中资美元债市场研究专题：2022年境内地产债回顾与新阶段展望-230117（17页）.pdf

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1、 Table_yejiao1 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Table_yemei1 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Table_summary(Please see APPENDIX 1 for En

2、glish summary)投资要点投资要点 境内存量地产债下滑，高评级央国企主导市场，境内存量地产债下滑，高评级央国企主导市场，一级市场一级市场新增融资情况改善，新增融资情况改善，同比同比跌幅收窄。跌幅收窄。截至 2022 年底，境内房地产债余额较 2021 年底 1.82 万亿元下降 2.9%至 1.77 万亿元。万得统计 AAA 级发行人余额占比为 77.4%，地方国有企业和央企占比接近 67.7%。2022 年境内地产债新增融资 5387 亿元，较 2021 年下降 18.6%。一级市场新增融资降幅收窄，从 2022 年第一季度同比下滑 35.0%逐步收窄至第四季度的同比下滑 18.6

3、%，融资环境改善。地产债二级市场随信用风险事件大幅走弱，年底政策有力托底债市，销售和融资复苏可期。地产债二级市场随信用风险事件大幅走弱，年底政策有力托底债市，销售和融资复苏可期。2022 年，地产行业风险事件频发，中证地产债收跌 6.1%，中资美元债房地产债指数收跌 28.8%。11 月以来随着政府出台各类政策助力房地产企业恢复融资能力，地产债市场随之反弹。11 月至年底，中证地产债指数上升 1.9%，中资美元房地产债指数上升 59.6%。12 月中央经济工作会议部署对稳定房地产市场预期提供有力支持。地产债投资迈入新阶段，民企地产债投资迈入新阶段，民企和和混改企业基本面有望改善，境内外利差具备

4、进一步收窄空间。混改企业基本面有望改善，境内外利差具备进一步收窄空间。民企多项融资落地，碧桂园和龙湖通过中债增担保发行中期票据募资 10 亿和 20 亿人民币，新城和旭辉等多家房企也在推进发债计划。同期，多家房企通过配售股份募资。民企境内外债券价格反弹趋势明显，但部分主体境内外利差仍阔，境内收益率较境外高出 1000-2000 个基点。混改房企同步受益于“第二支箭”等融资改善计划，万科和绿城中国等融资动作频频，通过发行中期票据、取得境外贷款以及拟发行股票等募资。其他混改背景房企如金茂，境外收益率较境内高 300-500 个基点，远洋境内收益率高出境外 1000-2000 个基点。混改房企融资步

5、伐加快，渠道多样，融资能力及现金流有望持续改善。投资建议投资建议 境内外地产债在反弹后仍具备投资价值，建议关注不同主体基本面改善以及境内外利差机会。境内外地产债在反弹后仍具备投资价值，建议关注不同主体基本面改善以及境内外利差机会。2022 年年末境内外地产债大幅反弹后，2023 年后续地产行业政策托底销售和改善融资环境的方向难改变，地产公司基本面改善和信用修复将延续。建议关注混改企业投资机会，特别是境内外利差较阔的主体，在融资渠道逐渐畅通、资产处置不断落地下，收益率和境内外利差未来仍具备下行的空间。同时，持续跟踪民营房企融资计划的具体落地情况，目前民企主体境内收益率普遍高于境外收益率，利差空间

6、仍较阔。随着融资环境持续改善，一级市场发行重启，二级市场投资者回归，结合改善优质房企资产负债表计划，房企地产债价格上升空间将打开。建议关注标的：碧桂园、新城、旭辉、中骏、远洋；其他可关注标的：合景泰富、宝龙。风险风险 地产行业销售超预期下行，融资落地情况不及预期，国内疫情影响反复。Table_Title 研究报告 Research Report 17 Jan 2023 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 2022 年境内地产债回顾与新阶段展望 Review and Outlook for Onshore Real Estate Bonds Peishan Jiang Steven S

7、ong 17 Jan 2023 2 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 1.境内地产债存量情况境内地产债存量情况 1.1 地产债总量地产债总量下滑，降幅收窄下滑，降幅收窄 境内房地产债余额延续境内房地产债余额延续下降下降趋势，降幅趋势，降幅较较 2021 年年收窄收窄。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，境内房地产债余额约为 1.77 万亿元，较 2021 年底 1.82 万亿元下降 2.9%。余额呈现下降趋势，降幅由 2022 年的 6.4%收窄至 2.9%。境内房地产债余额及增速境内房地产债余额及增速 Source:Wind,HTI 1.2 存量债

8、存量债以高评级发行人为主，央国企融资成本以高评级发行人为主，央国企融资成本具备具备优势优势 境内地产存量债以高评级发行人为主，地方国企和央企占主导境内地产存量债以高评级发行人为主，地方国企和央企占主导。截止 2022 年 12 月 31日，地产存量债余额为 1.77 万亿元，万得统计发行人评级分布中，AAA 级余额占比为77.4%，AA 级占比为 16.7%，A 级及以下占比 5.1%，无评级占比为 0.8%。按发行人公司主体类别统计，地方国有企业余额占比为39.3%，中央国有企业余额占比为28.4%，民营企业占比为 18.1%。地方国企和央企占总余额比例接近 67.7%。发行人评级分布发行人

9、评级分布 发行人公司主体类别分布发行人公司主体类别分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 地产债融资渠道以公司债和中期票据为主，央国企融资成本优势明显地产债融资渠道以公司债和中期票据为主，央国企融资成本优势明显。截止 2022 年12 月 31 日，境内地产债余额按渠道分类，一般公司债余额约 7190 亿元，占比为40.6%；一般中期票据余额约 4834 亿元，占比为 27.3%；ABS 余额为 2672 亿元，占比为 15.1%；私募债余额为 1157 亿元，占比为 6.5%。融资成本方面，地方国企平均票息为 4.1%，中央国企平均票息为 3.6%，民营企业平均

10、票息为 5.8%。TWlWnPtRQYjYrV0ZoY6M9R7NpNoOnPsRiNoOrQjMrQpQbRrQrRvPpNrNuOnPpO 17 Jan 2023 3 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 融资渠道分布融资渠道分布（左轴：亿元，右轴：（左轴：亿元，右轴：占总余额占总余额百分比）百分比）Source:Wind,HTI 各类融资渠道成本各类融资渠道成本 不同不同类型类型发行人主体融资成本发行人主体融资成本 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 2.2022 年境内地产债年境内地产债新发行情况新发行情况 2.1 202

11、2 年地产债年地产债新新融资总量下滑，融资环境融资总量下滑，融资环境呈趋势呈趋势改善改善 2022 年境内地产债年境内地产债新新融资融资总额降幅上升总额降幅上升，按按季度季度看看融资情况呈现改善趋势融资情况呈现改善趋势。截至2022 年 12 月 31 日，2022 年境内地产债新增融资 5387 亿元，较 2021 年总量下滑18.6%。分季度来看，第一季度新增融资 1297 亿元；第二季度新增融资 1465 亿元；第三季度新增融资 1404 亿元；第四季度新增融资 1221 亿元。分季度看融资额同比增速降幅收窄，从第一季度同比下滑 35.0%收窄至第四季度的同比下滑 18.6%。境内地产债

12、境内地产债新新增融资增融资情况情况 Source:Wind,HTI 17 Jan 2023 4 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 2.2 新增地产债融资以央国企为主，融资成本下降新增地产债融资以央国企为主，融资成本下降 新增地产债融资以地方国企和央企为主，民企占比下降新增地产债融资以地方国企和央企为主，民企占比下降，整体融资成本下降，整体融资成本下降。截至2022 年 12 月 31 日，全年境内地产债融资 5286.9 亿元，其中按主体公司类型分类，地方国企占比44.4%，央企占比42.2%。民企融资环境收紧，融资额占总体比例下滑。融资渠道方面仍以一般

13、中期票据（占36.5%）和公司债（占34.9%）为主，超短融占比提升至 10%。融资成本方面，按渠道看公司债、中期票据和 ABS 融资成本接近在 3.4%左右；按公司类型看地方国企和央企的融资成本在3.2%到3.5%。整体融资成本下降。新发主体公司类型分布新发主体公司类型分布 新发渠道分布新发渠道分布 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 新发各渠道融资成本新发各渠道融资成本 新发各主体公司类型融资成本新发各主体公司类型融资成本 Source:Wind,HTI Source:Wind,HTI 3.二级市场二级市场触底反弹，地产债迈入投资新阶段触底反弹，地产债迈入投资新

14、阶段 3.1 二级市场二级市场随信用风险事件走弱随信用风险事件走弱，年底年底政策政策修复修复市场信心市场信心 地产债随行业地产债随行业风险事件频发风险事件频发大幅走弱大幅走弱，年底政策有力托底债市，年底政策有力托底债市。2022年全年，地产行业风险事件频发，展期违约潮不断。中证地产债收跌 6.1%，中资美元债房地产债指数收跌 28.8%。地产债市场底部出现在 11月，11月以来随着政府着力于出台各类政策恢复房地产企业融资能力，从交易商协会推进第二轮增信发债、“第二支箭”扩容支持民企债券融资、央行和银保监会的“16 条”助力地产融资、证监会表态支持房地产企业合理融资到多家优质房企获银行新增授信和

15、合作。更多金融机构加入到对房企的融资支持，合作模式增多与意向规模加大。房地产债市场随之反弹，11 月至年底，中证地产债指数上升 1.9%，中资美元房地产债指数上升 59.6%。17 Jan 2023 5 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 境内外境内外地产债指数走势地产债指数走势 Source:Wind,HTI 3.2 2022 年底年底至今至今行业支持政策不断出台，销售融资有望复苏行业支持政策不断出台，销售融资有望复苏 深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署深入贯彻中央经济工作会议部署，行业行业政策支持政策支持不断不断，销售，销售融资融资有望有望复苏复苏。2022

16、年前11 月，中国商品房销售累计额 11.9 万亿元，累计同比下滑 23.3%。房地产开发投资额累计 12.4 万亿元，累计同比下滑 9.8%。销售及投资增速降幅均扩大。12 月以来，中央经济工作会议强调有效防范化解重大经济金融风险，要确保房地产市场平稳发展，扎实做好保交楼、保民生、保稳定各项工作，满足行业合理融资需求，有效防范化解优质头部房企风险，改善资产负债状况。随后，政府高层不断对房地产行业表示重视与支持，多部门欲合力促进房地产销售、支持优质房企融资需求并稳定市场预期。商品房累计销售商品房累计销售额及增速额及增速 房地产开发投资完成额房地产开发投资完成额 Source:Wind,HTI

17、Source:Wind,HTI 2022 年年 12 月以来月以来主要地产政策梳理主要地产政策梳理 Source:Wind,HTI 17 Jan 2023 6 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 3.3 民企融资环境民企融资环境将延续将延续改善，改善，地产债投资迈入新阶段，地产债投资迈入新阶段，关注关注利差为先利差为先 民企融资环境改善，民企融资环境改善，多项融资落地，多项融资落地，把握把握民企民企境内外境内外地产债地产债利差机会利差机会。2022 年 11 月以来民企持续通过多渠道融资。其中碧桂园和龙湖已经通过中债增担保发行中期票据募资 10 亿和 20

18、 亿人民币，新城和旭辉等多家房企也在推进发债计划。同时，多家房企通过配股募资，碧桂园募资 47.41 亿港元、新城募资 19.43 亿港元、旭辉募资 9.46亿港元等。民企境内外债券价格反弹趋势明显，但部分主体境内外利差仍阔，像碧桂园、新城和旭辉等，境内收益率较境外高出 1000-2000 个基点，利差具备收窄空间。以下为部分头部民企房地产公司短期境内外债券到期情况和境内外利差空间：碧桂园：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 273 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 3季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模 21.7 亿美元，主要集中于 2024 年年初。短期境外债收益率较高，利差

19、约413个基点，1-2年期境内债收益率较高，利差约419个基点。碧桂园碧桂园境内境内外外债债 2 年年内内到期到期分布（亿）分布（亿）碧桂园碧桂园境内外债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 龙湖：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 302.4 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 3季度和 2024 年 1 季度。境外美元债 2 年内无到期。境内债收益率高于境外债，3 年期以内利差约 454 个基点。龙湖龙湖境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）龙湖龙湖境内外债券收益率及

20、利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 新城：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 102.4 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 2-3 季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模 9 亿美元，主要集中于 2023 年 2-3 季度。境内短债收益率较高于境外债，1 年期以内利差约 783 个基点，1-2 年期利约为-353 个基点。17 Jan 2023 7 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 新城新城境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）新城新城境内外

21、债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 旭辉：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 131.6 亿人民币，分布在 2023 年 2 季度到 2024 年 3 季度较平均。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模 16.5 亿美元，主要集中于 2023年 1 季度和 2024 年 1 季度，短期压力较大。境内外债券收益率整体较高，境内短债收益率较境外高 1296 个基点，1-2 年期债券境外较境内高 4197 个基点。旭辉旭辉境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）旭辉旭辉境内外债券收益率

22、及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 混改房企混改房企融资步伐加快，渠道多样，融资步伐加快，渠道多样，部分部分房企房企境内外境内外利差可观利差可观。混改房企同步受益于“第二支箭”等融资改善计划，万科和绿城等融资动作频频。万科完成发行 20 亿中期票据同时拟进行境外增发股份，绿城完成发行 15 亿中期票据同时获得 1.2 亿美元境外贷款。万科和绿城境内外债券利差收窄明显。其他混改背景房企如金茂、远洋等，仍具备境内外利差收窄的空间，金茂境外收益率较境内高 300-500 个基点，远洋境内收益率高出境外 1000-20

23、00 个基点。金茂于 12 月发行 23 亿人民币 CMBS 并与于 2023 年 1月 4 日赎回 5 亿美元永续债，远洋 12 月发行 13 亿 REITs 产品及以 55.5 亿元出售商业物业。混改房企融资能力持续验证，有力提升市场对其偿债能力与意愿的信心。以下为部分头部混改背景房地产公司短期境内外债券到期情况和境内外利差空间：万科：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 330.1 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 2季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模 26.4 亿美元，主要集中于 2023 年 2 季度。境外债券收益率较高，收益率较境内高 200-240 个基点，收益率曲

24、线较平，利差较窄。17 Jan 2023 8 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 万科万科境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）万科万科境内外债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 绿城：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 250.9 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 1-2 季度和 2024 年 1 季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模仅 1.5 亿美元在 2024 年末。境内外利差较窄，利差在-72 到 150 个基点。绿城绿城境

25、内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）绿城绿城境内外债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 金茂：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 142.2 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年1、3 季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期或行权规模 9.5 亿美元，主要在 2023 年 4 季度。境内收益率较境外低，利差在 300 到 500 个基点。金茂金茂境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）金茂金茂境内外债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Source:Wind,

26、DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 远洋：公司 2023 至 2024 年到期境内债规模约 226.9 亿人民币，主要集中于 2023 年 3季度和 2024 年 1 季度。境外美元债 2 年内到期规模 7 亿美元，主要在 2024 年 3 季度。境内收益率较高，1-2 年期利差约 1187 个基点，2-3 年期利差约为 1966 个基点。17 Jan 2023 9 Table_header1 中资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 远洋远洋境内外债境内外债 2 年内到期分布（亿）年内到期分布（亿）远洋远洋境内外债券收益率及利差境内外债券收益率及利差 Sou

27、rce:Wind,DM,HTI Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI 4.投资建议投资建议 境内外地产债在反弹后仍具备投资价值，境内外地产债在反弹后仍具备投资价值，建议建议关注关注各各类型类型主体主体境内外利差机会境内外利差机会。在2022 年底境内外地产债大幅反弹后，2023 年后续地产行业政策托底销售和改善融资环境的方向难改变，地产公司基本面和信用修复将继续进行。建议关注混改背景企业投资机会，特别是境内外利差较阔的主体，在融资渠道逐渐畅通、资产处置不断落地下，收益率和境内外利差未来仍具备收窄的空间。同时，建议持续跟踪民营房企融资计划的具体落地情况，目前来看民企主体境内收益率普

28、遍高于境外收益率，利差空间仍较阔。随着融资环境持续改善，一级市场发行重启，二级市场投资者回归，结合改善优质房企资产负债表计划，房企地产债价格上升空间将打开。建议关注标的：碧桂园、新城、旭辉、中骏、远洋；其他可关注标的：合景泰富、宝龙。建议建议关注地产债发行人关注地产债发行人短债短债收益率收益率及境内外利差及境内外利差 Source:Wind,Bloomberg,HTI.注：远洋集团（不含远洋资本）1 年内无到期美元债，采用 2 年期内美元债到期规模及收益率 5.风险风险 地产行业销售超预期下行，融资落地情况不及预期，国内疫情影响反复。17 Jan 2023 10 Table_header2 中

29、资美元债市场研究专题中资美元债市场研究专题 APPENDIX 1 Summary Onshore stock of real estate bonds fell,high rating central state-owned enterprises dominated the market,new issued amount improved with the decline rate narrowed.By the end of 2022,the balance of domestic real estate bonds had decreased by 2.9%from 1.82 tril

30、lion yuan at the end of 2021 to 1.77 trillion yuan,narrowing the annual decline rate narrowed.From Winds data,AAA issuers accounted for 77.4%of the balance,local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises accounted for nearly 67.7%.In 2022,the new issue amount of domestic real estate bonds was

31、538.7 billion yuan,down 18.6 percent from 2021.The decline in new issue amount were narrowing,from a 35.0%year-on-year decline in 1Q2022 to an 18.6%year-on-year decline in the 4Q2022.Real estate bond secondary market significantly weakened with credit events happening,Year-end policies strongly supp

32、ort the bond market,sales and financing recovery can be expected.In 2022,there were frequent risk events in the real estate industry.China Securities real estate bonds declined by 6.1%,and China USD real estate bond index dropped by 28.8%.Since November,as the government introduced various policies

33、to restore the financing ability of real estate enterprises,the real estate bond market rebounded accordingly.From November to the end of 2022,the China Securities real estate bond index rose by 1.9%,and the Chinese-dollar real estate bond index bounced by 59.6%.In December,the Central Economic Work

34、ing Conference deployed tasks to stabilize the real estate market expectations and provide strong support to the market.Real estate bond investment had entered a new stage,and the fundamentals of private enterprises and mixed-structure enterprises were expected to improve,with further narrowing of d

35、omestic and foreign interest rate spreads.Private enterprises landed several financing projects.Country Garden and Longfor raised 1 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan through medium-term notes secured by China Bond Insurance Corporation,while several other names,including Future Land and CIFI,were also

36、 pushing ahead with plans.Meanwhile,many enterprises raised capital though issuing new shares.Onshore and offshore bond prices of private enterprises rebounded significantly,but the spread between onshore and offshore was still wide for some names,with domestic yield 1,000-2,000 basis points higher

37、than overseas.Mixed-structured enterprises benefited from the Second Arrow and other financing improvement plans.Vanke and Greentown China took frequent financing actions,such as issuing medium-term notes,obtaining overseas loans and planning to issue shares.Other housing enterprises with mixed stru

38、cture background,such as Jinmao,had a higher overseas return rate of 300-500 basis points than domestic.Sino-Ocean had a higher domestic return rate of 1000-2000 basis points than overseas.The pace of financing for housing enterprises with mixed-structure background was accelerating with various fin

39、ancing channels.Their financing ability and cash flow status were expected to improve further.Onshore and offshore real estate bonds still had investment value after the rebound,it was suggested to pay attention to the improvement of different names fundamentals and their onshore and offshore intere

40、st rate spread opportunities.After the onshore and offshore real estate bonds rebounded sharply at the end of 2022,it would be difficult to change the direction of real estate industry policy support on sales and financing in 2023,and the fundamentals and credit improvement of real estate companies

41、would continue.It was suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mixed-reform enterprises,especially the subjects with wider onshore and offshore interest rate spreads.With increasing financing channels and continuous landing of assets disposal,the yield rate,onshore and offshore

42、interest rate spread still had room to narrow in the future.Meanwhile,continue to track the landing of the financing plans of private housing enterprises.At present,onshore returns of private enterprises were generally higher than offshore returns,with the spread still being wide.With the continuous

43、 improvement of the financing environment,the restart of primary market issuance,the return of secondary market investors,combining with the plan to improve the balance sheet of high-quality real estate enterprises,real estate bond prices will have more space to rise.Top picks:Country Garden,Future

44、Land,CIFI,SCE,Sino-Ocean;Other targets to watch:KWG,Powerlong.Risks:Property sales declined over expectations,new financing landed below expectations,the impact of the domestic epidemic was repeating.11 Table_APPENDIX Table_disclaimer 附录附录APPENDIX 重要信息披露重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Ha

45、itong Securities India Private Limited(HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International,a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haito

46、ng International Research Limited(“HTIRL”),Haitong Securities India Private Limited(“HSIPL”),Haitong International Japan K.K.(“HTIJKK”),Haitong International Securities Company Limited(“HTISCL”),and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies(“HTISG”),each author

47、ized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证分析师认证Analyst Certification:我，Peishan Jiang，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,Peishan Jiang,certify that(i)the views

48、expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this resea

49、rch report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.我，Steven Song，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。I,S

50、teven Song,certify that(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and(ii)no part of my compensation was,is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendati

51、ons or views expressed in this research report;and that I(including members of my household)have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed.利益冲突披露利益冲突披露Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事

52、项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至 ERD-D）HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and/or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report.As far as this research report is concerned,the following are the disclos

53、ure matters related to such relationship(As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness,please send an email to ERD-D if timely and comprehensive information is needed).海通证券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（统称“海通”）在过去12个月内参与了601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK and 1238.HK的投资银行项目。投资银行项目包括：

54、1、海通担任上市前辅导机构、保荐人或主承销商的首次公开发行项目；2、海通作为保荐人、主承销商或财务顾问的股权或债务再融资项目；3、海通作为主经纪商的新三板上市、目标配售和并购项目。Haitong Securities Co.,Ltd.and/or its subsidiaries(collectively,the Haitong)have a role in investment banking projects of 601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK and 1238.HK within the past 12 months.The inve

55、stment banking projects include 1.IPO projects in which Haitong acted as pre-listing tutor,sponsor,or lead-underwriter;2.equity or debt refinancing projects of 601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK and 1238.HK for which Haitong acted as sponsor,lead-underwriter or financial advisor;3.listing by

56、introduction in the new three board,target placement,M&A projects in which Haitong acted as lead-brokerage firm.601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK 及 1238.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的投资银行业务客户。601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK and 1238.HK are/were an investment bank clients of Haitong currently or

57、within the past 12 months.601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK 及 3377.HK目前或过去12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK and 3377.HK are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months.The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services.海通在过去12个

58、月中获得对601155.CH,1030.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK 及 1238.HK提供投资银行服务的报酬。Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 601155.CH,1030.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK and 1238.HK.海通预计将（或者有意向）在未来三个月内从601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK,1238.HK,2202.HK 及 000002.CH获得投资银行服务报

59、酬。Haitong expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from 601155.CH,1030.HK,0884.HK,3377.HK,1813.HK,1238.HK,2202.HK and 000002.CH.海通在过去的12个月中从601155.CH获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for pro

60、ducts or services other than investment banking from 601155.CH.12 评级定义评级定义（从（从2020年年7月月1日开始执行）日开始执行）：海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级分析师股票评级 优于大市优于大市，未来12-18个月

61、内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100,美国 SP500;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.Ratings Definitions(from 1 Jul 2020):Haitong International uses a relative rating

62、system using Outperform,Neutral,or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors.Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research.In addition,since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the a

63、nalysts views,investors should carefully read Haitong International Research,in its entirety,and not infer the contents from the rating alone.In any case,ratings(or research)should not be used or relied upon as investment advice.An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individua

64、l circumstances(such as the investors existing holdings)and other considerations.Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Neutral:The stocks total return over the nex

65、t 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.Underperform:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expect

66、ed to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100,US SP500;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.评级分布评级分布Rating Distribution 截至截至2022年年12月月31日海通国际股票研究

67、评级分布日海通国际股票研究评级分布 优于大市优于大市 中性中性 弱于大市弱于大市 (持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4%9.2%1.5%投资银行客户*5.2%7.3%8.3%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年年6月月30日）：日）：买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基

68、准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本 TOPIX,韩国 KOSPI,台湾 TAIEX,印度 Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股 MSCI China.13 Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution,as of Dec 31,2022 Outperform Neutral Underperform (hold)HTI Equity Research Cove

69、rage 89.4%9.2%1.5%IB clients*5.2%7.3%8.3%*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.BUY,Neutral,and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform,Neutral,and Underperform.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral ra

70、ting falls into a hold rating category.Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.Previous rating system definitions(until 30 Jun 2020):BUY:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchma

71、rk,as indicated below.NEUTRAL:The stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules,our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category.SELL:Th

72、e stocks total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below.Benchmarks for each stocks listed region are as follows:Japan TOPIX,Korea KOSPI,Taiwan TAIEX,India Nifty100;for all other China-concept stocks MSCI China.海通国际

73、非评级研究：海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。Haitong International Non-Rated Research:Haitong International publishes quantitative,screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may s

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77、优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券 A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。Haitong International Quality 100 A-share(Q100)Index:HTIs Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at HS in Shanghai.These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-ba

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94、r shall be applied.重要免责声明：重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK”）的协助下发行，HTIJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities

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98、ISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。请访问海通国际网站 ，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research re

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107、 investment.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Certain transactions,including those involving derivatives,give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.You should also bear in mind that recommendations in this research report are not tailor-made f

108、or you.The analyst has not taken into account 15 your unique financial circumstances,such as your financial situation and risk appetite.You must,therefore,analyze and should,where applicable,consult your own legal,tax,accounting,financial and other professional advisers to evaluate whether the recom

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