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1、 China Components Sector PCB leaders rise on 5G and Datacom cycle Electronic Components Source: Company data, IBES estimates for not covered companies, Credit Suisse estimates for covered stocks. Yufeng Shen of Credit Suisse Founder Securities Limited (CSFS) provided administrative and other support
2、 in the preparation of this research report that do not require a licence. CSFS is a Sino-Foreign joint venture between Founder Securities Co., Ltd. and Credit Suisse AG. CSFS is not licensed to provide investment advisory service by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in the Peoples Republic
3、 of China. P/B(x)ROE(%)Div yld 20E21E22E19-22E20E21E22E21E21E21E PCB (Printed Circuit Board) SCC002916.SZN12.5194.6184.056%33.025.910.022.651.240.737.011.431.1%0.8% Avary Holding002938.SZNC17.0-51.54n/a11.224.020.118.336.629.524.64.715.9%1.0% Wus 002463.SZNC6.6-26.89n/a29.224.319.624.329.824.020.16.
4、025.1%1.1% Dongshan Precision 002384.SZNC7.3-31.72n/a124.328.616.849.932.3184.108.40.2067.6%0.8% Kinwong603228.SSNC4.7-38.27n/a31.526.222.326.629.523.419.24.318.5%1.3% Fastprint002436.SZNC3.3-15.61n/a28.936.932.532.861.744.933.96.915.4%n/a Victory Giant300476.SZNC2.8-25.52n/a26.131.339.732.234.026.018
5、.64.617.6%1.4% Suntak 002815.SZNC3.0-23.99n/a42.931.4-6.020.828.221.518.06.530.1%1.3% Average - A-share40.928.619.428.437.929.4220.127.116.11%1.1% TTMTTMI.ONC1.2-11.67n/a-38.478.623.710.816.79.98.00.87.8%n/a Unimicron3037.TWN2.648.052.20-8%37.715.2n/an/a17.515.2n/a1.510.4%3.3% Tripod3044.TWN2.1105.0116
6、.50-10%-9.016.7n/an/a11.19.6n/a1.516.8%6.6% NYPCB8046.TWN1.760.079.00-24%462.4-3.4n/an/a29.430.5n/a1.65.4%1.3% Zhen Ding Tech4958.TWNC3.7-135.00n/a18.104.22.168.113.411.411.01.412.4%3.9% Compeq2313.TWNC1.8-45.50n/a28.018.518.421.522.214.171.124.617.5%4.1% ISU007660.KSNC0.1-4,025.00n/a-107.2213.615.9n/a19
7、.78.06.91.721.1%2.2% Daeduck008060.KSNC0.1-6,300.00n/a-126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.27.3%13.0% Average - offshore46.748.513.012.415.212.07.21.312.3%4.9% CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) SY Tech600183.SSO10.948.133.4044%34.128.923.228.639.430.624.85.919.9%2.1% Wazam603186.SSNC1.1-52.00n/a29.276.540.347.450.828.
8、9184.108.40.206%1.2% Goworld000823.SZNC1.1-14.71n/a22.523.6n/an/a21.317.3n/a1.58.5%1.8% Chaohua002288.SZNC0.8-6.05n/a624.235.8n/an/a42.031.0n/a3.09.6%0.2% Average - A-share177.541.231.838.038.427.022.73.613.1%1.3% RogersROG.NNC2.4-127.39n/a-32.233.5n/an/a31.722.4n/a2.19.2%n/a Nanya Plastics1303.TWNC17.
9、1-63.50n/a-4.8220.127.116.113.518.318.104.22.168%4.3% EMC2383.TWNC1.7-160.00n/a9.714.67.910.714.512.722.214.171.124%4.4% Iteq6213.TWNC1.6-144.50n/a28.828.8126.96.36.1991.810.23.227.0%5.7% Doosan336370.KSNC0.9-34,000.00n/a75.694.030.064.242.621.9188.8.131.52%0.0% Average - offshore15.440.114.827.125.517.413.93
10、.219.4%3.6% Po. up/down NI growth (%)P/E(x) CompanyTickerRating Mkt cap US$ bn TP (lc) Current price (lc) 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 5 Table of contents Focus charts and tables 2 PCB leaders rise on 5G and Datacom cycle 3 Valuation tables 4 Beneficiary of the 5G upcycle 7 Sizeable demand f
11、or BTS and network equipment . 7 PCB content in unit device increases . 10 One of the biggest winners among telecom PCB . 13 Chinese PCB companies to gain share 13 Growing with top telecom customers 14 Penetration of mmWave radar drives demand for high-frequency CCL . 17 Expanding demand in Datacom
12、20 Domestic substitution another key driver 23 Potential explosion in IC substrates . 23 Low localisation against large demand 23 Shennan: Hidden champion of domestic substitution 24 Domestic substitution of high-end CCL . 25 Mismatched industry structure 26 Shengyi: Leader of domestic players 28 In
13、itiate coverage on Shennan and Shengyi 30 Revenue/earnings growth driven by capacity release and mix improvement . 30 Shengyi: 20% revenue CAGR, GM expansion, 28% NI CAGR 30 Shennan: 25% revenue CAGR, GM stable, 24% NI CAGR 32 China PCB/CCL sector rerate driven by 5G/data . 34 We rate Shengyi OUTPER
14、FORM and Shennan NEUTRAL . 36 Key investment risks . 37 HOLT view on China PCB Sector 38 CFROI acceleration in Chinese PCB sector set to continue . 38 CFROI growth for SCC and SY Tech among the largest . 38 Shengyi: HOLT warranted price of Rmb47.43 based on our estimates . 39 Shennan: HOLT warranted
15、 price of Rmb106.86 based on our estimates . 40 Shengyi Technology 42 Appendix 44 High barriers in high frequency high speed CCL 44 High customer barrier in telecom, datacom and automotive 45 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 6 Key company milestones 47 Management Bio 48 Majority shareholders 49
16、Financing projects 49 Shennan Circuits 50 Appendix 52 Business layout 52 Capacity layout 53 Key company milestones 55 Management profiles 56 Majority shareholders 57 Financing projects 57 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 7 Beneficiary of the 5G upcycle This report focuses on key Chinese Printed
17、Circuit Board (PCB) supply chain players. Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) is the core material of PCB. With glass fibre or wood pulp paper as the reinforcing material, a CCL is a type of product through lamination with copper clad on either one side or both sides of the reinforcing material after being s
18、oaked in resin. PCBs are made through processing on CCLs including etching and lamination. Components are generally soldered onto the PCB to both electrically connect and mechanically fasten them to it, which we call the PCB Assembly (PCBA). They form the backbone of all major electronic components,
19、 widely used in telecom infrastructure, server we see further ASP improvement with increasing penetration rate of high-frequency. Assuming each BTS consists of three AAUs, the PCB content in 5G AAU will reach Rmb9,600 per BTS, almost 6x that of 4G, indicating AAU is the most flexible value point for
20、 PCB in 5G. Here we ignore some situations where the antenna and RRU are not integrated into AAU, and BTS covers six sectors, which does not make a great difference to PCB demand due to low popularity. Figure 21: PCB content in 5G AAU almost 6x vs in 4G CCL Layer Area per AAU (m2) ASP (Rmb/m2) Value
21、 per BTS (area*ASP*3) 5G AAU Power division board High- frequency 2L+4L or 6L 0.32 4,000 3,840 TRX board FR4 + high- frequency 12-16L 0.32 6,000 5,760 Total 0.64 5,000 9,600 4G RRU RRU board FR4 + High- frequency 12-16L 0.14 4,000 1,680 Source: Credit Suisse estimates The PCB consumption in DU/CU is
22、 almost equal to BBU in 4G. In each DU/CU, there are four line-cards, including one board for main processing WUS, Boardtek, Gold Circuit and HannStar Board in Taiwan, ISU and Daeduck in South Korea; TTM, Multek (acquired by Dongshan Precision in China) and Sanmina in the US. Among these, Shennan, W
23、US, TTM, ISU, Sanmina and Gold Circuit belong to the first-class players who serve as core suppliers offering high-end products above 16L, while other small names mainly served as back-up capacity. 16 July 2020 China Components Sector 14 Figure 27: Chinese PCB names GM outperforms foreign peers Figu