讨论“收益率曲线上的货币政策：央行为何能够影响长期实际利率？”.pdf

1、Sagiri KitaoNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies(GRIPS)June 2025Bank of Korea International ConferenceDiscussion of“Monetary policy along the yield curve:Why can central banks affect long-term real rates?”By Beaudry,Cavallino,and WillemsOverviewConventional view about long-term real intere

2、st ratesStandard NK model:persistent deviations of from generate large effects on output and inflation,effectively constraining monetary policyHowever,empirical evidence showsLong-term rates respond to monetary policy announcementsMuch of the post-1980 decline in long-term rates occurred around poli

3、cy eventsKey questionsCan monetary policy affect long-term real rates in the absence of inflation/output responses?And how?This paperYes!Offers a structural explanation,without relying on information asymmetryLifeLife-CycleCycle in Monetary Transmission MechanismContributionsDevelops a tractable Fin

4、itely-Lived Agent New Keynesian(FLANK)model,incorporating life-cycle saving behavior of householdsShows that persistent MP changes can affect long-term rates without large effects on output and inflationKey innovationsIntroduces retirement saving motives into MTMAsset demand effect:retirement income

5、 more saving and lower consumptionNet impact depends on the strength of(1)standard NK intertemporal substitution,(2)asset valuation effects,vs(3)asset demand effectUnder certain calibration,these effects offset each other,resulting in little impact on output and inflation when there is persistent ch

6、ange in FLANK model:Life-Cycle ElementsA life-cycle model populated by workers and retirees with stochastic aging and death Workers retire w.p.1and retirees die w.p.2Retiree earn income from on savingsHousehold wealth consists of short-and long-term bonds Long-term bonds with exogenous durations:per