【中国银河】4月债市回顾及5月展望：供给高峰将至，把握超调机会-250428（20页）.pdf

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1、 MEETING DATE200-225225-250250-275275-300300-325325-350350-375375-400400-425425-4502025/05/07-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%89.6%2025/06/180.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1%57.2%36.7%2025/07/300.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.8%46.3%41.1%7.9%2025/09/170.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.9%38.0%42.1%14.5%1.6%2025/10/290.0%0.0%0.0%0

2、.0%2.3%24.3%40.5%25.6%6.7%0.6%2025/12/100.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%17.0%35.1%30.5%13.0%2.7%0.2%2026/01/280.0%0.0%0.5%7.0%23.4%33.5%24.3%9.4%1.8%0.1%2026/03/180.0%0.2%3.2%13.7%27.5%29.7%18.2%6.2%1.1%0.1%2026/04/290.1%0.9%5.6%16.9%28.0%27.1%15.4%5.1%0.9%0.1%2026/06/170.2%1.9%8.0%19.2%27.8%24.6%13.3%4.2%0.7%0.0%2

3、026/07/290.5%2.9%9.9%20.7%27.3%22.7%11.7%3.6%0.6%0.0%2026/09/160.6%3.0%10.1%20.8%27.2%22.5%11.6%3.5%0.6%0.0%2026/10/280.6%3.2%10.3%20.9%27.1%22.3%11.4%3.5%0.6%0.0%2026/12/090.4%2.4%8.1%17.7%25.2%23.8%14.8%5.9%1.5%0.2%CME FEDWATCH TOOL-CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES 新增专项债新增专项债新增一般债新增一般债注资特国注资特国超长期

4、特国超长期特国1月1025445312048100526692月1736841853920104682183月128255964363574024864月7808-20323012322617165012105月E1902032008350735200522502480特别国债特别国债亿元亿元政府债净发行政府债净发行国债净发行国债净发行新增地方债新增地方债置换隐债专置换隐债专项债项债 公布日期公布日期公布时间公布时间事件/指标名称事件/指标名称市场预期市场预期2025-05-07待定4月外汇储备(亿美元)2025-05-07待定4月官方储备资产:其他储备资产(亿美元)2025-05-07待定4

5、月官方储备资产:基金组织储备头寸(亿美元)2025-05-07待定4月官方储备资产:特别提款权(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月出口金额:当月同比(%)-2.052025-05-09待定4月进口金额:当月同比(%)2025-05-09待定4月进出口金额:当月值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月出口金额:当月值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月进口金额:当月值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月进出口金额:累计值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月出口金额:累计值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月进口金额:累计值(亿美元)2025-05-09待定4月贸易差额:累计值(亿美元)

6、2025-05-09待定4月进出口金额:当月同比(%)2025-05-09待定4月进出口金额:累计同比(%)2025-05-09待定4月出口金额:累计同比(%)2025-05-09待定4月进口金额:累计同比(%)2025-05-1009:304月PPI:同比(%)-2.772025-05-1009:304月CPI:同比(%)-0.172025-05-15待定4月M2:同比(%)2025-05-15待定4月新增人民币贷款(亿元)2025-05-15待定4月M1:同比(%)202