瑞信银行(Credit Suisse):亚太地区-中国电子元件报告-PCB领头羊在5G和数据通信周期中崛起(英文版)(62页).pdf

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瑞信银行(Credit Suisse):亚太地区-中国电子元件报告-PCB领头羊在5G和数据通信周期中崛起(英文版)(62页).pdf

1、 China Components Sector PCB leaders rise on 5G and Datacom cycle Electronic Components Source: Company data, IBES estimates for not covered companies, Credit Suisse estimates for covered stocks. Yufeng Shen of Credit Suisse Founder Securities Limited (CSFS) provided administrative and other support

2、 in the preparation of this research report that do not require a licence. CSFS is a Sino-Foreign joint venture between Founder Securities Co., Ltd. and Credit Suisse AG. CSFS is not licensed to provide investment advisory service by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in the Peoples Republic

3、 of China. P/B(x)ROE(%)Div yld 20E21E22E19-22E20E21E22E21E21E21E PCB (Printed Circuit Board) SCC002916.SZN12.5194.6184.056%33.025.910.022.651.240.737.011.431.1%0.8% Avary Holding002938.SZNC17.0-51.54n/a11.224.020.118.336.629.524.64.715.9%1.0% Wus 002463.SZNC6.6-26.89n/a29.224.319.624.329.824.020.16.

4、025.1%1.1% Dongshan Precision 002384.SZNC7.3-31.72n/a124.328.616.849.932.325.221.54.417.6%0.8% Kinwong603228.SSNC4.7-38.27n/a31.526.222.326.629.523.419.24.318.5%1.3% Fastprint002436.SZNC3.3-15.61n/a28.936.932.532.861.744.933.96.915.4%n/a Victory Giant300476.SZNC2.8-25.52n/a26.131.339.732.234.026.018

5、.64.617.6%1.4% Suntak 002815.SZNC3.0-23.99n/a42.931.4-6.020.828.221.518.06.530.1%1.3% Average - A-share40.928.619.428.437.929.424.16.121.4%1.1% TTMTTMI.ONC1.2-11.67n/a-38.478.623.710.816.79.98.00.87.8%n/a Unimicron3037.TWN2.648.052.20-8%37.715.2n/an/a17.515.2n/a1.510.4%3.3% Tripod3044.TWN2.1105.0116

6、.50-10%-9.016.7n/an/a11.19.6n/a1.516.8%6.6% NYPCB8046.TWN1.760.079.00-24%462.4-3.4n/an/a29.430.5n/a1.65.4%1.3% Zhen Ding Tech4958.TWNC3.7-135.00n/a6.116.62.18.113.411.411.01.412.4%3.9% Compeq2313.TWNC1.8-45.50n/a28.018.518.421.511.19.47.91.617.5%4.1% ISU007660.KSNC0.1-4,025.00n/a-107.2213.615.9n/a19

7、.78.06.91.721.1%2.2% Daeduck008060.KSNC0.1-6,300.00n/a-6.132.34.69.12.82.12.20.27.3%13.0% Average - offshore46.748.513.012.415.212.07.21.312.3%4.9% CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) SY Tech600183.SSO10.948.133.4044%34.128.923.228.639.430.624.85.919.9%2.1% Wazam603186.SSNC1.1-52.00n/a29.276.540.347.450.828.

8、920.64.214.5%1.2% Goworld000823.SZNC1.1-14.71n/a22.523.6n/an/a21.317.3n/a1.58.5%1.8% Chaohua002288.SZNC0.8-6.05n/a624.235.8n/an/a42.031.0n/a3.09.6%0.2% Average - A-share177.541.231.838.038.427.022.73.613.1%1.3% RogersROG.NNC2.4-127.39n/a-32.233.5n/an/a31.722.4n/a2.19.2%n/a Nanya Plastics1303.TWNC17.

9、1-63.50n/a-4.829.85.99.423.518.316.21.47.6%4.3% EMC2383.TWNC1.7-160.00n/a9.714.67.910.714.512.711.63.124.6%4.4% Iteq6213.TWNC1.6-144.50n/a28.828.815.224.115.311.810.23.227.0%5.7% Doosan336370.KSNC0.9-34,000.00n/a75.694.030.064.242.621.917.76.228.5%0.0% Average - offshore15.440.114.827.125.517.413.93

10、.219.4%3.6% Po. up/down NI growth (%)P/E(x) CompanyTickerRating Mkt cap US$ bn TP (lc) Current price (lc) 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 5 Table of contents Focus charts and tables 2 PCB leaders rise on 5G and Datacom cycle 3 Valuation tables 4 Beneficiary of the 5G upcycle 7 Sizeable demand f

11、or BTS and network equipment . 7 PCB content in unit device increases . 10 One of the biggest winners among telecom PCB . 13 Chinese PCB companies to gain share 13 Growing with top telecom customers 14 Penetration of mmWave radar drives demand for high-frequency CCL . 17 Expanding demand in Datacom

12、20 Domestic substitution another key driver 23 Potential explosion in IC substrates . 23 Low localisation against large demand 23 Shennan: Hidden champion of domestic substitution 24 Domestic substitution of high-end CCL . 25 Mismatched industry structure 26 Shengyi: Leader of domestic players 28 In

13、itiate coverage on Shennan and Shengyi 30 Revenue/earnings growth driven by capacity release and mix improvement . 30 Shengyi: 20% revenue CAGR, GM expansion, 28% NI CAGR 30 Shennan: 25% revenue CAGR, GM stable, 24% NI CAGR 32 China PCB/CCL sector rerate driven by 5G/data . 34 We rate Shengyi OUTPER

14、FORM and Shennan NEUTRAL . 36 Key investment risks . 37 HOLT view on China PCB Sector 38 CFROI acceleration in Chinese PCB sector set to continue . 38 CFROI growth for SCC and SY Tech among the largest . 38 Shengyi: HOLT warranted price of Rmb47.43 based on our estimates . 39 Shennan: HOLT warranted

15、 price of Rmb106.86 based on our estimates . 40 Shengyi Technology 42 Appendix 44 High barriers in high frequency high speed CCL 44 High customer barrier in telecom, datacom and automotive 45 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 6 Key company milestones 47 Management Bio 48 Majority shareholders 49

16、Financing projects 49 Shennan Circuits 50 Appendix 52 Business layout 52 Capacity layout 53 Key company milestones 55 Management profiles 56 Majority shareholders 57 Financing projects 57 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 7 Beneficiary of the 5G upcycle This report focuses on key Chinese Printed

17、Circuit Board (PCB) supply chain players. Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) is the core material of PCB. With glass fibre or wood pulp paper as the reinforcing material, a CCL is a type of product through lamination with copper clad on either one side or both sides of the reinforcing material after being s

18、oaked in resin. PCBs are made through processing on CCLs including etching and lamination. Components are generally soldered onto the PCB to both electrically connect and mechanically fasten them to it, which we call the PCB Assembly (PCBA). They form the backbone of all major electronic components,

19、 widely used in telecom infrastructure, server we see further ASP improvement with increasing penetration rate of high-frequency. Assuming each BTS consists of three AAUs, the PCB content in 5G AAU will reach Rmb9,600 per BTS, almost 6x that of 4G, indicating AAU is the most flexible value point for

20、 PCB in 5G. Here we ignore some situations where the antenna and RRU are not integrated into AAU, and BTS covers six sectors, which does not make a great difference to PCB demand due to low popularity. Figure 21: PCB content in 5G AAU almost 6x vs in 4G CCL Layer Area per AAU (m2) ASP (Rmb/m2) Value

21、 per BTS (area*ASP*3) 5G AAU Power division board High- frequency 2L+4L or 6L 0.32 4,000 3,840 TRX board FR4 + high- frequency 12-16L 0.32 6,000 5,760 Total 0.64 5,000 9,600 4G RRU RRU board FR4 + High- frequency 12-16L 0.14 4,000 1,680 Source: Credit Suisse estimates The PCB consumption in DU/CU is

22、 almost equal to BBU in 4G. In each DU/CU, there are four line-cards, including one board for main processing WUS, Boardtek, Gold Circuit and HannStar Board in Taiwan, ISU and Daeduck in South Korea; TTM, Multek (acquired by Dongshan Precision in China) and Sanmina in the US. Among these, Shennan, W

23、US, TTM, ISU, Sanmina and Gold Circuit belong to the first-class players who serve as core suppliers offering high-end products above 16L, while other small names mainly served as back-up capacity. 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 14 Figure 27: Chinese PCB names GM outperforms foreign peers Figu

24、re 28: Foreign PCB names in poor operations Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service, Credit Suisse Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service, Credit Suisse The promising demand driven by 5G is positive for all the existing suppliers, while we believe Chinese companies will outperform to gain

25、 market share. In line with the capacity shifting trend of the whole PCB industry, most of the above names have built capacity in China for lower cost of labour, logistics and infrastructure. However, similar to the situation in other manufacturing industries, even with capacity located in the same

26、places, Chinese companies do a better job than international players in cost control and execution, reflected by higher GM and NM. Supported by a decent profitability, Chinese names are expanding capacity to win more market share from international players. The intensified trade dispute raises deman

27、d for domestic substitution, which further impacted the customers preference on suppliers. For foreign players, we expect them to accelerate relocation of focus due to the unfavourable position in new-gen products. Growing with top telecom customers As a local PCB company in China, Shennan has benef

28、ited from its customer structure and gained market share from the growth of Chinese telecom equipment vendors. It is supplying to all the major telecom equipment vendors worldwide. Among them, it is a tier 1 supplier to Huawei and ZTE, tier 2 supplier to Ericsson and Nokia (sell through Foxconn and

29、Flextronics), and engages in Samsungs overseas business through agents. In terms of share allocation, it is the largest supplier in Huawei and ZTE, while a second or even smaller supplier to other customers. .Figure 29: Major PCB suppliers of telecom equipment vendors Equipment names Major PCB suppl

30、ier Huawei SCC , Wus, Shengyi, Founder ZTE SCC , Suntak, Shengyi, Founder Ericsson TTM, Multek, SCC , Sanmina, Elec Kinwong is sending samples of high-frequency boards to Huawei and ZTE; Suntak has become the second-largest supplier of ZTE. Among the new entrants, Multek was acquired by Dongshan Pre

31、cision from Flextronics in 2019, committed to telecom, whose major customers are currently Ericsson and Nokia. Kinwong and Suntaks downstream applications are diversified, and did not highlight telecom until recent years. We expect the new entry players to focus on 4G products and low-layer products

32、 in the short term, which will intensify the competition of low-end products, especially in ZTE. However, the leadership of Shennan, Wus and Shengyi in high-end products remains intact. .Figure 33: Telecom-related capacity of Huawei and ZTEs PCB suppliers Name Production site Capacity (k m2/year) Cu

33、stomer relationship SCC Shenzhen 1,000 Long-term supply to Huawei and ZTE Wuxi 600 Nantong Phase 1 450 (partly for telecom) Nantong Phase 2 600 (partly for telecom) Wus Qingsong, Kunshan 1,600 Long-term supply to Huawei Huangshi Phase 1 900 Shengyi Nantong 1,500 Long-term supply to Huawei and ZTE Su

34、ntak Shenzhen 720 Started high multi-layer in recent years Jiangmen Phase 2 820 Kinwong Zhuhai 1,200 Started high multi-layer in recent years Multek Zhuhai 750 Acquired by Dongshan Precision in 2019; currently mainly supply to Ericsson and Nokia Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Shennan is the lea

35、der in the telecom field in China, supported by (1) the longest relationship with the top customers; (2) the largest revenue from telecom; (3) the largest capacity dedicated in telecom; (4) the widest product range covering every sector of telecom; (5) leading technology and (6) comprehensive soluti

36、on with assembly service. Shennans products have covered every sector of the telecom network, including wireless network, transmission network, data communication and fixed-line broadband. Especially, it was the leader in TRX board, which was the most value-incremental sector in 5G. Figure 34: Shenn

37、an s products covered the whole range of telecom sectors Telecom sector Equipment Related PCB products Characteristics Wireless network BTS Backplane, high-speed multilayer, high- frequency microwave, multi-function metal base Metal-base, large-size, high-multilayer, high-frequency material, mingled

38、 Transmission network OTN equipment, microwave transmission equipment Backplane, high-speed multilayer, high- frequency microwave High-speed, large-size, high-multilayer, high-density, multi types of back drilling, rigid-flex combined, high- frequency material, mingled Data communication Router, swi

39、tch, server, storage device Backplane, high-speed multilayer High-speed, large-size, high-multilayer, high-density, multi types of back drilling, rigid-flex combined Fixed-line broadband OLT, ONU and other FTTH equipment Backplane, high-speed multilayer Multilayer, rigid-flex combined Source: Compan

40、y data, Credit Suisse As mentioned above, Shennan is one of the few companies capable of mass production of high-multilayer PCB. It is able to produce 68L board for mass and 100L for sample. Besides, its technology capability in board thickness, width/space, registration, drill hole diameter and siz

41、e are all in the leading position across the industry. It has an abundant experience in dealing with high-frequency and high-speed material, which will help in new-generation telecom applications. 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 17 Different from other PCB makers, Shennan offers a one-stop solu

42、tion by providing PCBA service, including surface mounting technology (SMT), dual in-line package (DIP) ,and assembly and testing, which help increase customers stickiness. We see Shennans leading position intact in 5G, and it is sure to gain share from international competitors. For its main capaci

43、ty for telecom in Longgang and Wuxi, we estimate a total revenue of Rmb6.78 bn/7.67 bn/7.86 bn/8.04 bn in 2019-2022E, implying a CAGR of 12%. ASP will still see growth in 2020 driven by 5G penetration, but the improvement will slow down in 2021 and begin to decline in 2022 due to continuous price cu

44、ts. Shengyi Electronics (SYE), a subsidiary of Shengyi Technology committed to PCB, is expected to IPO on Shanghai STAR Board this year. Shengyi Electronics is one of the three core PCB suppliers of Huawei, with a long history in telecom and datacom. In 2019, telecom equipment, network equipment and

45、 server contributed 89.3% of its revenue. By customer, 65% of its revenue came from Huaweis, Samsungs and ZTEs telecom equipment and network equipment. Its ASP reached Rmb3,903 in 2019, close to Shengyis and Wuss communication products, and will further improve to Rmb5,500 for its IPO project. We be

46、lieve it is a competitive company against Shengyi and Wus, and the IPO will accelerate its expansion. Figure 35: SYEs FY19 revenue breakdown by application Figure 36: SYEs FY19 revenue breakdown by customer Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Penetration of mmWave radar drives demand for high- frequency CCL According to Prismark, automotive is one of fastest growing segments, delivering a CAGR of 5.6% in 2018-23. The key drivers of this segment are the increased incorporation of advanced safety, c

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