Eric Oak - SPGMI.pdf

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1、 2025 S&P Global.Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.Reactions and remediesSupply Chain OutlookS&P Global Market IntelligenceQ1 2025 2025 S&P Global.2Agenda Rivalries and friendships:Trump 2.0;Trumps tariffs not the

2、 only game in town Finding a logistics balance:Trade growth is expected to slow and shipping capacity will rise Deploying the playbook:Weve been here before,but the cost-cutting imperative leads the way 2024 S&P Global.3Rivalries and friendshipsTrump 2.0 2025 S&P Global.4President Trumps targeting d

3、riven by trade deficits;transactional approachRivalries and friendships:Protectionism casts a shadow,creates opportunitiesTrade protectionism is set to be the defining factor of 2025010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000MexicoSouth KoreaJapanIndiaThailandVietnamAlgeriaCambodiaLaosTunisiaUS trad

4、e deficit with regionMainland China trade surplus with regionUS trade deficit building at same time as China trade surplusChange in net merchandise trade position,US$M in 12 months to Sep.30,2024 versus 2021 2025 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence.Data compiled Nov.11,2024.2025 S&P Glo

5、bal.5US trade deficit with Ireland reaches US$93B,up by 54%since 2021Rivalries and friendships:Protectionism casts a shadow,creates opportunitiesIreland particularly exposed thanks to diet drug shipments02468101214Jan 2016Jan 2018Jan 2020Jan 2022Jan 2024Pharmaceuticals incl.ingredientsElectronicsFoo

6、d,beveragesOthersDiet drugs drive US trade deficit with Ireland to record highUS trade-in-goods sector deficit with Ireland,US$B 2025 S&P Global.Source:S&P Global Market Intelligence.Data compiled Mar.21,2025.2025 S&P Global.6Something for everyoneRivalries and friendships:Protectionism casts a shad