【招银国际】China Economy:PMI points to waning economic momentum-250801（5页）.pdf

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1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 1 Aug 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Economic Perspectives-PMI points to waning economic momentum PMI point

2、s to waning economic momentum Chinas manufacturing PMI weakened again after a brief rebound following the tariff truce.Demand softened as new order and export order indexes further contracted,indicating the export front-loading may be coming to an end.However,deflation pressure eased as raw material

3、 purchase price notably expanded and ex-factory price rebounded,thanks to the recent policy effort to curb the involution competition.Non-manufacturing PMI came in below expectation as both service and construction activities moderated.The July PMI signaled the weakening economy in 3Q.Deterioration

4、in both external and domestic demand is expected to drag on the economy,as export front-loading faded and policy effect on consumption and real estate marginally declined since 4Q24.However,the policy easing window may not open until 4Q25 when durable goods retail sales sharply slow down due to high

5、er year-on-year bases and lower policy stimulus effects and China may have stronger motivation to advance economic rebalancing after a potential trade deal with the US.Manufacturing PMI further contracted with fading export front-loading.Manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.3%in July from 49.7%in June

6、,below market expectations of 49.6%.Demand deteriorated as new order index dropped to 49.4%in July from 50.2%,as new export order further contracted to 47.1%in July from 47.7%,the lowest month since the tariff truce,indicating that the export front-loading may be coming to an end.Production moderate