主题演讲 _ 前瞻性方法：可操作（而非被动应对）的网络威胁情报.pdf

1、Bridge Building and Problem Solving for the Worlds Wicked Problemst h e C E N T E R f o r A N T I C I P A T O R Y I N T E L L I G E N C EStrategic v.Anticipatory IntelligenceStrategic Intelligence:Identify and assess the capabilities,activities,and intentions of states and non-state entities to deve

2、lop a deep understanding of the strategic environment,warn of future developments on issues of enduring interest,and support U.S.national security policy and strategy decisions.Anticipatory Intelligence:Anticipatory intelligence is a multi-domain approach designed to foresee emergent security phenom

3、ena generated by global complexity i.e.colliding outcomes of climate change,infosphere contamination,critical supply chain disruptions,crisis migration,economic contagion,unexpected yields from service attacks,social trust erosion,escalation spirals.Anticipatory intelligence provides methods to navi

4、gate uncertainty and design effective resilience strategies across future scenarios.InterdependentNon-Proportional Inputs&OutputsWillful Adaptable NodesInterconnectedResilience Assessment ResistanceRetentionRecoveryResurgenceRecommendationsRedundancyDiversityCentralization/DecentralizationAdaptabilityImagingKey Resilience Characteristics:Identify Vulnerabilities+Stakeholder EngagementSelf-OrganizationCommunicationAlignmentRecommend Right Tradeoffs+Cultural Topography Analytic ToolIdentityNormsValuesPerceptual LensTrifactor Convergence Emergence