冰雹是怎么回事？！.pdf

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1、What the hail is going on?!Why severe convective storm loss has been increasing Using catastrophe models to quantify current and future risk Leveraging catastrophe models and claims experience to manage exposure to frequency perils2 Why severe convective storm loss has been increasing Using catastro

2、phe models to quantify current and future risk Leveraging catastrophe models and claims experience to manage exposure to frequency perilsAgenda for“What the hail?!”2023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Amy Green|June 5,2023SCS trends42023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.Large SCS losses have beenincreasing exponentially

3、Weather shocks on the rise-5 10 15 20 2503 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22BillionsPCS Personal Lines Severe Storm Event History Substantial growth in PCS SCS losses:+11.5%annual growth rate 7x growth since 200352023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.What is driving the increase inSCS lo

4、ss?Damageability TrendsAging housing stockLoss cost trendsUnexplained Neighboritis,unscrupulous contractorsRegional hail frequency changesExposure TrendsHousing increases and TIVPopulation shift/urban sprawlClimateAre there more events or are they worse?Tornado vs.hail trends62023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER

5、&CO.Rates of tornado activity have been stableNumber of TornadoesTornado frequencies have not increased over recent historyMore destructive/higher magnitude tornadoes have also been in line with historical levels0500100015002000200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

6、2018201920202021#of TornadosEF5EF4EF3EF2EF1EF00204060801002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021#of TornadoesEF5EF4EF372023 ARTHUR J.GALLAGHER&CO.-100 200 3002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Mill