21世纪的投资与增长：可持续性、韧性与水资源.pdf

1、Investment and growth for the 21st Century:sustainability,resilience,and waterGlobal Water SummitNicholas SternIG Patel Professor of Economics&Government,London School of Economics and Political Science Prepared in collaboration with Delfina GodfridMay 2025London School of Economics and Political Sc

2、ienceWhere we are and where we should go:climate crisis and growth opportunityWater resilience:economic resilience,investment,and growthLessons 20 years on from Stern Review:investment and growth in a changing worldStructure2For example,wildlife populations have declined globally by 73%on average in

3、 the last 50 years(WWF,2024)3x4 increase in income per capitax13 increase in economic outputSince 1950:50%increase in life expectancy60%to 8%of global population living in extreme povertyThe world experienced a x7 increase in economic losses associated with extreme weather,climate,and water events(f

4、rom the 1970s to the 2010s)(WMO,2021)Due to human activities,they are now at levels the world has not seen for more than ten million years(Krajick,2023)Causing rising temperatures and climate impactsClimate change drives biodiversity loss and biodiversity loss drives climate changeAs ecosystem servi

5、ces decline or disappear,their degradation cascades into economic sectorsWhen an ecosystem is degraded,it becomes more vulnerable to tipping points:ecological degradation+climate change can turn forests into grasslands,and grasslands into desertsSource:Authors elaboration based on Kemp et al.(2022)T

6、he Complex Interconnections of Climate Change ImpactsImpacts propagate throughout human and natural systems,generating disruption,disequilibrium and instabilities.Deeply damaging to development for all.Poorest hit earliest and hardest.Most effects associated with water(storms,floods,sea-level rise)o