航空行业：政策优化方向渐明航空周期底部起航-230115（46页）.pdf

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1、政策优化方向渐明，航空周期底部起航政策优化方向渐明，航空周期底部起航Focus on Investment Opportunities of Airline under Policy Optimization本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the

2、 disclaimer)Equity Asia Research虞楠，虞楠，Nan Yu 陈宇，陈宇，Yu Chen 2023年年1月月15日日2For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 航空：困境反转，大周期底部盘桓再起航航空：困境反转，大周期底部盘桓再起航1.回顾：疫情反复压制需求，油价高企、汇率贬值，行业周期底部

3、盘桓回顾：疫情反复压制需求，油价高企、汇率贬值，行业周期底部盘桓2.展望：供给收紧、票价放开，大周期起航可期展望：供给收紧、票价放开，大周期起航可期1）行业整合可能性加大，供给收紧确定性增加）行业整合可能性加大，供给收紧确定性增加2）需求韧性足，中长期增速可期）需求韧性足，中长期增速可期3）票价市场化继续推进，价格弹性可期）票价市场化继续推进，价格弹性可期4）从美国航空疫后复盘表现）从美国航空疫后复盘表现3.建议：估值具有安全边际，行业大周期前景可期，关注板块投资机会建议：估值具有安全边际，行业大周期前景可期，关注板块投资机会1UvZ8WkZcXrQyQsQaQ9RbRsQoOmOsRfQrR

4、pOfQnMpQ9PmMuNuOnMtOvPpMsM3For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 回顾：疫情反复压制需求，油价高企、汇率贬值，行业周期底回顾：疫情反复压制需求，油价高企、汇率贬值，行业周期底部盘桓部盘桓第一节要点：1.疫情冲击，供需跌至底部2.油价上涨、人民币贬值，航司业绩“雪上加霜”3.供需持续低迷、油

5、汇冲击，预计全年亏损创新高4.年初至今股价反复震荡，但相对收益显著。4For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.受疫情反复影响，供需同比下滑至低位受疫情冲击，六家上市公司（不含华夏航空）1-10月总供给、需求同比各下滑35.2%/41.0%（不到19年同期的40%），客座率同比下滑6.5个百分点至65.9%。资料来

6、源：wind，各上市公司月度生产运营数据公告，HTI5For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.油价攀升，人民币快速贬值，航司业绩“雪上加霜”油价攀升令航油成本持续上涨，人民币快速贬值，预计航司全年亏损创新高。资料来源：Wind，HTI测算图 油价图 汇率（USD/bbl）（USD/RMB）注：22Q4数据为HTI

7、测算，数据计算依据截至2022年11月25日。1020304050607080901001101201301401月月2月月3月月4月月5月月6月月7月月8月月9月月10月月11月月12月月20192020202120226.26.46.66.87.07.21月月2月月3月月4月月5月月6月月7月月8月月9月月10月月11月月12月月201920202021202219Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4E航空煤油出厂价航空煤油出厂价（元（元/吨）吨）4756 5069 4884 4956 4732 214

8、4 2833 2679 3522 4111 4518 5151 5462 7956 8805 7961 环比增长率环比增长率-19.9%6.6%-3.6%1.5%-4.5%-54.7%32.1%-5.4%31.5%16.7%9.9%14.0%6.0%45.7%9.5%-18.0%同比增长率同比增长率-0.5%-57.7%-42.0%-45.9%-25.6%91.7%59.5%92.3%55.1%93.5%94.9%54.5%期间汇率均值期间汇率均值(USD/RMB)6.75 6.82 6.99 7.03 6.97 7.08 6.92 6.62 6.48 6.46 6.47 6.39 6.35

9、6.616.70 6.70 升贬值升贬值1.9%-2.1%-2.9%1.4%-1.6%0.1%3.8%4.2%-0.7%1.7%-0.4%1.7%-0.4%5.7%5.8%0.5%6For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.供需持续低迷、油汇冲击，预计全年亏损创新高受疫情影响，供需持续低迷，2022年前三季度六家上

10、市航司总营收同比下滑22%（较19年同期下滑52%），叠加油价上涨、人民币大幅贬值，总亏损同比增225%。资料来源：航班管家，Wind，HTI图 2022年前三季度航司营收图 2022年前三季度航司归母净利润图中国内地民航市场执飞趋势图 行业飞机日利用率1031 1167 116 130 40 485 654 68 72 33 575 785 86 91 33 421 702 66 65 20 0200400600800100012001400中国国航南方航空春秋航空吉祥航空海航控股9M199M209M219M22（人民币亿68 41 17 12 4-101-75-1-5 2-281-176-

11、17-30-15 -300-200-100-100中国国航南方航空春秋航空吉祥航空海航控股9M199M209M219M22（人民币亿7For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.年初至今股价反复震荡，但相对收益显著资料来源：Wind，HTI图年初至今股价走势图-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-25%-20%-15%

12、-10%-5%0%5%10%2022-11-302022-11-222022-11-142022-11-042022-10-272022-10-192022-10-112022-09-262022-09-162022-09-072022-08-302022-08-222022-08-122022-08-042022-07-272022-07-192022-07-112022-07-012022-06-232022-06-152022-06-072022-05-272022-05-192022-05-112022-04-282022-04-202022-04-122022-03-312022-0

13、3-232022-03-152022-03-072022-02-252022-02-172022-02-092022-01-252022-01-172022-01-07航空运输(申万)相对收益（右轴）上证综指累计涨幅（左轴）交通运输（申万）累计涨幅（左轴）航空运输(申万)累计涨幅（左轴）8For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our websi

14、te at 展望：供给收紧、票价放开，大周期起航可期疫情冲击，航司经营压力加剧，行业有望迎来整合，助益集中度提升；波音空客产业链亦受影响，“3.21空难”等或令行业监管趋严，供给增速进一步放缓；我国民航业中长期需求韧性足，价格端弹性可期。“后疫情时代”美国航空市场表现复盘。第二节要点：9For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our websit

15、e at 1.疫情冲击，航司经营压力加大，行业有望整合22年受疫情反复影响，即使经租进表后对经营性现金流带来正向作用，但上市航司整体依旧经营净现金流为负或仅小幅回正，资产负债率继续攀升，航企普遍面临资金压力。资料来源：各上市公司季度报告，Wind，民航发展统计公报，HTI图 上市航司单季度合计经营净现金流图 上市航司资产负债率情况（人民币百万）（资产负债率%）4050607080901001101202019.12.31 2020.12.31 2021.12.31 2022.9.30中国国航南方航空春秋航空吉祥航空海航控股华夏航空-30000-20000-10000-10000 20000 3

16、0000 400001Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q191Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q2210For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.疫情冲击，航司经营压力加大，行业有望整合纵观历史，2000年后出现两次行业整合，集中度提升：1）2003年，政府主导下的航司整合，形成以三大航空集团为主的

17、格局（2003年SARS冲击）；2）2008年次贷危机后，国航控股深航（10年）。资料来源：民航发展统计公报，Wind,HTI图图 三大航集中度（三大航集中度（RPK口径）口径）11For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.供给：机队引进增速放缓，运力扩张受限20年受疫情冲击，波音空客部分工厂停工，全球机队交付进度

18、明显放缓，交付数据跌至低谷；21年交付有所回升但仍受供应链影响；22年俄乌冲突影响上游原材料供应进而限制飞机制造商产能。图 波音历史年度飞机交付数图 空客历史年度飞机交付数图 波音历史月订单交付数图 空客历史月订单交付数02004006008002015201720192021（架）02004006008002015201720192021（架）0204060202120202019月均20220204060801001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月202120202019月均2022（架）（架）注：2019年3月埃航事件发酵后，波音重点机型737MAX停飞停产，致使其1

19、9年交付数据不到18年的一半。资料来源：波音、空客官网，民航资源网，HTI12For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.供给：机队引进增速放缓，运力扩张受限受737max停产影响，三大航2019年机队净增数削减（全民航2019年机队仅净增179架，约为18年的一半）；2020年受疫情影响达到最低点，21年虽有所回升

20、但仍未达到19年水平；22年前10个月六家上市航司仅净增26架飞机（+0.9%yoy），20-22年累积净增4.8%。考虑疫情、供应商产能及国际关系影响等因素，预计23-25年机队维持低速扩张。资料来源：民航发展统计公报，历年各上市公司年报，各上市公司2017-2021年各月度运营数据公告，HTI测算图 全民航机队净增数（架）注：2022年及之后年份为HTI预测数据13For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please ref

21、er to the latest full report on our website at 2.供给：监管趋严进一步限制供给增长我们分析近年来“3.21空难”、“5.12”西藏航空飞机冲出跑道等多起航空安全事故将令行业监管趋严，行业供给增速进一步受限：一方面，航空承运人牌照下发将更为谨慎；另一方面，今年以来疫情影响令航班量持续低位，机组人员实际执飞时长不够或令机长牌照维系受影响，预计机长牌照数量今年将进一步下滑。资料来源：民航发展统计公报，HTI表 航司数量（含纯货运航司）表 飞行员牌照4347464651555958606264650.0%9.3%-2.1%0.0%10.9%7.8%7.3

22、%-1.7%3.4%3.3%3.2%1.6%-5%0%5%10%15%010203040506070201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000201620172018201920202021(张)机长商用普通机长环比(右轴)商用普通环比(右轴)(家)14For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price format

23、ion on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.需求：我国民航中长期内生需求增长潜力可观一方面我国的人均乘机次数较海外发达国家仍有很大的空间，2019年我国的人均乘机次数仅有0.47次，较美国等（2.82次）有很大的差距。另一方面，据22年1月公布的“十四五”民用航空发展规划，人均乘机次数从19年的0.47次提升至0.67次，预计25年底旅客量达9.3亿人次，较19年共计增41%，预计19-25年的人均客运复合增速达5.9%（15-19年均复合增速10.9%）。资料来源

24、：CAAC，HTI图 旅客量运输人次图 旅客量增速(40)(30)(20)(10)010203001002003004005006007008009001000200620092012201520182021民航运输人次(亿人）YOY（右轴）(百万人次)(yoy%)01234567200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020（人均乘机次数）中国内地中国香港日本美国欧盟（包含英国）欧盟英国15For full disclosure of risks,valuation me

25、thodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.需求：从海外市场恢复节奏“窥见”我国民航前景可期海外大部分国家调整防疫政策，逐步放宽管制措施，航空恢复势头强劲。2022年11月份欧洲、北美、南美、大洋洲市场航班恢复率分别达到79%、83%、87%、92%。（对比2019年同期）资料来源：航班管家全球民航复苏趋势报告，HTI表 欧洲客运航班恢复趋势表 北美客运航班恢复趋势表 大洋洲客运航班恢复趋势表 南

26、美客运航班恢复趋势16For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.需求：从海外市场恢复节奏“窥见”我国民航前景可期资料来源：IATA，HTI图 北美航空全市场恢复情况图 北美航空国际市场恢复情况图 亚太航空全市场恢复情况图 亚太航空国际市场恢复情况22年来北美欧洲等海外国家疫情防控管制趋于宽松，航空逐月快速恢复：1）

27、国内恢复进度快于国际；2）二季度以来，海外国际市场加速修复；3）亚太区域进度落后拖累欧美国家国际市场修复。-100.0%-90.0%-80.0%-70.0%-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%客座率收入客公里（VS2019,右轴）可用座公里（VS2019,右轴）-120.0%-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%客座率收入客公里（VS2019,右轴）可用座公里（VS2019,右轴）-1

28、20%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%客座率收入客公里（VS2019,右轴）可用座公里（VS2019,右轴）-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%客座率收入客公里（VS2019,右轴）可用座公里（VS2019,右轴）17For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stock

29、s,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 4.价格：票价放开继续推进，释放业绩弹性空间资料来源：Wind，携程网，中国民航报，HTI表 美国CPI各主要指标与19年同期对比情况反观美国CPI各主要指标，随着经济复苏、货币宽松政策下，22年1-10月各CPI指数同比19年均实现不同程度的上涨；就机票价格指数来看，随着需求强势修复，22年4-7月价格涨幅明显。我国票价市场化继续推进，提供价格弹性，进一步打开航司盈利天花板。美国:CPI指标名称美国:CPI指标名称10月VS19同期10月VS19同期9月VS19同期9月VS1

30、9同期8月VS19同期8月VS19同期7月VS19同期7月VS19同期6月VS19同期6月VS19同期5月VS19同期5月VS19同期4月VS19同期4月VS19同期3月VS19同期3月VS19同期 2月VS19同期2月VS19同期 1月VS19同期1月VS19同期家庭食品家庭食品23.1%22.9%22.3%21.3%19.6%18.1%16.6%14.9%13.5%12.3%非家用食品非家用食品18.7%17.9%17.1%16.3%15.7%15.0%14.4%14.1%14.0%13.9%能源类商品能源类商品45.8%43.2%50.5%63.8%79.0%55.8%47.0%62.5

31、%46.5%42.1%能源服务能源服务30.1%32.3%30.6%27.8%27.8%23.3%19.3%17.5%15.7%15.4%商品,不含食品和能源类商品商品,不含食品和能源类商品15.5%15.7%15.6%15.2%15.1%14.4%13.6%13.4%13.9%13.2%二手汽车和卡车43.8%47.1%47.8%49.6%51.3%50.1%47.3%48.2%52.4%51.5%服务,不含能源服务服务,不含能源服务12.2%11.9%11.3%11.0%10.8%10.4%9.9%9.4%9.0%8.7%其他外宿,包括酒店和旅馆12.9%4.9%8.1%5.9%9.4%1

32、1.6%11.6%10.6%7.7%6.7%运输服务14.4%13.5%11.6%11.5%11.9%9.8%8.5%5.3%3.3%1.8%机票8.9%8.3%8.3%14.1%22.5%24.5%12.8%-4.2%-13.1%-16.2%fromfromtoto第八轮提价航司第八轮提价航司最新价格最新价格提价幅度提价幅度fromfrom北京（首都、大兴）北京（首都、大兴）上海（浦东、虹上海（浦东、虹桥）桥）海航海航215073%北京（首都、北京（首都、大兴）大兴）北京（首都、大兴）北京（首都、大兴）广州广州/白云白云306060%北京（首都、北京（首都、大兴）大兴）北京（首都、大兴）北京

33、（首都、大兴）深圳深圳/宝安宝安332060%北京（首都、北京（首都、大兴）大兴）上海（浦东、虹桥）上海（浦东、虹桥）深圳宝安深圳宝安深航深航245075%上海（浦东、上海（浦东、虹桥）虹桥）上海（浦东、虹桥）上海（浦东、虹桥）广州广州/白云白云上海航空上海航空235074%上海（浦东、上海（浦东、虹桥）虹桥）表 北上广深间互飞航线价格表注：1）更新至2022年11月30日2）第八轮提价已开始，预计将继续推进。截至2022年冬航季，各航司已累积完成8轮提价工作，目前北上广深间互飞航线有部分航司完成经济舱全价票上限累积提价约74%（累积提价6次）。我们预计核心商务航线经济舱、旺季旅游航线价格上调

34、传导效果好，需求恢复后更有望全额传导。18For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 5.“后疫情时代”美国航空市场表现复盘我们观察美国航空业恢复节奏得出以下几个结论：1）22年Q1及以前供给恢复快于需求，22年Q2后需求加快恢复，客座率超越疫情前水平；我们分析一方面或因美国未采取严格的“静态管理”政策，供给自20年4月

35、触底后逐步回升，而需求则更多受制于实际病毒感染影响，在“奥秘克戎”冲击死亡率明显下降后，出行信心回升，需求快速修复超越供给恢复速度。2）22年Q2后国际加快恢复，我们分析或主因海外多数国家逐步取消出入境限制。3）整体供给尚未超越疫情前水平，我们分析或主要受制于人员及运力缺口（前四大航平均职工数量约为疫情前93%左右水平）及机场保障能力不足等因素。资料来源：万得，Bloomberg，DOT，HTI图 美国国内航空市场恢复情况图 美国国际航空市场恢复情况-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%客座率收入客公里（VS201

36、9,右轴）可用座公里（vs2019,右轴）-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%客座率收入客公里（VS2019,右轴）可用座公里（vs2019,右轴）19For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 5.“后疫情时代”美国航空市场表现复盘随着需求逐步恢

37、复，美国主要航空公司业绩整体得到改善。以美国四大航空公司（美联航、美国航空、西南航空、达美航空）为例，22年Q2、Q3营业收入已连续两个季度超过19年同期。21年Q2&Q3，因油价处于相对低位，需求阶段性修复，航司整体由亏转盈；但21年Q4因油价上涨，叠加奥秘克戎冲击抑制需求，连续两个季度亏损；随着疫情影响减弱且进入旅游旺季，22年Q2供需显著改善，价格提升，行业再次由亏转盈，并已连续两个季度实现盈利。资料来源：Bloomberg，HTI图 美国前四大航空公司分季度营收图 美国前四大航空公司分季度净利润-100.0-50.00.050.0100.001002003004005001Q182Q1

38、83Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q22美国四大航司单季度营收（亿美元，左轴）环比（QoQ%，右轴）-10000.0-8000.0-6000.0-4000.0-2000.00.02000.0(150)(100)(50)050美国四大航司单季度净利（亿美元，左轴）环比（QoQ%，右轴）20For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,ple

39、ase refer to the latest full report on our website at 5.“后疫情时代”美国航空市场表现复盘自22Q2开始，美国航司需求恢复速度超过供给，带来客座率、票价齐升；票价涨幅明显（+20%yoy vs2019），我们分析其中或有油价上涨因素推动；而当票价恢复速度优于或略小于成本涨幅时，航司盈利（21Q2&Q3,22Q2&Q3）。资料来源：Bloomberg，IATA，wind，HTI图 美国前四大航空供需及客座率变化图 原油及机票价格指数走势图图 美国前四大航空公司票价及成本恢复率图 美国前四大航空供需及客座率、票价恢复情况0%50%100%15

40、0%四大航供给恢复率四大航需求恢复率四大航客座率恢复率四大航票价恢复率100%50%250%四大航单位收益（乘客收入/RPM）四大航总单位成本(总成本/ASM）四大航扣油单位成本（扣油成本/ASM)四大航油耗单位成本(油耗成本/ASM)100%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%050010001500200025003000ASM(左轴)RPM（左轴）客座率（右轴）（亿座（人）/公里）100150200250300350204060801001201402019/1/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/12020/1/1202

41、0/3/12020/5/12020/7/12020/9/12020/11/12021/1/12021/3/12021/5/12021/7/12021/9/12021/11/12022/1/12022/3/12022/5/12022/7/12022/9/1(USD/bbl)布伦特原油期货月均价（左轴）美国机票价格指数（右轴）21For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full

42、report on our website at 5.“后疫情时代”美国航空市场表现复盘自20年疫情以来，美国航空股市场表现基本与大盘一致，但以19年底为基数计始终未跑赢大盘；22年以来，随着出行需求的修复，美国航空股Q1&Q2&Q4均跑赢大盘；疫情以来的航空股上涨略领先需求恢复表现，我们分析2022年Q2及Q4的超额收益主因当期市场对航空股盈利信心提振。资料来源：wind，IATA，HTI图 2022年初至今美国航空股相对收益表现-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%相对标普500收益航空股收益S&P500收益-40%-30%-20%-10%0

43、%10%20%30%美西南达美美航美联航图2020年初至今美国航空股收益表现-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%美西南达美美航美联航-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%相对标普500收益S&P500收益航空股收益图 2020年初至今美国航空股收益表现图 2020年初至今美国航空股相对收益表现22For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the lat

44、est full report on our website at 估值具有安全边际，行业大周期前景可期，关注板块投资机会基本面遭遇“黎明前的黑暗”，估值具有一定安全边际，“疫情后”行业业绩回升可期；尽管人民币大幅贬值带来业绩波动，但近年美元债务规模进一步下降，汇率敏感性缩小；长期看，外围油汇边际向好。结合航司航线结构，短中期内循环下关注春秋航空、吉祥航空，后期关注充分受益价格弹性的中国国航、南方航空。第三节要点：23For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HT

45、I rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 1.估值具有一定安全边际23年1月4日收盘价对应国航、南航估值约2.6x、4.6x 2023E PB，南航、国航历史10年均值区间约（0.8x-4.7x），估值具有一定安全边际；此外，春秋航空、吉祥航空分别为3.8x和3.3x 2023E PB（历史均值各为3.6x，2.8x PB）。24For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on

46、all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 2.若美元债占比下降；若油汇稳定，则业绩回升可期短期人民币快速贬值，油价高位或对航司利润造成负面影响，加剧短期行业经营压力。但一方面，美元债规模占比均下滑，汇兑敏感性较19年均有明显下降，一定程度减少业绩波动；进入Q3油价渐趋下降助益业绩改善。注：指对归母净利润的直接影响金额资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，HTI测算图 国航、南航汇兑敏感性图 国航、南航美元债务比例人民币(百万）25For full disclosure of ri

47、sks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at *基本条件*2019年布伦特油均价为63.49美元/桶，汇率为1美元兑人民币6.98元。单位：百万元中国国航中国国航南方航空南方航空吉祥航空吉祥航空春秋航空春秋航空2019年净利润6409 2651 994 1841 变化额变化额变化幅度变化幅度变化额变化额变化幅度变化幅度变化额变化额变化幅度变化幅度变化额变化额变化幅度变化幅

48、度票价提升1%875 13.65%905 34.16%116 11.65%110 5.97%客座率增加1个百分点1078 16.81%1094 41.27%136 13.67%121 6.58%油价上涨1美元/桶-398-6.21%-441-16.63%-49-4.91%-50-2.73%人民币贬值1%（汇兑损益）-517-8.07%-586-22.12%-37-0.60%-36-1.96%期间汇率-人民币贬值1%（经营成本）-349-5.45%-384-14.50%-42-4.27%-42-2.26%油价上涨1美元/桶（征收附加费）119 1.86%132 4.99%15 1.47%15 0

49、.82%表 航司油价汇率敏感性测算表注：指对归母净利润的直接影响金额资料来源：Wind，Bloomberg，HTI测算2.若美元债占比下降；若油汇稳定，则业绩回升可期26For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 3.内循环下首选小航，长线关注航网优秀的中国国航国航国内线航网相对最优，协调机场航网结构占其国内线33.5%

50、，居于航司首位。资料来源：民航预飞行系统2022年夏秋季公司航班正班计划，HTI前十大机场对飞航线占其国内线20.4%，领先其他上市机场；前十大机场对飞市场份额中，国航占比达24.5%，后期能充分受益需求恢复后的机票价格弹性。27For full disclosure of risks,valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks,please refer to the latest full report on our website at 人民币大幅贬值 油价大幅上涨 经济衰退风险提示风

51、险提示APPENDIX 128SummaryLooking back to 2022,the airline industry has been at the bottom of the cycle due to the suppressed demand caused bythe epidemic.Looking forward to 2023:the airline industry is expected to tighten supply,liberalize ticket prices,and setsail in a large period.1)The possibility o

52、f industry integration is increased,and the certainty of supply tightening isincreased.2)The demand is flexible enough,and its medium and long-term growth rate can be expected.3)Themarketization of ticket prices continues to advance,and the price elasticity can be expected.4)It can also be provedfro

53、m the performance of the United States after the epidemic.We suggest paying attention to the opportunities for theairlines.Risks:Weaker-than-expected economic environment,volatility of FX and oil price,etcAPPENDIX 2重要信息披露重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Lim

54、ited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThis research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited(“

55、HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and anyother members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each authorized to engage in securities activit

56、ies in its respectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，虞楠，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Nan Yu,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my

57、 personal views about any or all of the subject companies orissuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)h

58、ave no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companiesdiscussed.我，陈宇，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Yu Chen,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report a

59、ccurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies orissuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report;and that I(including membe

60、rs of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companiesdiscussed.29APPENDIX 2利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-D）HTI and some of its affil

61、iates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companiesin this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclos

62、uredoes not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了600029.CH and 600221.CH的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haiton

63、g Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 600029.CH and 600221.CH within thepast 12 months.The investment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity

64、 or debtrefinancing projects of 600029.CH and 600221.CH for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by introduction in the newthree board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.600029.CH 及 600221.CH目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。600

65、029.CH and 600221.CH are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.601111.CH,南航二号租赁（天津）有限公司,600221.CH 及 天津元瑞四融资租赁有限公司目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非证券业务服务。601111.CH,南航二号租赁（天津）有限公司,600221.CH and 天津元瑞四融资租赁有限公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past

66、12 months.The client has been provided for non-securities services.30APPENDIX 2海通在过去12个月中获得对600029.CH提供投资银行服务的报酬。Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 600029.CH.海通在过去的12个月中从601111.CH,南航二号租赁（天津）有限公司,600221.CH 及 天津元瑞四融资租赁有限公司获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报

67、酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 601111.CH,南航二号租赁（天津）有限公司,600221.CH and 天津元瑞四融资租赁有限公司.海通担任601111.CH 及 600029.CH有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 601111.CH and

68、600029.CH.31APPENDIX 2评级定义评级定义（从从2020年年7月月1日开始执行日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数

69、变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100,美国美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperfo

70、rm,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors shouldcarefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete informationconcerning the analysts views,investors

71、 should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances(suchas

72、the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock RatingsOutperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expecte

73、d to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return

74、of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.32APPENDIX 2评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution33APPENDIX 2截至截至2022年年12月月31日日海通国际股票研究评级

75、分布海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市优于大市中性中性弱于大市弱于大市(持有持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率89.4%9.2%1.5%投资银行客户*5.2%7.3%8.3%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义此前的评级系统定义（直至直至2020年年6月月30日日）：买入买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不

76、大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数：日本各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国韩国 KOSPI,台湾台湾 TAIEX,印度印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Dec 31,2022OutperformNeutralUnderperform(hold)HTI Equity

77、 Research Coverage89.4%9.2%1.5%IB clients*5.2%7.3%8.3%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,o

78、ur Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are notincluded in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad ma

79、rket benchmark,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Forpurposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating categ

80、ory.SELL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI

81、China.34APPENDIX 2海通国际非评级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation ando

82、ther metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples.Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices orfundamental values and are for information only.海通国际海通国际A股覆盖股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是

83、，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares:Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme withShanghai and Shenzhen.Haitong Securities(HS;600837 CH),the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Sh

84、anghai,covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China.However,the rating system employed by HS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTIand HS ratings for the same A-share stocks.海通国际海通国际优质优质100 A股股（Q100）指数指数：海通国际Q100指

85、数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HSin Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected thr

86、ough a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the HS A-share teams bottom-up research.The Q100 constituent companies are reviewed quarterly.35APPENDIX 2MSCI ESG评级免责声明条款：评级免责声明条款：尽管海通国际的信息供货商（包括但不限于MSCI ESG Research LLC及其联属公司（ESG方）从其认为可靠的来源获取信息（信息）,ESG方均不担保或保证此处任何数据的原创性，准确性和/

87、或完整性，并明确表示不作出任何明示或默示的担保，包括可商售性和针对特定目的的适用性。该信息只能供阁下内部使用，不得以任何形式复制或重新传播，并不得用作任何金融工具、产品或指数的基础或组成部分。此外，信息本质上不能用于判断购买或出售何种证券,或何时购买或出售该证券。即使已被告知可能造成的损害,ESG方均不承担与此处任何资料有关的任何错误或遗漏所引起的任何责任，也不对任何直接、间接、特殊、惩罚性、附带性或任何其他损害赔偿（包括利润损失）承担任何责任。MSCI ESG Disclaimer:Although Haitong Internationals information providers,i

88、ncluding without limitation,MSCI ESG Research LLC and its affiliates(the“ESG Parties”),obtain information(the“Information”)from sources they consider reliable,none of the ESG Parties warrants or guarantees the originality,accuracy and/orcompleteness,of any data herein and expressly disclaim all expr

89、ess or implied warranties,including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.TheInformation may only be used for your internal use,may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for,or a component of,anyfinancial instruments or products or ind

90、ices.Further,none of the Information can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy orsell them.None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any data herein,or any liability for any direct,indirect,special,p

91、unitive,consequential or any other damages(including lost profits)even if notified of the possibility of such damages.36APPENDIX 2盟浪义利盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：第一条 义利（FIN-ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司的评估结果仅供参考，

92、并不构成对任何个人或机构投资建议，也不能作为任何个人或机构购买、出售或持有相关金融产品的依据。本公司不对任何个人或机构投资者因使用本数据表述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。第二条 盟浪并不因收到此评估数据而将收件人视为客户，收件人使用此数据时应根据自身实际情况作出自我独立判断。本数据所载内容反映的是盟浪在最初发布本数据日期当日的判断，盟浪有权在不发出通知的情况下更新、修订与发出其他与本数据所载内容不一致或有不同结论的数据。除非另行说明，本数据（如财务业绩数据等）仅代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。第三条 本数据版权归本公司所有，本公司依法保留各项权利。未经本公司事先书面

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94、claimer:Please read these terms and conditions below carefully and confirm your agreement and acceptance with these termsbefore using SusallWave FIN-ESG Data Service.1.FIN-ESG Data is produced by SusallWave Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.(In short,SusallWave)s assessment based on legal publicly accessib

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101、agreements on our website(e.g.User Registration Protocol of SusallWave Website,User Service(including authentication)Agreement of SusallWave Website,Privacy Policy of Susallwave Website),it should be executed according to other agreements.If there is anydifference between this disclaim and other agr

102、eements,this disclaimer shall be applied.37APPENDIX 2重要免责声明：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告

103、：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities IndiaPrivate Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为印度交易所）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证

104、券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现

105、并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短

106、仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。38A

107、PPENDIX 2IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERFor research reports on non-Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHaitong International Securities Group Limited(“HTISGL”)and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated acti

108、vity(advising on securities)for the purpose ofthe Securities and Futures Ordinance(Cap.571)of Hong Kong,with the assistance of Haitong International(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),a wholly owned subsidiary ofHTISGL and which is regulated as an Investment Adviser by the Kanto Finance Bureau of Japan.For resear

109、ch reports on Indian securities:The research report is issued by Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),an Indian company and a Securities andExchange Board of India(“SEBI”)registered Stock Broker,Merchant Banker and Research Analyst that,inter alia,produces and distributes research repor

110、ts coveringlisted entities on the BSE Limited(“BSE”)and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited(“NSE”)(collectively referred to as“Indian Exchanges”).HSIPL wasacquired and became part of the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”)on 22 December 2016.All the research reports

111、 are globally branded under the name Haitong International and approved for distribution by Haitong International Securities CompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/or any other members within HTISG in their respective jurisdictions.The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compil

112、ed or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but norepresentation or warranty,express or implied,is made by HTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKK or any other members within HTISG from which this research report may bereceived,as to their accuracy,completeness or correctness.All opini

113、ons expressed herein are as of the date of this research report and are subject to change withoutnotice.This research report is for information purpose only.Descriptions of any companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete andthis research report is not,and should no

114、t be construed expressly or impliedly as,an offer to buy or sell securities.The securities referred to in this research reportmay not be eligible for purchase or sale in some jurisdictions.If an investment product is denominated in a currency other than an investors home currency,achange in exchange

115、 rates may adversely affect the investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including thoseinvolving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this researc

116、h report arenot tailor-made for you.The analyst has not taken into account your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to

117、evaluate whether therecommendations suits you before investment.Neither HTISG nor any of its directors,employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of the materials contained in this research report.39APPENDIX 2HTISG and our affiliates

118、,officers,directors,and employees,excluding the analysts responsible for the content of this document,will from time to time have long orshort positions in,act as principal in,and buy or sell,the securities or derivatives,if any,referred to in this research report.Sales,traders,and other professiona

119、ls ofHTISG may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to the relevant clients and the companies within HTISG that reflect opinions that arecontrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.HTISG may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommenda

120、tions or views expressedin this research report.HTI is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading decisions,ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipientof this research report.Please refer to HTIs website for further information on HTIs organizational and adminis

121、trative arrangements set up for the prevention andavoidance of conflicts of interest with respect to Research.Non U.S.Analyst Disclosure:The HTI analyst(s)listed on the cover of this Research is(are)not registered or qualified as a research analyst with FINRA and are notsubject to U.S.FINRA Rule 224

122、1 restrictions on communications with companies that are the subject of the Research;public appearances;and trading securities by aresearch analyst.40APPENDIX 2分发和地区通知：分发和地区通知：除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项：香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTI

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149、APPENDIX 2Peoples Republic of China(PRC):In the PRC,the research report is directed for the sole use of those who receive the research report in accordance with theapplicable PRC laws and regulations.Further,the information on the research report does not constitute production and business activitie

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152、to sell securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buysecurities in any jurisdiction of Canada.Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements tofile a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only b

153、y Haitong International Securities(USA)Inc.,a dealer relying on the“international dealerexemption”under National Instrument 31-103 Registration Requirements,Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations(“NI 31-103”)in Alberta,British Columbia,Ontario and Quebec.This research report is not,and under

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