appeal to eco-co

77、nscious consumersDeposit Return and Recycling SchemesDeposit return schemes(DRS)are increasingly adopted across Europe,North America,and parts of Asia.These programs require consumers to pay a small deposit when purchasing canned beverages,which is refunded upon returning the can for recycling.This

78、initiative aims to boost recycling rates and reduce waste,prompting beverage brands to adopt packaging compliant with these schemes and to invest in recycling logistics and infrastructure.27Source:GlobalData analysisEven before the Covid-19 regulatory change was expanding and changing with a renewed

79、 focus on single use plastics,recycling and better waste disposal.2010-20172018-2019Regulatory environment-is focused on volume of waste recovered;emphasis more on carbon footprint and pack weight reduction/convenience rather than ease of recyclingFlexible&lighter weight plastics packaging(e.g.,stan

80、d-up pouches,lightweight plastics bottles)gain share from traditional heavier rigid packs(glass,metals)January 2018:China refuses to take European and North America post-consumer plastics and paper wasteTV series Blue Planet II(Oct 2017)and other media initiatives raise public awareness of,and huge

81、concern over ocean waste -the single use plastic problem is further highlightedIncreasingly strong consumer and environmental lobbyist pressure on eradicating single use plastics packagingNew laws drafted on Single Use Plastics&Circular EconomyEasy targets such as carrier bags and plastic straws sho

82、w rapid changeNew regulatory focus primarily on RECYCLING and the greater use of recycled materialsThis favours rigid single material packaging that is highly recycled(glass,aluminium and steel cans and certain mainstream plastics(PET,PP and HDPE)that are widely used in monomer format and recycledCh

83、allenges persist by way of complex barrier materials such as coextruded plastics films and laminates,and lower quality polymers such as PS that are difficult to recycle economicallyTrend towards Paperization starts-the replacement of single use plastics with paper-based(renewable)paper alternativesD

84、emand for bio-derived polymers(grown from natural resources not fossil fuels)and recycled polymers(rPET,rPP,rHDPE)grows enormously.Polymer companies start to invest more in depolymerisation and pyrolysis technologiesInvestment in packaging recycling industry infrastructure in Europe and North Americ

85、a acceleratesRegulations&the Environment28Source:GlobalData analysisRegulations&the EnvironmentPackaging regulations continue to expand with more stringent targets and wider scope;the focus is now very much upon improving recycling and increasing reuse2020-2024Covid 19 closures have strong impact on

86、 channel demand-severe reduction in food service/on-premise,with some compensation in food retail and e-Commerce as home delivery boomsIn beverages,initially causes a drop in demand for glass(widely used in food service),beverage cans and glass gain as retail and e-tail demand growth replaces some o

87、n-premise demand.Smaller cans replacing larger kegs.Supply chain issues and shortages of materials which started during the pan-demic,start to accelerate as economies recover and oil and gas demand and prices accelerate;this impacts all packaging materials As vaccine roll-out spreads globally and tr

88、avel and on-premise demand returns,there is stronger demand for glass,especially as outlets restock,and initially businesses prefer to commit to smaller pack size purchases(risk and cash)Expansion of DRS and Closed Loop systems begin to become more widespread as means of improving recycling rates an

89、d the quality of the recycled materials for reuse in many countriesRenewed focus in packaging on costs and efficiency with high material prices and rising labour costs-driving trends toward further automationRussias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,accelerates pricing volatility and drives large

90、 rises in in inflation and declining disposable income in most western economiesPaperization spreads-food service packaging beginning to transform.Multi-material packaging moves more to board-only based pack to avoid use or single use plastics Refocus of the flexible packaging industry on barrier fi

91、lms that can be more easily recycled(e.g.monomers and aqueous based coatings/ink)Meanwhile,significant regulatory change continues to be enforced with stricter recycling targets and more emphasis on reusable and refillable packaging(PPWD)29The new EU Packaging&Packaging Waste Directive is a key piec

92、e of global regulatory change Regulations&the Environment 2023|SEE|29Aside from higher recovery targets,the PPWD puts more emphasis on recycling,DRS systems,refilling and overpackaging General MeasuresSets new targets for packaging waste reduction at Member State level and mandatory reuse targets fo

93、r economic operators in selected packaging groups.Restricts over-packaging and certain forms of unnecessary packaging and supporting reuse and refill systems.Establishes criteria for design for recycling to be applied to all packaging.Sets minimum inclusion rates for recycled content in plastic pack

94、aging.Sets mandatory DRS for plastic bottles and aluminium cans.Harmonises labelling of packaging and waste bins to facilitate correct consumer disposal of packaging waste”1Source:European Commission,https:/environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/waste-and-recycling/packaging-waste_enMeasures specific to Fo

95、odservice PackagingRefillable/reusable packaging-final distributors in the foodservice sector offering beverages or ready-prepared food in take-away packaging to provide the option of refill and re-use systems to consumers at no higher cost/less favourable conditions than goods in single-use packagi

96、ng.Packaging restrictions for condiments and sauces in foodservice:reductions in packaging for these products creates opportunities for dispensing technologies 30The global regulatory landscape is fragmented and complex;but the common themes are waste reduction,recycling,and accountabilityRegulation

97、s&the EnvironmentRegulatory Examples by CountryUS states like California,and cities such as Seattle and San Francisco,implement local laws to reduce packaging waste in the absence of federal law.UKs Extended Producer Responsibility(EPR)scheme and recycling programs hold producers and importers accou

98、ntable for packaging waste disposal.Brazils National Solid Waste Policy requires producers to be responsible for the disposal of their packaging waste,aiming to increase waste recycling.Indias Plastic Waste Management Rules and single-use plastic ban focus on reducing plastic packaging waste.Chinas

99、National Sword Policy and National Solid Waste Management Law regulate packaging waste disposal and encourage recycling programs.European Union Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive More stringent packaging regulation and legislation is spreading across the globe31Source:1 Reloop,November 2022 Pos

100、itives:Effective in achieving high recycling rates for different types of beverage containers,including glass bottles,PET bottles,and beverage cans.All packaging types have consistently high recovery rates where DRS has been implemented.DRS impact on consumer behavior,in combination with technologic

101、al/materials innovation,is aiding development of a more genuinely circular economy.Concerns:Running costs and risk of passing on to the consumer.Potential conflicts over funding and uptake between DRS systems and existing curb-side recycling schemes.DRS could benefit certain pack types,such as plast

102、ics,at the expense of other types already achieving higher recycling rates.Prepare;DRS systems need to be fully operational before the legislation in enactedRegulations&the Environment0102030405060708019601970198019902000201020202030Total countNumber of DRS projects:existing,upcoming,and proposed,19

103、702025Existing SystemUpcomingProposedDRS expansion has become increasingly influential globally as more countries and regions recognize the value of incentivizingconsumers to recycle beverage containers via this method32Regulations&the EnvironmentIn 2024 DRS continues to evolve across Europe with a

104、digital DRS scheme trialled in Wales and Hungary completing its scheme roll out.Wales DDRS Scheme The Welsh Government have recently published the results of their DDRS scheme in Brecon,the first full town digital deposit return scheme trial to be run in the world The trial included PET plastic bott

105、les,steel,aluminium and glass with sizes from 50ml to 3 litres and eligible products were printed with a reward label and QR code.(The trial did not include products purchased online)18,794 rewards were claimed(10p refunded to the customer per item)by the 4,200 households meaning each household clai

106、med 4+rewards indicating a high level of engagement Returns could be made via:Kerbside recycling Automated return points(ARP)which is essentially a cheaper simplified version of an RVM where the user scans the QR code and posts the item through a slot where they are shredded Community return bins Ov

107、er the counter(in-store returns)Hungary DRS Finished DRS Transition Hungary launched its DRS scheme in January 2024 with a 6-month transition period where marking DRS compatible products was optional As of July 1st,this is now mandatory and represents the second phase of their DRS rollout which is b

108、eing managed by Tomra and Mohuwho have partnered for this implementation Tomra has reported that in the first 6 months,8 million beverage containers have been collected indicating a positive start to the scheme.Now DRS labelling is mandatory it will be interesting to see how this impacts consumer pa

109、rticipationX335.Innovation&New Product Development34Innovation&New Product DevelopmentLighter and Stronger MaterialsAdvanced alloys and coatings are redefining the traditional beverage can,making it both lighter and more robust.This reduces shipping costs for manufacturers,contributing to more cost-

110、effective production processes and consumers benefit from cans that are easier to handle and transportImproved recycling&resource efficiency SolutionsManufacturers are embracing the use of recycled materials,contributing to the reduction of waste and the conservation of valuable resources.Smart Pack

111、aging and Digital IntegrationBy seamlessly incorporating technologies like QR codes,NFC tags,and AR features into can designs,manufacturers are creating an interactive consumer engagementTemperature-Sensitive Print,Beverage cans are no longer passive containers;Temperature-sensitive labels change co

112、lor or provide indicators when the beverage inside reaches the ideal temperature for consumption.Nanotechnology and Barrier CoatingsManufacturers are using nanomaterials and barrier coatings on can interiors to create improved barrier,preserving the taste and quality of the beverage and extending sh

113、elf life.Customization via DecorationManufacturers are using advanced printing techniques to create visually effectively and unique can designs and differentiate brands by decorationLight-weightingBeverage can lightweight continues its long-term trend allowing manufacturers to lower production costs

114、 and reduce their carbon footprint,without compromising the durability or recyclability of the product.Reducing Energy&Gas EmissionsMore energy-efficient manufacturing and production techniques are a strong focus of current attention,aimed at lowering the carbon footprint and emissions to meet everm

115、ore stringent climate goals Key Drivers of Technical Innovation&Development in Beverage cans35Innovation&New Product DevelopmentThermochromic InkGlow in the Dark and Neon cansHigh-Definition PrintingDraft Top Full Aperture OpeningTactile CoatingsSelf-foaming Beer CanEmbossed CansLaser CodingSome exa

116、mples of recent technical innovation in beverage cans36Nendo Duo-tab Can EndPunched tab endEmbossed TabColoured EndEngraved EndsInnovation&New Product DevelopmentSome examples of recent technical innovation in beverage can ends37Innovation&New Product DevelopmentSource:1 Golden Grail Beverages,June

117、2024;2 Packaging Europe,April 2024;3 Food Manufacture,May 2024;Images from Golden Grail Beverages,Glaceau smartwater,Turncoat Gin DistilleryThe application of these innovations focuses on winning at shelf,cutting costs,and improving products sustainable credentialsMore cost-effective formatReplacing

118、 plastic with aluminumReplacing glass with aluminumGlaceau smartwater,12oz cans,USOriginally packaged in plastic bottles,Glaceausmartwaterannounceditssmartwater product would be available in12oz aluminum cans that sport a newvisual design on April 1,20242.The newmaterial aims to improve the companys

119、sustainability credentials,while the newformat and on-pack design makes for avisually appealing hydration option.Golden Grail Beverages,16oz cans,USIn June 2024,Golden Grail Beveragesannounced a new production run of KOZWater in 16oz cans1.The company reportsthat packaging this product in a largeral

120、uminum can makes for a more cost-efficientproductionline.Thesecostsavings can be passed onto the consumer,whichmakesKOZWateramorecompetitiveproductintodayschallenging economic environment.TurncoatGinDistillery,Aluminumbottles,UKLiverpool-based Turncoat Gin Distilleryannounced it was replacing its tr

121、aditionalglass packaging with aluminum bottles3.The new bottles save approximately 0.4kgof greenhouse gas emissions per bottlecompared to traditional glass bottles.Thisis because the aluminum bottles arereusable and are 84%lighter than glassalternatives,improving freight efficiency.386.Conclusions&O

122、utlook 39Conclusions&OutlookConclusions-General Market Conditions&Status.Macro-Economics Whilst more stable than in 2022/3,the macro-economic situation remains fragile,volatile and subject to sudden shifts from geo-political,economic and regulatory changeConsumers In spite of inflation falling to mo

123、re normalized levels,global consumers still exhibit elevated levels of financial concern,putting downward pressures on volume consumption and in many countries and regionsBeverage Markets Driven by health&wellness trends,there is a continuing ongoing shift in beverage markets to low and no-alcoholic

124、 beer,wines and spirits,functional,low sugar and plant based soft drinks,are these popular across the demographic spectrumEmerging Economies Global beverage volumes can growth is being led by the major emerging economies of Asia(India&China especially),the Middle East/Africa and Latin America40Concl

125、usions&OutlookConclusions General Market Conditions&Status.Sustainability Beverage cans are well positioned from a sustainability perspective from their core strength as an infinitely recyclable material and high intrinsic post-consumer waste value.Weaknesses are in energy production and lack of ref

126、illable options.Regulatory Environment Beverage packaging continues to lead developments in regulations surrounding post-consumer packaging waste.Recent initiatives include more widespread re-emphasis on DRS and DDRS systems and refillable containers.Technology Beverage can-making is a highly effici

127、ent,innovative and technology driven industry and new technology is rapidlybeing adapted not just the consumer interface but also supply side aspects of the industry,creating new opportunities for growth.Channel Demand Both channel and category demand are still quite narrow for beverage cans compare

128、d to competitive packaging types;adapting cans to other beverage and non-beverage categories and channels should foster stronger growth41Conclusions&Outlook Key Future Opportunities for Beverage CansIndia/Africa/Middle EastWater,Wines&Spirits,Craft BeersOn-premise/food service and eCommerce channels

129、Bottles vs CansTechnology-driven differentiation,personalisation-and premiumizationAI Driven automation and energy-efficient productionLower sugar content drinks,still drinks&juicesNo/low alcohol beveragesFunctional,plant and dairy drinksDRS,DDRS&RecyclingMacro-economic&Supply/demand stabilisationNo

130、n-beverage applicationsMany key future opportunities lie in targeting overlapping and synergistic growth countries,categories,markets and technologies42Conclusions&Outlook -Possible Future Threats for Beverage Cans Geopolitical,Environmental and Economic issues causing sudden changeInvestment Risk e

131、merging marketsOvercapacity established marketsNarrow existing category focusIncreasingly fragmented categories and brandsCompetition from single use PET in developing marketsCompetition from rPET,refPET and returnable glass in mature marketsIncreasing regulatory focus on reduce and refill vs recycl

132、ingThe challenges and costs of DRS implementationExposure to high and variable energy labour and material input costsDifficulties in matching supply to demand impacting pricingThe future is never without risk,so understanding and dealing with the threats is as important as exploiting opportunitiesFu

133、ture demographics 43Conclusions&Outlook Long-term Demographic ChangeRapidly declining birth rates and slowing population growth present significant challenges in the longer term44Conclusions&Outlook 10 Strategies for Future Growth1Focus on the emerging global regions and categories where beverage ca

134、n per capita consumption is relatively low and growingfast(e.g.India,beer and packaged water)2Diversify out of the core Soft Drink,Beer and Cider categories,targeting less developed categories such as packaged water,wines&spirits3Consider the wider development of beverage can use in the On-Trade sec

135、tor and this is changing rapidly4Work closely with customers to target new products especially in growth categories such as the low and no-alcoholic and low sugar drinks as consumers and regulators push for healthier solutions5Use new can production technologies and finishing techniques to different

136、 brands and create greater differentiation 6Focus on closer consumer and customer engagement and short run variable output as markets continue to grow and fragment7Invest in extended use of AI systems,automation and robotics to maintain and improve production and efficiency levels without compromisi

137、ng speed and costs8Sustainable production,energy use and reduced emissions remain a key to remaining competitive versus alternate materials,attractive to customers and consumers and acceptable within the regulations9Embrace and prepare for the wider roll outs of DRS system to improve recycling level

138、s and material quality further10Tackle possible likely sustainability competition form rPET,rePET and refillable glass bottles,driven by recent regulatory movesThere is nothing so constant as change,so adapting to an ever-changing market is the key to success45 GlobalData Plc.All Rights Reserved.Thi

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142、ther verbally or in wring,should not beconsidered as regulated investment advice.Email:Thank you for your attentionDominic CakebreadGlobal Packaging Services DirectorGlobalData PlcTel:+44 7488 599528“It is not the strongest of the species that survives,nor the most intelligent of the species.It is t

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