宏观经济对再保险的影响.pdf

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1、|2023 Conning,Inc.Macroeconomic Impact on ReinsurancePresentation to the Casualty Actuarial SocietyJune 20231Agenda1.New Market Realities!2.First It Was Inflation3.Reinsurance Market Reset4.What Happened to the Capital Account?5.Implications for Primary InsurersNEW MARKET REALITIES3Insurers Are Adap

2、ting to a New World!Implications for Primary InsurersInvestment ValuesReinsurance CapacityCapitalReserve AdequacyNegative FactorsUpward ForcesInflationReinsurance PricesInsured ValuesInterest RatesHigher growthHigher riskPremium on capital managementEconomic,social+15%,MINIMUMHigher premiums,higher

3、severityHigher NII,higher cost of capitalDislocation of deployable capitalRealized and unrealized lossesDown 14%since YE 21Pressured by inflation2023 Conning,Inc4Risk Transfer Challenged with Capacity ConstraintsRisk TransferFunctioning MarketDislocated MarketRetroILWILSRe/insurerReinsurersU.S.Europ

4、eBermudaLloydsILSPrimary InsurersRegionalSpecialistNationalStocksMutuals/ReciprocalsConsumers and Businesses20 Markets book value?4Hard Markets Too ShortShort-lived hard markets with new capital and competition driving rates down5New vs.ExistingMore attractive to invest in existing companies and sid

5、ecar vehicles6Recent Track RecordInvestors stung by above-average losses in 5 of last 6 years7Rise of Secondary PerilsDiversifying perils become peak exposures8Inflation and Loss CreepAccelerating severity with both economic and social inflation9Model ReliabilityToo much reliance on models with inhe

6、rent limitations10Management ExpertiseIs there sufficient pool of bankable management talent?A.Over the next 3-5 years the insurance markets will adapt and become less dependent on reinsurance and related capital market instruments.B.The next 3-5 years will see a(near)continuation of current conditi